This is really a poll, but it’s not on a “less-than-cosmic” topic, so I chose not to put it in IMHO. Also, feel free to debate my premise if you don’t want to contribute a juicy tidbit of your own.
Here we are less than two weeks from Election Day. If history is any indication, Karl Rove has something he’s going to let loose soon. The MO is that he breaks the story enough time before Election Day for it to gain momentum, but not enough time for a thorough debunking. Also, the “story” should attack Kerry’s greatest strength. It’ll be something big enough that on Election Day, all the pundits will be saying “Will the accusations of (…) cost John Kerry the election?”
Some of my guesses are below. Probably many or most of these things have already been said, but not loudly or by anyone respectable.
Kerry sexually harassed someone
Kerry cheated on his wife (bonus points for an illegitimate child, a coerced abortion, hush money, or a paramour of undesirable foreign extraction, especially French or Muslim)
“Video” or “audio” of “Kerry” “saying” words to the effect of “I hate the American people and everything they stand for”.
Kerry is an atheist
Kerry donated money or otherwise supported a group linked to terrorism
Kerry cheated on his taxes
Kerry is gay (bonus points if he harassed a straight, Christian guy)
Kerry was involved in a “fragging” in Vietnam
“Video” or “audio” of “Kerry” “saying” he hates Jews, blacks or especially Hispanics. Bonus points if a racial slur is used.
and Rove’s favorite tactic,
Some ridiculous and offensive but easily refutable attack on Bush, especially one which by implication attacks a widely favored belief of the electorate, like religion or patriotism, which “appears” to have originated with the Kerry campaign.
Remember, folks, the sky’s the limit here - we’re talking Karl Rove. What do you think he’s got up his sleeve? We’ll revisit this after the election to see who got it right.
If there was really a surprise, I don’t think he’d have waiting this long. Maybe I’m wrong, but I know I’m tired of the speculation. If this is a light-hearted thing, cool, but I’m not sure.
I think it’s going on now but you can’t see it. Things like tinkering with the voter registration rolls to disenfranchise select groups of voters. Things like tampering with the electronic ballot counting, or shorting the supply of ballots in key areas.
What Rove probably has is a lie. The problem with lies in this election is that they are being debunked very, very quickly. Frex, the Swift Boat vets would ordinarily have been quite a coup for somebody who operates like Rove, but their lies got debunked so very, very quickly that they wound up not having much of an effect overall. Note there WAS a dip in Kerry’s numbers for a time, however, before the debunking got started.
Also note that after each of the debates the networks had fact checkers examining the candidates’ claims. Neither was able to get away with any whoppers.
What I think is that in about a week and a half we’ll hear an enormous whopper about Kerry from some difficult-to-reach-or-check source. The Pubbie noise machine will play it for all it’s worth, with hopes it result in a dip in Kerry’s numbers right about election day. We’ll see.
If Rove had anything serious and true, he’d have played it by now.
Your saying that in past campaigns he’s worked for, Karl Rove has released suprises of this nature just before the election? What are some examples?
I think a blatent lie might backfire on the BC04 though, the media will be fixated on the election, and if Rove has a reputation for actions like this in the past, they may react more sceptically then one would presume from the media reaction in elections past.
I’m surprised nobody has yet even mentioned the most obvious ploy of all: Bring out Osama bin Laden from that cell in Pakistan where they’ve been holding him for the past six months!
It’s not going to be that. As someone pointed out in another GD thread, if they were planning this then the Administration would have been talking bin Laden up for months now, saying how dangerous he is, how he’s a unique threat, al Qaeda would be broken without him, etc. etc.
Instead, they continue to downplay his importance.
“October Surprise” referred originally to speculation that Reagan got the Iranians to delay releasing the hostages until after the inauguration, so Carter wouldn’t get credit for it. That actually goes another level beyond what I’m talking about here. I’m just talking about Rove launching a serious but unsubstantiated allegation against Kerry at the right time. Not that Rove would be averse to a real October Surprise, mind you.
According to this study the bump in presidents approval after a rise in terror alert lasts about a week, so I’d say your too early. I’m guessing the first half of next week.
Yet only 4 threads appear under the search for “october surprise hostage”. Regardless, my point is that this thread has been done, and it’s been done often - all under a variation of an “October surprise”. The term has obviously changed to fit the purposes of the 2004 Presidential Elections.
