Not to be morbid but we have two former Presidents who have a reasonable possibility of dying before November 2016. And two others who are unlikely to die but anything’s possible. This made me wonder how the death of a former President might affect the way people voted.
So have there been times when a former president died in the months before a Presidential election? And was it seen as a factor in the election outcome?
So, the following presidents died in an election year:
James Madison
John Quincy Adams
James Buchanan
Grover Cleveland
Woodrow Wilson
Herbert Hoover
Harry Truman
Of those, the person who died closest to an election was Herbert Hoover, who died October 20th, 1964.
Herbert Hoover died two weeks before the 1964 election. I’m not sure anything could have changed that election’s outcome that late.
I am thinking that if Jeb were the nominee and Bush Sr. died the week or day before, how would that affect the election? Would it get sympathy votes, or would it remind everyone of what Jeb BUSH comes from?
I have the sense that GHWB is thought of rather affectionately, when he is thought of at all. My gut tells me his passing close to the election, if JEB! is the nominee, would get his son some sympathy votes. No clue if it would be enough to give us our 3rd Bush.
Woodrow Wilson died in February 1924. One of his allies, Newton Baker, attempted to invoke Wilson’s death to advantage at the ensuing Democratic Party Convention, to argue for approval of the League of Nations in the party platform.
Baker described Wilson as “standing at the throne of God” and “using” Baker to say, “Save mankind, do your duty”–that is, take America into the League of Nations. The delegates found Baker to be very moving and melodramatic, but voted against the League anyway.
There’s also a good chance a lot of those sympathy votes might evaporate when GWB keeps getting shown at the funeral, reminding everyone of who else JEB! is related to.
When an ex president dies, the media spends weeks gushing about him. Even Nixon had his share of gushing and fawning. It would definitely give Jeb! a boost in the polls as his campaign would most likely make the most of all that positive remembrance of his dad’s presidency and policy.
This isn’t exactly votes, but a good comparator would be to look at Biden’s approval ratings after the death of his son. They are basically flat, until then at which point they rise steadily. So GHW’s death might be just the break the Jeb campaign has been waiting for.
This is something that I had never thought about, but now see as a very real possibility. In the absence of GHWB’s death, I think a Bush/Clinton election goes to Clinton easily. But if GHWB can time his death well, I could see a pretty significant sympathy effect tipping the balance the other way. Just total intuition-based WAG, though. Sheesh.
Reagan died about 5 months before the '04 election. I recall the Rs making a big gushy maudlin deal about it, then the news cycle rolled over and it faded into being forgotten about. As far as I could tell, its impact was minimal, if any.
You’ve got just the right attitude for the Celebrity Death Pool. C’mon over! 