I mean, when will the incidence of new cases start to drop off, naturally? If you look at any disease epidemic, the incidence of new infections will start to drop off when either of two things takes place:
(1) the vectors of the virus cannot infect any new victims, because they are dead or too seriously ill to pass on the virus
(2) the population declines such that the infection can no longer spread from an infected region to an uninfected one
So, will here be a point when AIDS will naturally disappear from the human population? Or will there always be enough infected people who will be able to pass the virus on?
As I recall from reading, bubonic plague finally disappeared from Europe when saniatry enginering had advanced to the point where rats and mice could be controlled. One writer (Hans Zinnzer) suggested that the end of the plague was due to the death of all of the local native (Norway) rat species. In a place like Africa (where AIDS is very much a pandemic), it appears that little can be done to stop the disease (unless a reliable vaccine is developed).
Any epidemiologists here? Is there any hope that AIDS will die out at some point?