It is up to Obama. If he wants it, it is his.
I don’t think this is right. She could definitely beat Obama in a primary run. She doesn’t need the black vote to do that. Hell, she could do it without one black vote. (Assuming Obama’s popularity continues to wane and Dems are looking for a change. :D) She’d have a harder time in the general, as a lot of blacks would be pissed at her and stay home.
You’re dreaming. If she couldn’t do it in 2007-08, when she was the prohibitive favorite with a lot of early backing from influential and elected black Democrats, and he was a relatively obscure first-term senator (notwithstanding his big speech at the '04 convention), then there’s no way in hell she’s taking the nomination from him when he’s the incumbent President and she’s been in his Cabinet, saying nice things about him up to now.
I think there’s a big difference between then and now. in 2008 Obama was selling Utopia. Now people see what his Utopia is and don’t like it. If things turn around and he gets his footing back, I agree that he’d be untouchable. But if the election were now, and Clinton had resigned a year ago, she could claim that she’s been disappointed with the way Obama has handled domestic issues. He’d keep the black vote, but now that his Utopia has been defined by reality, I can see Clinton winning in a landslide.
I’m assuming you’re talking about his approval ratings (which really aren’t that low for a first-term president in the second year of his administration). Remember that, yes, his approval ratings have dropped on both the left and the right. But they’ve dropped on the left because some people feel that he hasn’t done enough to bring about the things he talked about in his campaign, not because they don’t like the things he talked about in his campaign. The idea that anyone voting in Democratic primaries is actually going to vote for a primary challenger to Obama (other than the fringe who always vote for the Green candidate) is ludicrous. And the idea that those people are going to vote for the Republican in the general should really get anyone who admits to having that idea a mandatory appointment with a court-ordered psych evaluation.
Huh? I said nothing about anyone voting for a Republican. Anyone who sees Clinton’s name and think I was implying that she’d run as a Republican really needs to think things through a little better. But since you brought it up, Obama did get a lot of the Independent vote. He won’t be getting that again. The curtain has been pulled back on his version of Utopia. While those on the left might like it, the Independents, as well as some dems, don’t like it. I predict that his damage will be limited to one term.
Moderate independents are not going to vote for a right winger. The numbers of self-identified indies is currently inflated by teabaggers who don’t want to call themselves Republicans.
After the election I remember hearing some pundit (can’t remember who it was) saying that the master plan is for Biden to drop out of the '12 race, to be replaced by HRC, as part of a deal the three made. Who knows? For the life of me, I don’t know why Obama would want a second term. This is a guy who would take big heat for an increase in the number of heart attack deaths after he cured cancer.
Remember, HRC had all the momentum up until her Florida and Michigan primary victories were vacated by the DNC. You don’t pull that off without cutting a deal.
For that matter, I can’t understand why anyone would want a first term as President.
This point needs to be emphasized. Any President who won a national campaign for his office less that 4 years previous still has a powerful organization that is mostly intact. He has people in every state that helped him get the requisite votes just 4 short years prior.
Ford had none of that. While Reagan’s challenge was very impressive, it can’t be compared to an elected sitting President. Buchanan’s challenge to George H.W. was a flash in the pan.
Kennedy probably did the best job of anyone in recent years. There you had a liberal which impressed the base of the party. The sitting President was wildly unpopular and perceived as horrifically ineffective. Teddy still didn’t come close.
Humor. It is a difficult concept.
Believe it or not, Gallup just did a what-if poll about Hillary taking on Barack: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/30/poll-obama-clinton-2012/