Which Congressional Seats are likely to change hands?

In the coming election what seats are troubled and likely to change hands?

NY-23 will be a toss-up. (The whirring sound you hear is my Republican ancestors spinning in their graves.) And once again it will be a bellwether for the GOP. If they field a moderate, they will win back the seat. If they field an ideological conservative, and Owens has made any decent showing in the 2010 Congressional session, he will win reelection.

IIRC, the seat gets redistricted into a safe Dem seat before the next election, so it probably won’t be competitive anymore.

That could be an interesting trick. Most of Upstate outside the Big Aix cities was traditionally considered ‘safe’ Republican territory, with a few minor exceptions for particular candidates. The last non-Republican Congressman from the ‘core counties’ of the district was a Whig.

Yea, seems like I heard it a few places when the special election was going on, but now I can’t find a cite, so maybe I’m confused.

And, either way, the census and redistricting won’t affect the 2010 election, but the 2012 election.

Well, we know Dodd and Dorgan will not be running for re-election to the Senate – which does not necessarily mean the Dems will lose those seats.

Yes, but six Republicans are giving up their seats. It doesn’t mean much.

Here is my totally unscientific preliminary prediction for the senate races.

  • indicates incumbent seeking re-election - indicates incumbent stepping down.

NY Chuck Schumer D + Safe
MD Barbara Mikulski D + Dunno
NC Richard Burr R + Dunno
OR Ron Wyden D + Safe
CA Barbara Boxer D + Safe
CO Michael Bennet D + Safe
HI Daniel Inouye D + Safe
NV Harry Reid D + Possible Loss
NY C Kirsten Gillibrand D + Probably Safe
VT Patrick Leahy D + Safe
WI Russ Feingold D + Safe
AL Richard Shelby R + Safe
AK Lisa Murkowski R + Safe
AZ John McCain R + Safe
IA Chuck Grassley R + Possible Loss
LA David Vitter R + Safe
OK Tom Coburn R + Safe
SC Jim DeMint R + Safe
SD John Thune R + Safe
UT Bob Bennett R + Safe
GA Johnny Isakson R + Safe
PA Arlen Specter D + Safe
AR Blanche Lincoln D + Probably Safe
ND Byron Dorgan D – Probable Rep
MA B Paul Kirk D – Likely Dem
DE A Ted Kaufman D - Likely Dem
IL Roland Burris D – Likely Dem
CT Chris Dodd D – Likely Dem
FL George LeMieux R – Likely Rep
KS Sam Brownback R – Likely Rep (Unless Sebelius runs, unlikely)
KY Jim Bunning R – Tossup
MO Kit Bond R – Tossup (interesting race it looks like)
NH Judd Gregg R – Tossup
OH George Voinovich R - Tossup

I could see Michelle Bachman losing her seat if she keeps up the craziness.

Why? She’s absolutely adored by her base.

True, she’s adored by the base, but doesn’t she live in a fairly moderate district?

Just an FYI - the special election in MA for Ted’s Senate seat is next Tuesday. Kirk isn’t running, and depending on whose poll you believe, the Republican candidate is either 1 point ahead or 15 points behind the Democratic candidate.

I don’t know what her district is like.

Right. MA elected Mitt Romney though I have a hard time believing Taxachussetts will elect a Republican for Ted Kennedy’s seat.

R+7 apparently. So leans Republican I guess. Elwyn Tinklenberg, who she defeated by like three points last time, is going to try again in 2010, which if nothing else means we can still make fun of his name for another year. I still hold that if he’d changed his name to "Max Power’ or something before running last year, Bachmann would’ve been toast.

Oh man that’d be awesome, Representative Tinklenberg. :wink:

I think we’re going to see Rand Paul take a Senate seat in Kentucky. Though I am creeped out by the fact that Ron Paul named his son Rand. It’s creepy to name your kid after Ayn Rand. If I were going to name my kid Rand, it would at least be named after the Rand Corporation. :wink:

Nah, he dropped out a while ago. The two contenders for the Dem nomination are Tarryl Clark and Maureen Reed. The consensus seems to be that both would be strong candidates.

With the economy being so bad, this is what is gonna decide it, come November. People traditionally vote the guy in office, out of office during tough times. The Republicans need to play up the lack of improvement since Obama took over. Yeah it wasn’t his fault, but at least for me, the economy has gotten 10 times as bad as it was a year ago.