In hindsight, if you had been able to vote in past elections knowing what you know today about the candidates, who would you vote for?
For the tactical voters (aka smartarses) and those whose states weren’t states back in the day - in every election you’re just transported back to the voting booth on the election day(s) to cast a vote for a candidate. You’ve no idea what state you’re in, but due to quantum spaceball mechanics you can’t leave until you’ve voted.
Please be patient with the looooong poll. I’ve only listed the top two candidates or it’d be even longer, there’s the ‘other’ option if you’d either vote for another candidate or spoil your ticket if none of the candidates are worthy of your vote. The historical winner is the first name listed.
I already have another problem. There really was no way to vote in the first few elections, unless you were an elector (technically still true but at least we all vote for the slate of electors who support our desired candidate).
Assume you’re one of them, back in the day. Before 1920 if you’re a woman you couldn’t vote, so again assume you can.
Oh no, what I meant if your state wasn’t a state back in the day. So if for example you’re a Texan voting before 1845 it’s random state time (you’re still a citizen after all!). My apologies. If your state is a state at the time of the election you’re good to vote.
I, as me, would not have existed “back in the day” - my knowledge of history, to be obvious, would greatly influence any hypothetical vote from 200 years ago.
As the son of poor-dirt mid-western farmers (and, it the case of my father, also dirt-poor) who would not have been exposed to the social and cultural events of the 20th century would likely to lead me to vote very differently than I now do (or ever have).
Try to guess how each of your parents/grand-parents/great-grandparents/great-great, etc would have voted in the elections in which they could have.
1789: George Washington (No Party)
1792: George Washington (No Party)
1796: John Adams (Federalist)
1800: Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican)
1804: Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican)
1808: James Madison (Democratic-Republican)
1812: DeWitt Clinton (Federalist)
1816: James Monroe (Democratic-Republican)
1820: James Monroe (Democratic-Republican)
1824: John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican)
1828: John Quincy Adams (National Republican)
1832: Henry Clay (National Republican)
1836: William Henry Harrison/Hugh L. White/Daniel Webster/Willie P. Mangum (Whig)
1840: William Henry Harrison (Whig)
1844: James K. Polk (Democratic)
1848: Without Hindsight-Zachary Taylor (Whig), With Hindsight-Lewis Cass (Democratic)
1852: Winfield Scott (Whig)
1856: John C. Fremont (Republican)
1860: Abraham Lincoln (Republican)
1864: Abraham Lincoln (National Union)
1868: Ulysses S. Grant (Republican)
1872: Ulysses S. Grant (Republican)
1876: Without Hindsight-Rutherford B. Hayes (Republican), With Hindsight-Samuel J. Tilden (Democratic)
1880: James Garfield (Republican)
1884: Grover Cleveland (Democratic)
1888: Benjamin Harrison (Republican)
1892: Benjamin Harrison (Republican)
1896: William McKinley (Republican)
1900: William McKinley (Republican)
1904: Theodore Roosevelt (Republican)
1908: William Howard Taft (Republican)
1912: Theodore Roosevelt (Progressive)
1916: Charles Evan Hughes (Republican)
1920: James Cox (Democratic)
1924: Robert LaFollette (Progressive)
1928: Without Hindsight-Al Smith (Democratic), With Hindsight-Herbert Hoover (Republican)
1932: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)
1936: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)
1940: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)
1944: Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic)
1948: Harry Truman (Democratic)
1952: Dwight Eisenhower (Republican)
1956: Dwight Eisenhower (Republican)
1960: Richard Nixon (Republican)
1964: Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic)
1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democratic)
1972: Richard Nixon (Republican)
1976: Gerald Ford (Republican)
1980: Ronald Reagan (Republican)
1984: Ronald Reagan(Republican)
1988: George HW Bush (Republican)
1992: William Jefferson Clinton (Democratic)
1996: William Jefferson Clinton (Democratic)
2000: Al Gore (Democratic)
2004: Without Hindsight-John Kerry (Democratic), With Hindsight-George W. Bush (Republican)
2008: Barack Obama (Democratic)
2012: Barack Obama (Democratic)
I’ve picked winners 42 out of 56 elections with hindsight, 41 without
By Party:
Republican-22 (21 without hindsight)
Democratic-18 (same without hindsight)
Democratic-Republican-6
Whig-3 (4 without hindsight)
National Republican-2
Progressive-2
Federalist-2
National Union-1
In the 1800 election, Adams was Jefferson’s opponent.
I understand what you did, because Burr, as Jefferson’s running mate, got the same number of votes, but really the vote was between Adams and Jefferson. Those 37 votes by the electors were just an embarrassment.
Knowing what I know now, I would have voted for Adams.
That one was the toughest one for me. I like Ike and think he did a pretty good job, but I like Adlai and wonder how he would have done.
By the way, I chose to interpret the poll as a series of separate polls, one for each election, each assuming that history was unchanged up until the time of that particular election. Otherwise, who knows who the candidates for later elections would have been or what we would have known about them.
I don’t get this. You prefer Gore over Bush in 2000. And would have voted for Kerry over Bush at the time, but Bush “in hindsight” Is it your view of Kerry that has declined in hindsight? Or you now feel better about Bush than you did in 2004?
Tactical voting. If Kerry had been elected, he would not have been implement anything but the most cosmetic of reforms due to the Congress still having a GOP majority and without the backlash against Bush for Iraq, the Democrats would not have been able to make the gains they did in 2006. As a result when President Kerry found himself confronting the more or less inevitable financial crisis and the consequent Great Recession he would have been defeated by a Republican candidate. And thus we’d have a Republican in charge to deal with the Recession at its height…
I wish the more prominent 3rd party candidates were on the ballot: Taft 1912 (he was actually the Democratic nominee! Teddy was on the Bull Moose ticket), Wallace 1968, Perot 1992.