I’m calling Utah. It’s a solid Republican state and the Mormons there are having their first chance to vote for one of their own. I’m predicting Romney hits at least 70%.
Hawaii always skews Democratic; it’s Obama’s other home state, it was the most lopsided state (well, unless you count DC) in 2008 and Utah has some catching up to do.
Utah was the third most lopsided Republican win in 2008, and I’d agree Romney’s being a Mormon could get it up there, but I’ll stick with Hawaii as my guess.
Idaho and Wyoming are also strongly red.
California for the Dems has been a foregone conclusion pretty much since I’ve been alive.
Oklahoma, where the last time around the Republicans won every county.
Hawaii and Illinois are solidly behind Obama. Nevada and Texas are solidly behind Romney. No way in Hell the results in those four states will be different from that.
Yes, but if a couple gets a flat tire and gets to the polling place late, it can throw the entire election.
Bzzzt. Incorrect. Obama won Nevada in 2008, and that great state is currently listed as up for grabs in every electoral map I’ve seen. Currently, Nate Silver is giving it a 81.8% chance of going for Obama; i.e. more likely than Obama’s chances to win re-election overall.
Idaho, however. Idaho is virtually 100% likely to go to Romney.
MA and NY are solidly blue.
Isn’t “in play” an either/or, black/white, yes/no kind of thing? ISTM that a state is either in play or it isn’t and there can’t be any “most” or “least” about it. If there is any doubt whatsoever about who will win a given state then the state is still in play, right?
D’oh! :smack: And of course, by “Nevada,” I meant “Utah.” Utah is what I was thinking, but somehow my fingers typed Nevada.
I figured as much. 
The number of states that are “in play” is probably by the number of those that are “out of play”.
Um, what? Sorry, I’ve read that sentence multiple times and I still can’t figure it out.
Aren’t most of the states NOT IN PLAY at all? There’s only a few states in play in this, and most elections.
So, since 1996? That’s only three elections.
I support a direct popular vote amendment. There will be no more swing states after that
I say this as a frustrated blue enclave Democrat in Texas. More people voted for Obama in Texas than in a few states he won combined. Why shouldn’t our votes count?
At least I can take hope that the Dems seem to be investing in Texas to make it the mother of all swing states in 2016 by making Julian Castro the keynote speaker this year.
You were probably fooled by all those casinos in SLC.
I live in California, and haven’t seen campaign ad one. Which works for me, We’re already getting Proposition ads, so don’t envy us too much.
I know. That’s why I asked which state was least in play. To keep in simple, which state do you think will poll the highest percentage of voters for one candidate?
On that basis it’s very likely Utah. It’s hard to tell in a lot of states because the party affiliation of record is based on voter registrations and independents don’t show up in the graphs I’ve seen. Utah has a 2:1 edge in registered Republicans over Democrats. Texas has a higher percentage of Republicans, but few Republicans in Utah won’t vote for Romney because he’s a Mormon, or any other misgivings they might have.