Sorry, typing carelessly. Forgot to include the word “dwarfed”.
The point being that there are only a few states that are up for grabs.
All of us can take a map and color in 40 states either red or blue and be virtually 100% certain that they will fall the way they’re colored in. As to which is most certain, it’s impossible to say. Take the Texas to North Dakota Great Red Wall, Utah, Mississippi, Alaska as equally certain Romney states. Take the Pacific coast, Massachusetts, Illinois, New York as equally certain Obama wins. Probably the easiest lock of all isn’t even a state- the District of Columbia.
I will marry a goat if Alabama goes for Obama.
That is all.
Pics, or it didn’t happen.
Romney bought Utah decades ago. Most everybody in Alaska is batshit insane, so that state is solidly Republican as well.
As a Californian, I like the Electoral College. It makes sure those nutballs in Orange County can’t skew the presidential results.
I’m not too worried.
That, and I will shove a flagpole in my urethra if DC goes for Romney. (Granted, not a state, but it does have some votes.)
I think the winner has got to be Hawaii: there’s no chance, less than zero chance if that were mathematically possible, that Romney could win there.
If the goat is FROM Alabama, it might already be spoken for.
“That goat doesn’t love you!”
Not strictly speaking a state, but I think DC’s got to be at least a good a lock for Obama as Utah is for Romney. 538 gives Obama 93.5% of DCs vote, while Romney has a mere 70% of Utahs vote.
Yeah DC is easily the most partisan “state”.
I believe Kerry is the only loser to carry CA since they became a state (1st election they were part of: 1852)
No, I just looked it up. Hancock in 1880, Blaine in 1884, Roosevelt in 1912, Nixon in 1960, Ford in 1976, and Gore in 2000 all won California.
With the Republican anti-porn platform plank, one would think Utah would actually be in play since Utah leads the nation in porn subscriptions per person.
Serious answer would be Utah or any of the deep south states that haven’t urbanized. So Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina. The Rick Santorum belt.
Nitpick: 4 elections.
*And *Clinton won California by 14 points in 1992, but I guess you could say it wasn’t a foregone conclusion.
To clarify and to emphasize what others have said:
You must be pretty young. California was fairly solidly Republican until 1992. Heck, it went for Ford in 1976 and Nixon in 1960!
The change is primarily in Southern California, I believe, due in large part to the large and growing Hispanic population.
fivethirtyeight has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities.
Don’t worry, you can always settle for Fluffy.
Maryland, has to be. About as blue as they get, and we’re all singing the blues.