Which state is the least in play?

[ElvisL1ves]

@Gangster_Octopus

The change is primarily in Southern California, I believe, due in large part to the large and growing Hispanic population.

IIRC Obama even took Orange County.

[Little_Nemo]

@Exapno_Mapcase

fivethirtyeight has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities.

Anyone who wants to put money on a bet that either candidate will get 100% of the votes in any state should PM me.

[colonial]

If non-Mormon Bush could win 71.54% of Utah’s vote in 2004
then Romney should go well over 75% this year.

I think the last time any state was that lopsided was 1944,
when Dixie was still the Democratic party’s “Solid South”.

FDR won 93.56% in Mississippi that year.

See link, select year from column on the left:

Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@ElvisL1ves

IIRC Obama even took Orange County.

Obama did not in 2008: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_County,_California#Government

McCain won 50.4% to 47.8%.

[suranyi]

@Little_Nemo

Anyone who wants to put money on a bet that either candidate will get 100% of the votes in any state should PM me.

What is meant is that the state will be won by the candidate in question with 100% probability, that is, it is a certainty. Of course no candidate will get 100% of the votes.

Interestingly, California is “only” given a 99.9% chance of going to Obama right now, and Texas is only given 98.8% chance of going to Romney. (These numbers change all the time as new information comes in. I think California was as “low” as 95% probability for Obama a few weeks ago.)

A few 100% states for Obama: New York, Maryland, Hawaii
For Romney: Idaho, Wyoming, Utah

[Little_Nemo]

@suranyi

What is meant is that the state will be won by the candidate in question with 100% probability, that is, it is a certainty. Of course no candidate will get 100% of the votes.

I know that. But people seem confused about the topic of the thread so I figured I should try to at least make some money off of it.

[Knorf]

@Little_Nemo

Anyone who wants to put money on a bet that either candidate will get 100% of the votes in any state should PM me.

It doesn’t mean that the candidate will receive 100% of the votes. It’s the % likelihood that the candidate will win the state. And they’re not quite 100%–you get there by rounding to three significant figures.

But yes, I agree there is truly a nigh 100% chance that Obama will win HI, as an example.

Edit: ah, ninjaed, and riposted. Ooh, and ninjaed by over half an hour. Folks, I’m really not usually this slow. Really.

Carry on.

[cmyk]

@Exapno_Mapcase

fivethirtyeight has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities.

How nice to see Michigan a solid, deep blue. Maybe it’s due to the shit economy, the union workers, or perhaps having the worst governor the world has ever elected.

[tim314]

@Exapno_Mapcase

fivethirtyeight has a state-by-state probability map. Several states, both red and blue, are at 100%. Mouse over to see individual probabilities.

Currently he has Vermont, New York, Maryland, D.C., Illinois and Hawaii as 100.0% for Obama. Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama are 100.0% for Romney.

[Siam_Sam]

@tim314

Currently he has Vermont, New York, Maryland, D.C., Illinois and Hawaii as 100.0% for Obama. Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama are 100.0% for Romney.

Oklahoma. As bad as I hate Texas, I’ve spent enough time in Oklahoma to know I would slit my wrists if I had to live there.

[silenus]

@Knorf

Folks, I’m really not usually this slow. Really.

Cite?

[Knorf]

@silenus

Cite?

My post is my cite?