Andrew Cuomo is already being talked about for 2016. If he were to run in 2012 I guess you could call that a credible challenge. But he won’t, of course.
I think** Dio** underrates the appeal of Rosie O’Donnell in the GOP, or overrates the appeal of Randall Terry in the Democratic Party.
Seriously, once I heard Randall Terry speak about his theory of government, I realized that he’s not just rabidly anti-abortion, he’s also against any government department not covered in a cursory high school survey of antebellum US history.
As for the OP. I think it’s just a thing in US political culture now that we let the sitting President run for a second term pretty much unchallenged in his own party. It’s kind of silly.
This. If somehow a serious opponent develops in the Democratic primary, that means the Republicans will win the election.
That’s it right there. It’s generally counterproductive for the party to primary a sitting POTUS absent some kind of extraordinary circumstance. The challenger (if he cares about his ideology at all) is just cutting off his nose to spite his face. There hasn’t been a serious primary challenge to a sitting POTUS since 1976, when Reagan made it interesting against Ford, but that was in the wake of Watergate. Obama has had no scandals yet. I don’t think he ever will, whether he serves one term or two. Whatever anyone else wants to say about the guy, I think he’s a legitimate straight arrow.
OK, but what if Randall Terry zaps President Obama by shooting bolts of lightning from his fingertips? Then could he win the Democratic primary?
If the democrats have to replace Obama at this point, they might as well concede the election now.
If you have an incumbant president, you are stuck with him.
Replacing your own guy is a tacit admission that he screwed up and you don’t really know how to run the country.
The ironic thing is that no president really has a fun second term. Bush had Katrina and the Great Recession and Iraq going south. Clinton had Monica. Reagan had Iran-Contra. Nixon had Watergate.
So really, they sign up for more abuse to validate the abuse they’ve already taken.
Maybe we should only have a single six year term.
I would say that Ted Kennedy’s challenge to Jimmy Carter in 1980 was a pretty serious one. Heck, if the Iranians hadn’t taken hostages, Teddy probably would have unseated Carter.
The interesting thing about caring about idealogy is that the challenge was entirely about idealogy.
In 1976, Ford was a country-club moderate Republican whom the Democrats allowed under the mechanisms of the 25th Amendment. The GOP rank and file didn’t care for him all that much. Reagan represented the conservative wing of the party that had been vying for control since 1964, and found themselves shunted to the back by Eisenhower-Nixon faction.
Same can be said about Ted Kennedy’s challenge of Carter. Liberals in the Democratic Party didn’t like Carter, felt he was too moderate.
Obama probably doesn’t have much to worry about in this regard. Even if the Moonbat left are disappointed he hasn’t cravenly surrendered to the Jihadis and turned us into a socialist paradise, they certainly aren’t going to help the Republicans win. The best thing that Obama has going for him is the Wingnut right will probably pick the GOP nominee.
Of course, if the economy stays in the crapper, even a nutbag like Bachmann can win.
Kennedy vs. Carter in 1980. Both efforts only served to damage the incumbent, as I mentioned already.
Why do anything during the primary when they can run a third party candidate during the general election and do some real damage, like Ralph Nader did in 2000?
Heck, just a credible 3rd party candidate in Florida could swing the election. Florida picked up 2 electoral votes in the last census. We actually have more electoral votes than New York now.
Don’t forget Lyndon LaRouche.
Randall Terry–now there’s somebody I forgot was still around. You stopped hearing about him around the time he started publicly supporting the people who murdered abortion providers. After that, even the hardcore pro-life zealots didn’t want to have anything to do with him.