Who do you want to win the Democratic nomination for President?

So for all the folks who like Bernie better but are reluctantly voting for Hillary because of the alleged “electability” factor, a couple of things: 1. If everyone who would rather have Bernie, votes for Bernie, we’ll get Bernie, 2. Bernie’s been getting elected and re-elected for 35 years (and from a fairly conservative state, no less), 3. Hillary’s national lead over Sanders is all gone now, and 4. He beats every Republican contender by larger margins than Hillary in poll after poll after poll for months now.

The poll also suggests that, contrary to widespread belief, Sanders may be the more electable of the two Democrats. In head-to-head matchups against each of the three Republican frontrunners, Sanders had a 10-point lead over Donald Trump, a four-point lead over Sen. Ted Cruz , and was tied with Sen. Marco Rubio . Clinton, in contrast, edged Trump by just five points, tied Cruz, and trailed Rubio by seven points.

As for the “pragmatism” argument, I (obviously) don’t see it that way. First, because Hillary isn’t simply pragmatic, she’s Right Wing, it’s not so much pragmatism as it is concurrence with the Republican mindset on the important issues that will be coming up. “Pragmatism” is just the latest spin/frame for “Blue Dog,” “Conservadem,” “Neo-Liberal,” and they’re all the same thing: right wing. On everything from war to the social safety net, she leans heavily to the right. Heavily. She won’t even commit to not cutting Social Security benefits. In fact, she’s on the record for being willing to cut benefits and possibly even turn what’s now a retirement and disability insurance program into a means-tested Welfare program. That’s the kind of “thing” she’d “get done” because Republican’s will be more than happy to gut Social Security. Is that what y’all really want?

Second, I see the notion of “pragmatism” as regards Hillary, as her already laying down her sword before she even enters the arena. To me, that’s not a leader. We need a fighter to protect our rights against the party that has spent the last four decades gutting them with the help of Democrats. President Obama has spent the bulk of his presidency being a “pragmatist” in an effort to get anything accomplished with a recalcitrant Congress. And I’ll be the first to admit that I studied him harder than most and understood clearly that that’s exactly what we’d be getting and a big reason why I supported him, where (I think it’s safe to say) most others had hoped he’d be a Progressive hero and are sorely disappointed that he hasn’t been. So if Democrats are disillusioned with Obama’s “pragmatism,” why settle for more of the same from Hillary?

However … the one time President Obama was wildly successful in getting something done against Republican obstruction was when the Republicans were threatening to shut down the government over the debt ceiling. He scheduled a national address, stood at a podium addressing the nation and called on us to pick up our phones and get on our computers and demand our Representatives do their jobs and do what “the People” want. We slammed their phones and servers so hard, systems were crashing all across the country and we got them to move on passing the debt ceiling increase.

That’s the kind of political revolution Bernie is talking about: keeping citizens involved in the process and inspiring us to force our legislators to act in our interests, not those of corporations and Wall Street. And we can do it. We’ve proven that.

Of course it would be more helpful to either candidate if we had better Progressive representation in Congress, but is that even possible? I contend that Hillary will not be an inspiration for people to flock to the polls in November to usher in a more Progressive Congress and vote for down-ticket candidates. She’s not even thrilling people to come to her rallies. But Bernie has people “fired up,” as it were, so much so that there is a running list of Progressive candidates who support his agenda that his supporters are working hard to spread the word about, donate to, and vote for in their districts. Will it be easy with the way the districts are currently gerrymandered? Of course not. But we can make progress. There’s a sea change happening in this country and I believe it’s going to move people into action with the right leader calling on us to take part and keeping us involved.

President Obama moved the Overton window slightly to the Left with the Affordable Care Act and the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, but he left us vulnerable economically by not doing nearly enough to rein in Wall Street. We need the next president to continue that movement, not stagnate us where we’ve sat for the past six years. FDR, JFK and LBJ all moved mountains for Progressive causes and societal advancement, not with “pragmatism” or “no we can’t” attitudes, but with determination and the public will to get it done.

We have the will; we need that leader.

And despite the perception that Bernie’s proposals are “too far out of the mainstream,” they’re not. Not even a little. Not even among Republicans!

More and More Americans Agree With Bernie Sanders, and Not Just Those Who Identify With the Left

Although pegged as a fringe candidate, Sanders’ views are surprisingly mainstream.

Polls show that Americans are upset with widening inequality, the political influence of big business, and declining living standards. Public opinion is generally favorable toward greater government activism to address poverty, inequality, opportunity, and climate change.

Most Americans worry that government has been captured by the powerful and wealthy. They want a government that serves the common good. They also want to reform government to make it more responsive and accountable.

On those matters—both broad principles and specific policy prescriptions—Sanders is in sync with the vast majority of Americans.

Big Business

· About three-quarters (74 percent) of Americans—including 84 percent of Democrats, 72 percent of independents, and 62 percent of Republicans—believe that corporations have too much influence on American life and politics today, according to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll. In contrast, only 37 percent think that labor unions exercise too much influence.
· The Pew Research Center discovered that 60 percent of Americans—including 75 percent of Democrats—believed that “the economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy.”
· Fifty-eight percent of Americans said they would support breaking up “big banks like Citigroup,” a key plank of Sanders’ platform and the goal of a bill that Sanders sponsored in the Senate.
· Seventy-three percent of Americans favor tougher rules for Wall Street financial companies, versus 17 percent who oppose stronger regulation.
· Sixty-four percent of Americans strongly or somewhat favor regulating greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, factories and cars and requiring utilities to generate more power from “clean” low-carbon sources.

Progressive Taxation

· More than three-quarters of Americans (79 percent) think that wealthy people don’t pay their fair share of taxes, while 82 percent believe that some corporations don’t pay their fair share of taxes.
· Sixty-eight percent of Americans favor raising taxes on people earning more than $1 million per year, including 87 percent of Democrats, 65 percent of independents, and 53 percent of Republicans.

Inequality and Poverty

· A strong majority (66 percent) say that wealth should be more evenly divided and that it is a problem that should be addressed urgently.
· Ninety-two percent of Americans want a society with far less income disparity than currently exists in the United States. …
· Sixty-nine percent of Americans—including 90 percent of Democrats, 69 percent of independents, and 45 percent of Republicans—believe that the government should help reduce the gap between the rich and everyone else. Eighty-two percent of Americans—including 94 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of independents, and 64 percent of Republicans—think the government should help reduce poverty.

Money in Politics

· Eighty-four percent of Americans think that money has too much influence in politics. Slightly more Americans (85 percent) want an overhaul of our campaign finance system
· Seventy-eight percent of Americans think that campaign spending by outside groups not affiliated with candidates should be limited by law.
· A majority of Americans (54 percent) believe that money given to political candidates is not a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment. In other words, they disagree with the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling.

Minimum Wage and Workers’ Rights

· A recent poll by Hart Research Associates found that 75 percent of Americans (including 53 percent of Republicans) support an increase in the federal minimum wage to $12.50 by 2020. Sixty-three percent of Americans support an even greater increase in the minimum wage to $15.00 by 2020.
· Eighty percent of Americans favor requiring employers to offer paid leave to parents of new children and employees caring for sick family members. Even more (85 percent) favor requiring employers to offer paid leave to employees who are ill.
· A significant majority of Americans support the right of workers to unionize, despite several decades of corporate-sponsored anti-union propaganda. Eighty-two percent believe that factory and manufacturing workers should have the right to unionize. A vast majority support the right to unionize for transportation workers (74 percent), police and firefighters (72 percent), public school teachers (71 percent), workers in supermarkets and retail sales (68 percent), and fast food workers (62 percent).

**Health Care and Social Security **

· Over 50 percent of Americans (including one-quarter of Republicans and nearly 80 percent of Democrats) say they support a single-payer “Medicare for All” approach to health insurance, something Sanders has long advocated. Only 36 percent oppose the idea. 12 percent are neutral.
· Seventy-one percent Americans support a public option, which would give individuals the choice of buying healthcare through Medicare or private insurers. …
· The Gallup poll found that 67 percent of Americans want to lift the income cap on Social Security to require higher-income workers to pay Social Security taxes on all of their wages. …

Higher Education

· More than three-quarters (79 percent) of Americans think that education beyond high school is not affordable for everyone in the U.S. who needs it. Seventy-seven percent believe that higher education institutions should reduce tuition and fees, while 59 percent and 55 percent respectively agree that state governments and the federal government should provide more assistance. …

Given that this is the temperature of the vast majority of the public, why shouldn’t we elect a president who says he’ll fight for us to get it as opposed to one who’s telling us right out of the gate that she won’t fight for this stuff? When did the presidency become about what they’re willing to do for us and not what we want? I mean, if we’re just going to throw up our hands and say, “We can’t get it anyway, so may as well let Wall Street and corporate CEOs continue to run the country,” why bother to have elections anymore?

We seem to go through these cycles in America where the wealthy elite claw their way into power, destroy us economically, get exposed for the danger their greed is for society and we usher in new leadership to reverse course for our protection and security. We thrive for a few decades with working programs like tuition-free public universities (and not just in California and New York), strong unions helping raise wages and working standards across the board, the GI Bill, etc., and then the greedy bastards buy themselves a few presidencies and screw us over again. It’s been nearly half a century of destruction of the middle and working class; the pendulum is swinging back now, and rightfully so.

Millennials are fed up and they’ll never vote for Hillary. New Hampshire bore that out. And don’t be too quick to dismiss them, as they’ve now surpassed us Baby Boomers as a voting constituency.

It finally happened: This year, millennials surpassed baby boomers as the largest share of the U.S.'s voting-age population.

The U.S. now has 88 million millennials, people born 1981 to 2000. They are more than the sum of their student loans. This generation has tremendous political clout: Three of 10 voting-age Americans are millennials, and more members of the generation reach voting age each day.

A by-the-numbers look shows a generation poised to take over. Politicians ignore millennials at their peril.

Bernie’s now tied with Hillary in Nevada polls, too, by the way.

So come on, let’s take our country back from the Oligarchs who’ve effed it up so miserably, not hand it back to the same ones who did the bulk of the damage through deregulation, gutting safety net programs and imprisoning half the African American population — the Clintons.

TL;DR the giant wall of pasted text. I did read the opening numbered points though:

1.Has nothing to do with electability in the fall.

  1. No, Vermont is not a conservative state.

  2. Has nothing to do with electability in the fall.
    Only means he has a chance to win the nomination, just like McGovern did.

  3. Political scientists, and the noted electoral expert Nate Silver, agree that those “trial heat” polls are completely worthless.

Also, calling Hillary “right wing” is absurd hyperbole. Do any of the actual right wingers on this board want to cosign that description?

My goodness that poll showing them tied in Nevada smells fishy especially after just now reading the actual text. It reads like a push poll and makes me very distrustful of their reported results in every way.

PDF of poll’s text

“If the Nevada Democratic Caucus was being held today, for whom do you
think you would vote for?”

I think they need another “for” in there.

And yes, the questions seem a bit off.

Definite push poll. That is really sleazy for something pro-Bernie.

Pretty sure it’s a GOP thing. The Sanders people are just swallowing it because it’s good news to them so why question it. I doubt Shayna actually read the text of the poll, just the story about it.

A very absurd claim to make Shayna.

In truth they agree on most issues.

In a simplistic Right/Left categorization you have:

Hillary as the more experienced in the nuances of foreign policy but more supportive of interventionalism - a bit more likely to take the muscular position. That Iraq vote the biggest miss, albeit I don’t think that Bernie perceived that Colin Powell and company was lying either. He wins more left there.

Hillary more strong on gun control. She wins more left here.

Hillary, like Obama, was for TARP, which presumptively prevented a complete economic meltdown, and has been pretty much completely paid back. Sanders was against it. Some progressives would characterize that saving the economy is not of the left since it meant not letting Wall Street collapse. And of course most on the Right were against it as well. Whether it actually saved the economy or not I personally don’t buy the arguments that TARP was of the Right or the Left and that either Obama or Hillary is Right Wing for having voted for it.

Hillary has fought for healthcare reform for years and Obama ended up going with essentially what she proposed. Bernie has in his corner a strong defense of the VA system. And promises to distract from improving upon what has been accomplished with windmill tilts. Neither earns more left cred here and neither is Right Wing on the issue.

Otherwise they are mockable for how much they agree with each other and how often they have voted the same exact way.

FDR was a great president but do remember - he saved the banks and Wall Street as his very first order of business and then immediately went on to cut half a billion dollars in scheduled payments to veterans and federal employees. And the Depression was finally beat not by the New Deal but because of the deals he cut to Big Business creating what would become the military industrial complex. He dealt with the devil. And by so doing possibly saved the world as well as the economy.

Sanders as FDR? As JFK? It is to laugh.

Millennials BTW are not all progressives. They are more often moderate than any other age cohort and as likely to self identify as conservative as liberal.

When I have spare minutes I tend to turn on the news channels; it’s absolutely predictable that guests from the right will be comparing Sanders to Clinton and emphasizing how much of a Criminal/Evildoer/Menace Clinton is. You could make book on it.

That’s not random. The GOP could not possibly be more pleased at the way the Sanders campaign is roughing up Clinton.* Having Sanders be the nominee would be an early Christmas for most on the right.

*“Campaign” is what I wrote, not “Sanders” himself. Though he does get in his licks with the innuendo along the lines of ‘accepting a contribution means you have agreed to do whatever the contributor wants.’ He has to know that’s simplistic.

Trying to peruse that running list of progressive candidates … yeah not too many with much chance of winning. Notably most of the progressive caucus has not endorsed Bernie. They’ve endorsed Hillary more often.

Shouldn’t that, all by itself, disqualify her?

Don’t reply with nonsense if you didn’t bother to read the post and the provided links.

Bill and Hillary Clinton have moved the party deeply to the right. Read. The. Supporting. Links.

So if I unloaded thousands of words and a dozen links, you would read all of it? Please.

Anyway, new poll in SC has Hillary up 65-27, so the whole point will soon be moot.

Read. The. Links. (Okay, not all of them, be real). Even. Looked. Up. Some. Of. The. Running List of Progressive Candidates.

It’s. Pretty. Inane.

Really same old same old blathering in those links. The basic premise is that Gore, Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Obama … all are part of the Right Wing. They’ve taken money from large donors so they are bought. They do not demonize the entire business community so they are teh evil …

The inane argument demonizes the DLC for taking down Dean and proceeds to smear the various progressives like him who support Hillary as a progressive who actually cares more about problem solving than populist posturing as “no true progressives” … they are Right Wing now.

Apparently the “true progressive” endorses Sanders … except that despite naming that progressive wing the Warren Wing they also have to note not Sen. Warren has not endorsed Bernie … and again, few members of the progressive caucus have, I think just two, while many have endorsed Hillary. Few “true progressives” in Congress I guess.

Apparently the “true progressive” believes as in another of those links - that the proper progressive response to the failure of aging Baby Boomers to save for retirement is to expand Social Security benefits - the idea that soaking incoming workers more to pay more and more in benefits to people who are going to be living and thus taking those benefits longer and longer is unsustainable, and that an unsustainable system cannot be, well, sustained - is Far Right. The only component that can be consider is raising taxes in order to give out more. Even discussing anything else is Right Wing. The idea that the wealthiest might not need Social Security benefits as much, is cheating these elders out of what they deserve, and all these elders are owed this and more … the mantra of just raise taxes more - defining the rich who should pay more in than they will get out as all who make $118K or more - is the only response that is not Right Wing.

It. Is. Inane.

Don’t post nonsense in the first place Shayna.

The party before Bill Clinton moved it so deeply was Carter’s term that resulted in the rise of Reagan, McGovern and Humphrey’s humiliations, Johnson’s fairly forced departure, JFK as an effective liberal icon? … Maybe he would have been, most likely not … You want the ideological leftist purity of McGovern back, the purity that gave this country Nixon in charge? The failed presidency of Carter maybe?

BG, while I agree that Kissinger did some very bad things, the fact remains that the world right now is a very tangled web of international interrelationships. I do not believe that “sustaining American leadership” is an evil ambition. I think that shirking it leaves a vacuum that Russia, China, and fundamentalist extremists of all sorts will be happy to try to fill. That we need someone who is well versed in he complexities of the world and a realist in dealing with them. And really that link of yours, a little bit distorted. 2007 she never said “she would consider dropping nuclear bombs on militants in South Asia” … she stated “Presidents should be careful at all times in discussing the use and nonuse of nuclear weapons … Presidents since the Cold War have used nuclear deterrents to keep the peace, and I don’t believe any president should make blanket statements with the regard to use or nonuse” and refused to answer a hypothetical about it. Refusing answer about considering it is not the same as considering it other than to those trying to do hatchet jobs.

Which of those is an impeachable offense?

If Hillary is the nominee, expect several months this year of speculation about whether the Clinton Foundation sold foreign governments (read: Arabian kings) access to HRC’s State Department to enrich Bubba. It doesn’t even have to be true (although, sadly, it probably is); it just has to be credible.

Sanders is a difficult candidate for the Democratic Party to support. But while I’m arguing for the Democratic Party against the Republican Party, I’d rather be defending economic leftism than blatant corruption and high crimes.

If you wanted a good mainstream candidate without giant electability problems, well, too bad. You don’t have one now.

This is why I think he’s more electable than Mrs Clinton. Enthusiasm means something.

It depends on which “right” you mean. Sanders doesn’t play the gun control extremist in front of the cameras, and supports more auditing of the Federal Reserve.

Welcome to the “crazy socialist side.” :slight_smile:

OK, sure, for the sake of argument, let’s stipulate all of that. You’re apparently good or lucky at predicting the behavior of a Reagan-era populace. That doesn’t mean you’ll predict an election result as Millennial turnout increases. Your models of human behavior and prejudice are tied to a specific era.

Another thing: It’s very easy to stand off to the side of a sociopolitical system and predict that it will behave in conservative fashion. In fact, by predicting it, you can influence other people to respect conservatism of a kind. The prediction itself is a nudge with a small influence value.

But in democratic politics, we are not merely observers but actors. Behaving as if we cannot but lose is dangerously self-fulfilling. Trying to change a nation’s course accelerates the timetable of potential success in changing it.

Bernie Sanders is not a perfect candidate. His supporters are not perfect supporters. His campaign may be fatally flawed. But they are trying to hack away at a corrupt system, and they are the one army we have this year in position to make gains on that battlefield. It may be only changing hearts and minds to influence an election 12 years out, but it will have an effect. Incremental change does not more readily come from a doctrine of non-change than one of aspirational social evolution.

It’s a lot like that story from the years of the Dubya administration. You can study a system and think you’ve “mastered” it, not because you control it but because you understand it. But, meanwhile, the revolutionaries are making a new system, even if only partially and imperfectly.

I guess you’re right, but I had to really look to see it.

Still, the first question is whom they support, whence the 45% figure. Unless the actual pollgivers are starting with the Clinton Foundation or Wall Street stuff, surely that part reflects pre-existing bias.

The stuff about a candidate being honest, trustworthy, and caring about people “like you,” is pretty standard stuff, yes? Even the GOP want to be seen that way. Now, “more progressive” does push toward Sanders, obviously. But if those three things push toward Sanders, that may just mean that HRC is an objectively flawed candidate.

Does it go easier on Sanders?

Yes, I certainly think so, in a few ways. It tries to offer a desirable rationale for Sanders’s tax proposals, and even characterizes one as “on corporations.” That said, to many a Republican, the stuff they say about Sanders would be more negative than the stuff they say about Clinton.

Sanders doesn’t have corruption accusations dogging him, so he comes out better.

Sanders has two questions, one about taxes and the other about spending. Hillary has two about corruption and one about indictment (which sounds phony).

But it’s trying to hit each side’s negatives: Bernie will raise taxes, Hillary is corrupt. Obviously you and I don’t see raising taxes as a negative, whereas some other voters won’t see corruption as a negative.

Still, yeah, I guess it is a push-poll.

Still, the really interesting number is 67% definitely voting in the caucus. In Nevada? If that’s true, either this is a preselected bunch of known (probably previously active) Democrats, or turnout is going to be really high this time.

Edit:

OK, I guess that’s not that surprising, then.

Well, I think auditing the FR is one of the few things equally appealing to the far left and the far right. Most leftists don’t question the Fed’s legitimacy as such, but an audit is only common sense. Beyond that, I suppose, RWs would want the Fed abolished and LWs would want the Board democratically elected. But at least they could agree on an audit.

Bernie keeps talking about this. Only problem is, Dem turnout in Iowa and NH was way DOWN from 2008, while GOP turnout was up significantly.

Weren’t you the one who mistook me for a grandpa, rather than the early-forties guy I am? Not to mention BTW that I am married to a Millennial (she actually supports Hillary too, believe it or not).

I will have to show your accusation to one of my friends, as it will give him a laugh. He is kind of a pessimistic sort, and is constantly worried that American voters are on the verge of slipping back into another right wing era like the Reagan-Gingrich years. (It doesn’t help that we live in Missouri, which actually is getting redder as the “Great Sort” continues apace.) I always argue that the demographic changes the country is undergoing are inexorably turning the GOP, or at least its present right wing incarnation, into an aging, endangered species.

But I think it is foolish to move too far, too fast. We will get there either way, but your Overton Window approach (you didn’t use that term, but it’s clear that is what you are referencing) needlessly causes not just 12 years of suffering, but decades more to undo the SCOTUS damage.

Furthermore, Bernie is the worst kind of candidate to move the “window”. He’s too old, a walking Northeastern radical stereotype, with no blue collar or military bonafides. Someone like Sherrod Brown would be so much better.

:cool: I’m from Missouri. This state is probably going to give its electoral votes to Ted Cruz given the chance, and by a greater margin than Romney had. I have to push that aside.

As for primary & caucus turnout being down, that’s as much on the old Democratic partisans as on Sanders. If Hillary were walking away with it, turnout would be non-existent.

I expect still that Connie Schultz is not going to let Sherrod run for President anytime soon.

Do I wish that Sherrod Brown, Russ Feingold, or even Martin O’Malley were in this race? Sure. But this is what we have. And for me as a Democrat, I’d rather spend the next several months defending Sanders’s tax plans than Clinton’s corruption.