I’m kinda looking forward to it.
So Trump and Carson should be locks? Excellent. Who are the next most entertaining figures to fill in the bottom of the list? Cruz, right? Christie might be interesting, for what he provokes in others as much as what he brings himself. Jindal probably won’t make it, alas.
I’m going to sort the results so far.
Graham 20
Carson 18
Jindal 18
Kasich 13
Fiorina 12
Pataki 8
The most different from the poll referenced above is Santorum is in here, and Carson is in from the polls.
I didn’t vote for Carson because I honestly expected his polling to be dropping by now.
Non-politicians or politicians with a reputation for not being bullshitters have an advantage in this cycle. We probably won’t be lucky enough to see one win a nomination, but they’ll be unusually strong in this cycle.
Yeah, it’s like people are ignoring the available data and just going with what they think should happen. That’s annoying isn’t it?
Extrapolation isn’t ignoring data. If people think that Carson’s popularity will fall and thus he’ll be left out of the debates, that’s one thing.
Walker hasn’t formally announced yet, has he?
I think he’s supposed to announce on Monday. Gilmore in August. Not sure about Kasich.
ETA: July 21 for Kasich.
Who’s Gilmour?
(It’s hard to keep track of them all.)
Noooo!
A non-politician running for President is an oxymoron, and a politician without a reputation for bullshitting is logically possible, but incredibly rare in the real world.
Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia. Low entertainment value, I’m afraid.
When the word “politician” is used to describe a lifelong profession, then there are many who are not.
Definitely In:
Bush, Walker, Rubio, Carson, Trump, Huckabee, Paul, Cruz.
My picks from the ‘on the bubble’ crowd:
Perry, Fiorina.
I’m convinced that they’ll rig things somehow to keep their designated Girl Fight With Hillary candidate in there. For my last pick, I was torn between Perry and Christie, and I basically flipped a mental coin at that point.
The ‘on the bubble’ guy who lost my mental coin flip, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the stage:
Christie.
I think these guys would have to make a splash just to get on the bubble, but it’s possible:
Santorum, Kasich.
Not gonna make the Top Ten, period:
Jindal, Graham, Pataki, Gilmore.
I understand GOP-TV, which is running the event, tried to exclude Trump yesterday by making it a requirement that all candidates on the stage must have filed an election financial report and not merely an extension.
Trump says he plans on thwarting that effort by making the filing.
I think Trump has to have a spot in the top 10 or he throws a tantrum and goes independent. He’s already threatening to do it and he doesn’t need the GOP money, any way. He doesn’t need GOP backing to make headlines, either. The Party operatives don’t want a conservative independent in the race, so they’ll probably give him his slot, no matter what.
I would bet they dump Kasich from my list above and put Trump in his place. Kasich is not scintillating television.
Trump has to have a spot because he’s leading in at least one poll. Full stop. I don’t care how nutty someone is, we live in a democracy and candidates with significant support should be in debates.
IIRC, the standard they’re using is the top ten in an average of five national polls taken two weeks before the debate. So I don’t think leading in one poll a month before is enough, and given the jumpiness of polling like this, it shouldn’t be.
That said, unless Trump seems likely to qualify by either standard, unless his support craters in the next two weeks.
We don’t live in the Republican Party. I don’t think they’re under any more intrinsic obligation to let the public chose their candidates than IBM should have to require a public vote on its CEO. If the GOP wanted to decide its candidates by having party leaders meet in the famous smoke filled room, I don’t think there’s any moral issue with that.
Which means it’s basically just going to be a lottery for the bottom 6-8 spaces. The actual margin between #10 and #11 (or possibly even #4 and #11) is going to be too small for five polls to discern.
They still haven’t said which polls they’re going to use either. Just the five most recent “recognized by FOX News.” I expect that they’ll just pick the candidates they want and choose the polls to justify that decision.
Well, even being able to pick and choose polls, they’re still probably going to be locked in for the top six or so spots (specifically, they’ll probably be stuck with Trump). But I agree the idea behind not deciding which polls in advance effectively lets them choose the bottom three or four. I could imagine the relatively hawkish Fox news trying to cherry pick things to get Graham in, for example.
Man, I don’t understand the collective Dope wisdom on Ben Carson. Can I make bets with some of the people who didn’t include Carson on their lists? Because barring major medical emergency in the next few weeks, he’s gonna be on that stage, and I’d love to pick up some free money from the apparently numerous Dopers who think he won’t be.