And conversely, who do you think will not do well?
I’m hearing lots of speculation. I don’t know that I feel terribly comfortable with a prediction, but I think Jeb! may step in it somehow. He’s been surprisingly inarticulate a number times.
I personally don’t see the appeal, but Christie will probably do well.
So, what do you guys think?
I think the guy that does the best will be the guy who looks like he believes everything he says, regardless of whether or not it is true. In that respect, I have to give the nod to Ted Cruz. He can play to a friendly crowd better than the rest of the guys, in my opinion.
Those who will watch the debate are going to have their eyes on Trump. If he can avoid having to go into any depth at all, he’s toast. He knows bumper stickers, he doesn’t know much about policy. But if he can throw red meat to the right, he’ll stay in the lead.
Bush, Kasich, and Walker will (or should be) playing it conservatively (no pun intended). So I wouldn’t expect much from them.
Cruz and Christie need to step up, and have the debate chops to do so. If someone comes out a big winner, I’d put my money on those two.
Carson and Rubio do not have the debate skills and probably aren’t willing to go full retard to win the debate.
Huckabee is a wild card. He’s capable of impressing, but doesn’t always bring his A game.
Rand Paul will get attention for just saying his normal opinions, so I expect him to be a “winner” almost regardless of his performance.
I suspect Trump will actually dial it back a notch, and the big news will be that he didn’t say anything terribly stupid.
I pick Huck and Carson as guys who will stand out.
Due to their craziness, you mean? Well, true, but that’s not something *you *should be looking forward to. We, however …
Admit it, you’re dreading this, aren’t you?
You don’t think Kasich will do well? What happened to your this-time-I-really-mean-it support of Kasich for president?
Fox had to ignore the NBC poll even to get the still-has-hopes Kasich on stage ahead of the embarrassing Perry. Even so, he’ll be out at one end of the row, having to holler for attention.
Kasich is just the latest Republican who looks presentable mainly because he hasn’t been looked at *closely *yet. Notice the inverse correlation between familiarity and support?
I’m just predicting who will do best in the debate, not who I’m supporting. Huckabee used the first debate in 2008 to elevate his standing, and he’s the best pure talker of the field. Carson will do well simply because the media expects him to be Trump Jr, but he’s more likely to be fairly boring, but at least authentic. Which will be interpreted as a much better than expected showing for him.
Kasich will do fine, but probably won’t stand out, although given that he has home field advantage the crowd might give him extra props, which might give the perception that he did well.
That would be news…
He just had an interview where all of his answers were actually reasonable and thoughtful. You probably don’t know about it because nothing interesting was said. But he did prove that he can dial it down when he wants to.
That’s assuming he has anything smart to say.
I would say the third tier in general (Rubio, Cruz, Carson, Paul, Huckabee) will gain the most from this. The first and second tier candidates are already well-known enough that they have much more to lose by a poor debate performance than they have to gain from a good one. And Christie and Kasich, well, I just don’t envision them getting much time to talk at all. It’s that third tier who can come across well and benefit from the additional positive media coverage.
In terms of who will do poorly, I think a lot of people will be judging Walker against Bush, and one’s loss will be the other one’s gain. Out of the two, I would guess Bush is more likely to fall, just because he strikes me as more likely to apologize for something or concede ground on a position, and Republicans don’t seem to like that attitude right now.
ETA: Actually, I’m beginning to re-think my comment that one’s loss will be the other’s gain. I could really see one person’s loss going to just about anyone else on the stage.
I hope and pray that Trump will stay his usual self and lob verbal grenades at the others but I expect its going to be a very orderly and boring debate with little to show for it. They simply don’t have enough time to answer a good amount of questions or go into depth, and being in a room with 9 other people makes one self-conscious to the point where you’re uncomfortable. Even Trump should dial a back a notch in this case and I think he will. But I’m really hoping he won’t and he’ll instigate a shouting match 
Don’t forget your character wigs for your watch party.
As to who will flop, my pick to suck is Christie. He’s in a Hail Mary situation now and will be tempted to try to light things up with some zingers against Trump. He might come off as a bully, which won’t play well, particularly in Iowa.
If anything, Christie vs. Trump would make Christie look weak. It’s impossible to bully Trump and Trump, being less restrained, is likely to put anyone who comes at him in their place. Trump is a bully in a way that no mere politician can even hope to match.
If you go after Trump, you do it by being a scold or with light zingers. Taking him on head to head will only make the candidate who does it look smaller in comparison.
Trump may be a bully, but he never shut down a bridge in political retribution. And if Trump makes Christie look small, that would be a remarkable feat indeed.
There are too many participants for anyone to really shine, however, someone could sure fail.
Who shines is 90% a product of the media reaction, and that doesn’t really turn on the number of participants or the quantity of their soundbites.
I think a better predictor is who is likely to either (a) feed a useful media narrative; or (b) dramatically counter an already dominant narrative.
Trump has the potential to counter the narrative that he’s an idiotic bigot. Rand Paul’s heterodox opinions are always, to some extent, counter-narrative. Beating up on Trump is likely to get some media attention. Not sure what else would really matter other than gaffes.
Any of them could be perceived as the winner with just one good line. Since so many eyes are on Trump right now he’s in the best position to deliver that line, but he’s not the a seasoned politician, probably a bit nervous about his first real political debate, so it’s a little iffy for him. Jeb has the next highest poll ranking, but he’s not good at political rhetoric as seen from his recent gaffes. Rand is pretty good at grabbing attention, but his delivery is weak, notice he’s not getting much ink now that the fray has started. The rest will say things that may get noticed, but won’t grow their popularity.
Teh Donald is in the best position, if there’s a clear winner it would be him, but it’s very likely there will be no clear winner.
I’m going to say Ted Cruz. Sort of a guess, sort of a feeling. I think he’s seriously angling to capture all the Trumpmentum when (and if) Trump falls apart.