Question 4 from the Monmouth poll mentioned in my last post, "Are any of the Republican candidates in the presidential race right now doing it more to get
themselves publicity than to make a serious run for the office? "
Results:
Donald Trump 39%
Chris Christie 9%
Jeb Bush 5%
Mike Huckabee 5%
Ben Carson 3%
Lindsey Graham 3%
George Pataki 3%
Rick Perry 3%
Ted Cruz 2%
Carly Fiorina 2%
Rand Paul 2%
Marco Rubio 2%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Bobby Jindal 1%
Scott Walker 1%
John Kasich <1%
Rick Santorum %*
Keeping in mind that this a poll of Republicans, this tells me that The Donald is a lot closer to his ceiling than other candidates.
Trump 17
Bush 14
Walker 8
Cruz 6
Rubio 5
Carson 4
Huckabee 4
Paul 4
Christie 3
Perry 1
Santorum 1
Fiorina 1
Jindal 1
Kasich 1
Graham 0
Pataki 0
No huge changes from the last poll. The five folks that round to 1% are in reality spread from 0.57% (Fiorina, Kasich) to 1.43% (Perry). Kind of unlucky for Perry.
[QUOTE=FOX poll]
“Recently, presidential candidate Donald Trump called for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. He said Mexico is quote, ‘sending people that have lots of problems…. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.’ Setting aside how Trump worded his comments, do you think he’s basically right on this, or not?”
[/QUOTE]
Trump 24
Walker 13
Bush 12
Huckabee 8
Rubio 7
Carson 6
Paul 6
Cruz 4
Perry 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 1
Santorum 1
Fiorina 0
Graham 0
Other-vol 0
None of theses-vol 4
Would not vote-vol 1
No opinion 2
From the article on the poll: “Support for Trump fell sharply on the one night that voters were surveyed following [his comments about McCain]. Telephone interviewing for the poll began Thursday, and most calls were completed before the news about the remarks was widely reported. Although the sample size for the final day was small, the decline was statistically significant. Still, it is difficult to predict what could happen to Trump’s support in the coming days and weeks as the controversy plays out.”
Christie’s support seems to be small, yet consistent (at least from eyeballing the last few polls). I’ll bet that he does make the final poll, along with the now-fairly-consistent top 8 and… (rolls 1d4) Kasich. I guess. Maybe.
If they don’t manufacture a way to keep Trump out of the first debate it is likely to be the total clown brawl all us evil Liberals are hoping for.
Any candidate who gets on that stage with this boob better have a show-stopping zinger up their sleeve to unload on The Donald or they will be toast. That man doesn’t shut up so if anyone goes there they better be prepared to be steamrolled.
Trump will be in the debate or there will be hell to pay. Democracy trumps political correctness. If Trump is in the top 10, he’s in the debate, period.
I don’t know how much Trump’s McCain remarks will hurt him or how long lasting that drop in the polls will stick around, but I’d be really surprised if he dropped enough to knock him off the stage.
What I’m really looking forward to is how the candidates on the outside looking in behave in the next week or so. Will any of them attempt to Hail Mary themselves onto the stage by saying something outrageous that gets them a ton of news coverage while appealing to a large enough segment of Republicans to move the needle the appropriate amount and simultaneously cratering their chances in the national election.
Talk about missing the point of my post. Trump being in the debate(s) is a gift to the Democrats. He will make a fool of himself and anyone who gets on stage with him. So, yeah, please let him stay in the top 10.
A losing candidate’s presence on a debate stage has precisely zero effect on a Presidential election. Besides, he’s as much a foil for Republicans as Democrats. Taking him on can increase the profile of a candidate doing poorly right now. Rick Perry and Lindsay Graham sure think it’s good for them.
MOre importantly, who stands to benefit the most from access to the debate? John Kasich. He needs it more than anyone, because he’s the most viable candidate polling below the top 10 by far. Kasich has the resume and the record to be President. He has a 55% approval rating in Ohio.
Then he needed to start a couple of months ago. He’s nowhere near getting away from the kiddie-table debate, in only a couple of weeks. The key supporters and money and policy positions are already taken, and it isn’t clear there are even any scraps left. His only hope is to position himself, strongly, as the non-hating guy, embracing his Obamacare support instead of distancing himself like Romney. I’ll say he doesn’t have the chops for it, and that he’s running only on the increasingly common “Look at all those jerks - I could beat them” platform.
Ordinarily, I might agree with that point. But what was the big news on announcement day? Trump. Trump is absolutely taking all of the oxygen out of the room. Every time he farts, there will be news coverage. The other candidates are collectively now the un-Trumps. It’s going to continue. The debate is in a few weeks. Whose sound bites will everyone be talking about? Hint- the guy with funny hair.
If there were a groundswell of people begging him to run, aching for him to come be their savior, then there might be a bump as their relief and joy blossoms. But the normal response so far is “Who?”
He doesn’t need people to want him as their savior, he just needs to get to like 3%. Then he gets into the debates, which GOP voters actually watch, and if he does well he sees his support increase.
So how does he get to 3% from zero in just a couple of weeks? And how does he get above that in the four minutes or so he’d even get in the Top Ten Debate, with Trump there to get most of the attention? By being the guy who’s *not *attacking him, and *not *trying to out-hate him on immigration? Good luck with that.