[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
Going by this map, , I see 236 EVs for Obama and 189 EVs for McCain that may not be in play.
[/QUOTE]
That’s a really curious map. Massachusetts as a swing state in an Obama-McCain matchup? What’s going on there? Racism?
[QUOTE=spoke-]
That’s a really curious map. Massachusetts as a swing state in an Obama-McCain matchup? What’s going on there? Racism?
[/QUOTE]
I have no clue. The state that Dukakis and Mondale carried? That site was a lot more useful until today, it seems to be somewhat broken. When it works, you can pick any past election and see the EV breakdown.
[QUOTE=spoke-]
That’s a really curious map. Massachusetts as a swing state in an Obama-McCain matchup? What’s going on there? Racism?
[/QUOTE]
How old is the survey?
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
There’s more than one Hillary Clinton out there. There’s the actual person. There’s the image her supporters have. And there’s the image her opponents have. Heck, there’s probably more than just that - the image that Obama supporters have of Clinton is different than the one McCain supporters have of her.
But the point is that there are people who will vote based more on their views of who the candidates are than their actual identities. And there are certainly people who hate and fear their imagined version of Hillary Clinton and will vote against her because of it.
[/QUOTE]
That analysis was almost Lacanian. We never vote for who the real person, but for the significance they hold for us. 
I don’t think Hillary can win. In terms of demeanor she and McCain are very similar. The election would resemble a brawl. Obama’s unflappable calm as forged by Hillary Clinton will provide a stark counterpoint against the raving maverick. Put them on TV and it’ll be beauty vs the beast. McCain will be running on ‘it’s the economy stupid’, and we’ll be hearing the quote about how he doesn’t know the economy as well as he should over and over. Meanwhile people will continue to say, “Actually Obama understands economics better than it would seem at first.”, and cite the support of any number of respected economists who back him.
I think that Obama vs McCain will be one of experience vs reason. Hillary doesn’t have much more experience than Obama, but she has thus far owned the brand. McCain trounces either of them on experience, but has a tendency to come off as a frothing maniac. Against Hillary being a frothing maniac will look less stark, against Obama it will seem as night and day.
I think Obama will take McCain by about 7%.
[QUOTE=Little Nemo]
It’s like first love. Young people assume that because it’s the first time they’ve felt emotions like this it must mean it’s the first time in history that emotions like this have been felt. No way could something this amazing be just another example of something common place.
But the reality is that there’s nothing new about Obama’s campaign. I’ve seen similar movements over politicians like Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Robert Kennedy, Howard Dean, John Anderson, Mo Udall, Colin Powell, Jesse Ventura, Ross Perot, Jack Ryan, Matt Santos - the idea that this guy is different; that there’s never been anybody like him running for office before and he’s going to fix everything when we put the crown upon his head.
[/QUOTE]
I didn’t say there has never been anyone like Obama before, I said that there has been few campaigns that have been run just like he is running his. I’m not a campaign aficionado by any means, but when I have more than one friend of mine saying Obama is doing something a little different, I tend to listen. I wish I could remember the 80’s campaigns, but I was too busy in college caring about girls and other odds and ends. I guess I don’t remember a canvassing like this before, perhaps I’m mistaken.
But take the crowning affair out of it, I’m not talking about how much people like him, I’m talking about his campaign.
[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
I see Obama beating McCain by a large margin - it won’t be a nailbiter.
[/QUOTE]
I tend to agree, but what if McCain were to choose someone like Huckabee - right-wing and Christian - as his VP candidate? That would energise both the Christians and the Right.
[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
I didn’t say there has never been anyone like Obama before, I said that there has been few campaigns that have been run just like he is running his.
. . .
But take the crowning affair out of it, I’m not talking about how much people like him, I’m talking about his campaign.
[/QUOTE]
His campaign on the ground has been nothing short of utterly brilliant. (emphasis mine)
She’s an unmitigated disaster running a campaign. I’d dread to have to learn how she’d be at running the country. I have no doubt he will trounce McCain as well.
Obama has a better chance, but even with him as the Democratic nominee, it will be a tight race. I expect Ohio and Pennsylvania to be in play, along with the usual assortment of swing states. It’s gonna be a nail biter.
IMO there is a ton more stuff that the McCain people can use to sway idiots from voting for Obama than they can with HRC.
[QUOTE=Quartz]
I tend to agree, but what if McCain were to choose someone like Huckabee - right-wing and Christian - as his VP candidate? That would energise both the Christians and the Right.
[/QUOTE]
Huckabee is a religious conservative but not an economic conservative. McCain may need someone who is both.
And back to the topic, I think Obama has a much better chance. Independents and moderate Republicans actually seem to like him, and those voters were turned off by Clinton long ago.
[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]
IMO there is a ton more stuff that the McCain people can use to sway idiots from voting for Obama than they can with HRC.
[/QUOTE]
Nice.
Care to expound on just what, exactly, we idiots could be swayed by by McCain?
[QUOTE=Shayna]
Nice.
Care to expound on just what, exactly, we idiots could be swayed by by McCain?
[/QUOTE]
The turban incident, the love for Honorable Minister Farrakhan, his Muslim sympathies, his middle name, all the internet UL’s, etc. HRC has none of this to trot out.
[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]
The turban incident, the love for Honorable Minister Farrakhan, his Muslim sympathies, his middle name, all the internet UL’s, etc. HRC has none of this to trot out.
[/QUOTE]
She’s a Communist lesbian who shot Vince Foster. And that’s just a little of the stuff that’s been around for 15 years.
[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]
The turban incident, the love for Honorable Minister Farrakhan, his Muslim sympathies, his middle name, all the internet UL’s, etc. HRC has none of this to trot out.
[/QUOTE]
To those throngs of people making uninformed decisions I’d say this will hurl a few votes away from Obama. But to those who decide to take a gander at his website and learn at least a little about him, will find out that’s all BS. Some will believe it others will condemn it. BUt I don’t think it’s enough to cost him an election, far from it.
[QUOTE=Phlosphr]
To those throngs of people making uninformed decisions I’d say this will hurl a few votes away from Obama. But to those who decide to take a gander at his website and learn at least a little about him, will find out that’s all BS. Some will believe it others will condemn it. BUt I don’t think it’s enough to cost him an election, far from it.
[/QUOTE]
Things much smaller than this have cost people elections- Kerry being merely branded dull and a waffler may have cost him one. Most people who would be bothered by UL’s aren’t likely going to go to his website for the other side of the coin. I’m not sayin it’ll cost him the election, but a nationwide ad featuring a pic of him cozying up with Farrakhan or something like that could hurt.
[QUOTE=Wee Bairn]
Things much smaller than this have cost people elections- Kerry being merely branded dull and a waffler may have cost him one.
[/QUOTE]
Except that Kerry actually was dull and a waffler.
Obama’s gifts as a speaker will help him overcome a lot of Republican mud, in the same way that Reagan’s gifts as a speaker turned him into a teflon candidate.
Interesting. I was reading this article on CNN and at the end it talks about a McCain/Obama match up.
-XT
I think the country is going to see some major changes over the next few weeks with the Democratic side. I see Barack having a very strong hold when a Clinton Concession Speech comes, and dems start jumping to him like crazy. The majority of ones sitting on the fense will jump to Obama and he will have a big surge, then things will even out again nationally right before the convention.
[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
Going by this map, , I see 236 EVs for Obama and 189 EVs for McCain that may not be in play. I can’t imagine MA and its 12 votes going McCain’s way. That makes 248. I think his chances are good in NM and OR for 12 votes, making 260. That would mean McCain would need to run the table in WI, MO, OH, PA, and FL to win.
[/QUOTE]
VA, IA, CO, and NV all leaning DEM?
MA a swing state?
That’s one funny looking map there..
You have to read the fine print 
I think this map and polls like this at the stage of the game we are at now are only a little better than tea reading or dowsing for the eventual winner by putting your wire thingies over a map of the country…
-XT