I have no clue. The state that Dukakis and Mondale carried? That site was a lot more useful until today, it seems to be somewhat broken. When it works, you can pick any past election and see the EV breakdown.
That analysis was almost Lacanian. We never vote for who the real person, but for the significance they hold for us.
I don’t think Hillary can win. In terms of demeanor she and McCain are very similar. The election would resemble a brawl. Obama’s unflappable calm as forged by Hillary Clinton will provide a stark counterpoint against the raving maverick. Put them on TV and it’ll be beauty vs the beast. McCain will be running on ‘it’s the economy stupid’, and we’ll be hearing the quote about how he doesn’t know the economy as well as he should over and over. Meanwhile people will continue to say, “Actually Obama understands economics better than it would seem at first.”, and cite the support of any number of respected economists who back him.
I think that Obama vs McCain will be one of experience vs reason. Hillary doesn’t have much more experience than Obama, but she has thus far owned the brand. McCain trounces either of them on experience, but has a tendency to come off as a frothing maniac. Against Hillary being a frothing maniac will look less stark, against Obama it will seem as night and day.
I didn’t say there has never been anyone like Obama before, I said that there has been few campaigns that have been run just like he is running his. I’m not a campaign aficionado by any means, but when I have more than one friend of mine saying Obama is doing something a little different, I tend to listen. I wish I could remember the 80’s campaigns, but I was too busy in college caring about girls and other odds and ends. I guess I don’t remember a canvassing like this before, perhaps I’m mistaken.
But take the crowning affair out of it, I’m not talking about how much people like him, I’m talking about his campaign.
I tend to agree, but what if McCain were to choose someone like Huckabee - right-wing and Christian - as his VP candidate? That would energise both the Christians and the Right.
His campaign on the ground has been nothing short of utterly brilliant. (emphasis mine)
She’s an unmitigated disaster running a campaign. I’d dread to have to learn how she’d be at running the country. I have no doubt he will trounce McCain as well.
Obama has a better chance, but even with him as the Democratic nominee, it will be a tight race. I expect Ohio and Pennsylvania to be in play, along with the usual assortment of swing states. It’s gonna be a nail biter.
Huckabee is a religious conservative but not an economic conservative. McCain may need someone who is both.
And back to the topic, I think Obama has a much better chance. Independents and moderate Republicans actually seem to like him, and those voters were turned off by Clinton long ago.
The turban incident, the love for Honorable Minister Farrakhan, his Muslim sympathies, his middle name, all the internet UL’s, etc. HRC has none of this to trot out.
To those throngs of people making uninformed decisions I’d say this will hurl a few votes away from Obama. But to those who decide to take a gander at his website and learn at least a little about him, will find out that’s all BS. Some will believe it others will condemn it. BUt I don’t think it’s enough to cost him an election, far from it.
Things much smaller than this have cost people elections- Kerry being merely branded dull and a waffler may have cost him one. Most people who would be bothered by UL’s aren’t likely going to go to his website for the other side of the coin. I’m not sayin it’ll cost him the election, but a nationwide ad featuring a pic of him cozying up with Farrakhan or something like that could hurt.
Except that Kerry actually was dull and a waffler.
Obama’s gifts as a speaker will help him overcome a lot of Republican mud, in the same way that Reagan’s gifts as a speaker turned him into a teflon candidate.
I think the country is going to see some major changes over the next few weeks with the Democratic side. I see Barack having a very strong hold when a Clinton Concession Speech comes, and dems start jumping to him like crazy. The majority of ones sitting on the fense will jump to Obama and he will have a big surge, then things will even out again nationally right before the convention.
I think this map and polls like this at the stage of the game we are at now are only a little better than tea reading or dowsing for the eventual winner by putting your wire thingies over a map of the country…
