In my 12 team league, rushing/receiving td’s count for six points. Yardage, once a rb/wr hits 50 yards, gets 1 point every 25 yard increase (i.e. a player rushing for 76 yards gets 1 point, receiving for 101 gets 2, etc). Fumbles lost = -1 point.
Last year I took Shaun Alexander first overall. My cheat sheet and gut had him and LT about equal but when I realized Alexander was also in a contract year, that made it a no-brainer for me. I won the league (handily, I might add, but was man-handled in my other league) thanks mainly to his efforts as well as grabbing Chad Johnson round 2, Cadillac Williams in the third and Carson Palmer in the fourth.
Most fantasy pundits make the top pick this year a 3-way race between Johnson of the Chiefs, Alexander and Tomlinson (chargers). KC has a couple offensive line questions that concern me, so Johnson is out, leaving Alexander and LT. Tomlinson is breaking in a new QB and has a tougher division to play in (IMHO), BUT Alexander now has his contract, doesn’t have his Pro-Bowl left guard AND is the Madden Cover Boy. Now, I’m not superstitious* but the Madden Curse is close to being a scientific fact at this point.
So I ask you, SDMB Nation - what would YOU do (or what have you done) w the first pick overall? (I can’t trade it, by the way - no dealing draft picks).
(about the league - 12 teams, three divisions, head-to-head, top 4 make playoffs, $30 buy-in).
I would take LJ, but you ruled him out. It looks to me like you want to take Tomlinson… there’s nothing wrong with that. Personally, although I’ve had the fourth or sixth pick in every draft thus far so it doesn’t matter, I’d go LJ, Alexander, LT because I think LJ’s non-trivially above the other two and Alexander’s a good bet to score more than Tomlinson, but you’re just splitting hairs at the top.
Or you could take LJ and trade him after the draft. He’s got the most value.
Assuming that someone trades with you. I’ve done this exact thing and got “stuck” with the target.
I’ve even gone so far as to take running backs with the first 6 or 7 rounds, trying to force some trading, and STILL no luck.
If you know the people in your league, you might do it.
Seattle’s O-line after losing Hutchinson looks a little shakey also. Personally I’d take LJ first overall, his offense is a little more run based. Holmgren gets a little too pass happy in the west coast.
If I had to rank them:
1.)LJ
2.)Tomlinson (he also racks up a ton receiving yardage)
3.) Alexander
I agree with your decision to rule LJ out. His phenomenal season last year reminded me way too much of Willie McGahee in 2004 (not the starter at first, racked up terrific stats mostly in the second half)- who went on to rush for a not-very-1st-pick-worthy 1200 yards and only five TDs in 2005. Not to mention Willie Roaf is gone; not having him for the first half of last season was clearly a problem for the entire Chiefs offense.
With the emphasis your league places on scoring, I don’t see how you can avoid Alexander. Rushing TDs over the last five seasons: 28, 16, 14, 16, 14. He also tacks on at least 2 recieving TDs every season (except last year, ironically).
LT is pretty much a lock to score 15 rushing TDs per season too, but I’d worry about how he’ll play behind a first-time starter much more than I’d worry about how Alexander will play without Hutchinson. He still has the best run-blocking tackle in the league to his left.
Post draft report - I took Alexander first overall, followed by LT, LJ and Manning. Outside of Chad Johnson and Steve Smith, it was all RB until my pick came up again (No. 24 and 25) and since none of the guys I wanted where there at RB, I said screw it and took TO and Moss in rounds 2 and 3, which will either be a great or horrrrrrrrrrible decision about 7 weeks from now. I got Matt Hasselbeck and Chester Taylor rounds 4 and 5 and the rest slips my mind. Another draft coming up Wednesday.
