notquite, meaning no disrespect, I am not underestimating the power of global sports. We’re talking (using the OP as my guide) 500 years from now. Think about that: 500 years!
The only names to survive the half-millenium culling tend to be great artists (composers, writers, etc. included), inventors or businesspeople whose work essentially changed the course of history or the lifestyle of much of the world’s population, statesmen (polititians and military leaders) or “firsts.” Sports figures and other “popular heroes” (thank goodness) generally do not make the cut, usually because tastes change (goodbye Beatles) or records get broken. Do you really think any sports record will survive for 500 years.
Armstrong is a “first” that will endure like Columbus or the Wright Brothers. (Lindburgh, on the other hand is a “first” who will deservedly fade as the current generation dies off. What the hell were we thinking, anyway?)
For better or worse, Gates is still in the running as (possibly) a global Henry Ford (who did not invent the car but who ushered in the automobile age). These two are not just “businessmen who Americans like to remember,” notquite; they are businessmen whose work reshaped the business and lifestyle practices of the entire world population.
Closing thought: I suspect that there is someone alive today who will do something in the field of biotechnology that will make him/her well-known in 500 years.
Pres Bush does have a shot at being famous/infamous. He is the unelected leader of a democratic country, led his country into two wars, misled the media every chance he got, opposed a legislation for making the environment safe…and that not even the end of his term yet!! The list may grow if the wins a second term.
Neil Armstron is quite known in the third world countries, so he is a possible contender as well.
In my part of the world (India), it has to be Amitabh Bachchan (actor). He is still a phenomenon at nearly 60. People are going to forget him easily.
I think there’s a big potential category that everyone is missing… many, if not most, of the people we remember from 500+ years back are artists… painters, composers, etc.
Who’s the equivalent of that in today’s society?
I’m not quite sure, actually… one name that pops to mind is Steven Spielberg, but there’s no real precedent in world history to be able to guess how well films will survive as works of art over the long haul. Along those lines, less US-centric, might be Miyazaki (is that his name? the Spirited Away guy.) Is Kurosawa still alive?
I’m sure that there’s some author or playwright writing today who will achieve some level of lasting fame. But who?
Other people who might count as being “famous” are people after whom things are named. Amerigo Vespucci, for instance. I’m not sure who qualifies for that from the current world population, however.
Music:
The Beatles (Fine, just Paul and Ringo if you need them to be alive).
(honorable mention: Elvis)
Tastes do change, but there are always classicists. We still remember Bach & Handel after nearly 300 yrs. In addition, the advent of recorded media will have a big impact on this too.
Film:
Tough one here. It’s such a new media, relatively speaking, that it’s tough to say who will be seen as the innovators. I suspect it will be the more auteur-like directors, and one or two superstars.
So… maybe Spielberg. Maybe Scorcese or Coppola.
For the actors, it doesn’t have to be the best ones, just the superstars. (Nearly 100 yrs later, more people recognize Chaplin than Keaton.)
Well, since we’re talking about art, and no one’s really covered it, I’ll toss my $.02 in.
The only modern artist I can think of (not being one who follows art) is Pollock. I hate his work, but I still know who he is.
Then there’s Spielburg and George Lucas.
I don’t know if any of those three will be remembered, tho.
And Bush might be remembered for (and I’ll keep my own political beliefs out of this) being elected through such controversy (I’ve heard than an unofficial recount was made and that he actually lost Fl. Not claiming its truth one way or another.)
And in the category of Firsts, I’d go with Neil Armstrong.
All in all, I have no idea who’ll be well-remembered,
It’s not a useful guide to look at who we remember from 500 years prior to determine who will be remembered 500 year in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised if quite a few people alive today will be remembered simply because of the advance in communications, especially over the past 100 years. 500 years ago, there were very high levels of illiteracy, no newspapers, not even much in the way of novels. I can, without too much difficulty, find a copy of the New York Times from a century ago and read that, and I’d say that someone 100 years into the future would be able to do the same. With better communications and better archiving of information, I wouldn’t be surprised if at least some of today’s pop celebrities are remembered.
Kurosawa died in 1998. I agree that cultural contributions are the easiest way to long-lasting fame. However, you need to be careful. Just because someone is very famous now doesn’t mean they’ll be famous in 200 years.
Flashback to 1875 and ask anyone who, of William Bouguereau or Claude Monet will be more famous in the 21st century. The answer you’re likely to get is: Claude who? Some people, like Vermeer and Vivaldi sink into obscurity and shoot back into the spotlight big time.
Of Elvis Presley and John Cage, who will be more famous in 2300? I say Cage, at least, we can be pretty sure that they’ll still be playing Cage’s music.
It’s the “reasonably well known by the world population” clause that keeps tripping me up. I can think of a number of people who will be remembered in their fields:
Hawking
Watson and Crick
Gates
Pele
Muhammed Ali
But when it comes to popular fame, it’s hard to guess what historians will consider important. Here are a few that I consider possible.
Reagan and Gobachov
Pope John Paul II
Billy Graham
Nelson Mandela
Yassir Arafat
