Up front, I acknowledge that my own party has all kinds of problems of its own. There is no need to address that issue in this particular thread, which is addressed to one specific issue the Democrats face at the moment.
Namely, they have a lot of really OLD people running or President.
Hillary, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, even Elizabeth Warren… they’re all mighty old. Martin O’Malley is the only candidate they have who’s younger than me (I’m 54).
Now, if Hillary is the nominee (as I still expect her to be), I believe she’ll probably win. So, this is not a problem of dire proportions. Not immediately, anyway.
Still, it makes me wonder- who’s on the horizon for the Democrats? SUPPOSE Hillary loses, however unlikely that may seem. Who’s the front runner for 2020?
For that matter, look at California. Jerry Brown, Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein… man, that’s a mighty old bunch. Who are the up and coming state leaders in California?
Which younger Democratic politicians make you think, “THAT could be a future star.”
Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Steve Bullock (governor of Montana), the Castro brothers, possibly the governor of RI (don’t know much about her but she’s a young Democrat), maybe some older governors/Senators like Mark Warner and Deval Patrick (just for 2020), O’Malley…
That’s off the top of my head. There are many more possibilities, and others we haven’t yet met or heard of.
As I said about the Castros, gotta win a Texas statewide election first. That’s an obstacle that every successful red state Democrat has had to successfully navigate. But yes, they are bright. I just don’t know how attractive they’ll look to the Democratic base after they’ve made the necessary shifts to the right they’ll need to win in Texas.
Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Tammy Duckworth are the best up and comers at the moment.
Another guy who I wonder why he isn’t still in politics but would rise quickly if he did get back in is Paul Hackett. You guys remember him?
Kamala Harris, the likely next Senator from California. Gavin Newsom, the likely next Governor of California. Congresswoman Lorena Gonzalez from California.
Seth Moulton is definitely an up and coming Congressman from Massachusetts-I’ve seen him speak twice and was thoroughly impressed on both occasions.
Michael Bennet of Colorado may or may not seek higher office, but if he does he should be popular among centrist types and valued for representing a key swing state.
Since “dynasty” seems to be a current thing, I’m waiting for Chelsea Clinton to pop up as a politician of some sort. I’d vote for her in an instant over her mother if I had the choice. What are the odds?
Just as Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan and even Jesse Ventura came from entertainment backgrounds, I think there must be some actors who might venture into politics as well. I can’t name who they might be though, but how about Jon Stewart to start with? It might take longer than 2020 for the next crop though.
Not likely, but why not a chance? There are no skeletons in the closet(that he hasn’t already admitted to with a smile), he’s been a responsible adult since becoming Senator, he’s brilliant, and he’d be the first Jewish VP. Plus progressives love him so it gins up the base.
There are two types of VP candidates – young, hopefully appealing and charismatic up-and-comers to be future leaders (Edwards, Gore [not particularly charismatic, but at least he was young], Quayle) and experienced DC insiders to bolster a candidate’s perceived lack of experience and credibility (Biden, Cheney, Ryan, Palin, GHW Bush). Franken doesn’t come close to either role. There are occasional outliers (Lieberman, Kemp) that don’t fit into either category, but I think those are quite rare.
How about my next congresswoman, Melissa Gilbert? If she wins, perhaps a run at governor, cabinet job, presidency? Little White House on the Prairie?
Sure, the Castros are up and coming. I’m betting that O’Malley gets the veep spot in 2016 and runs in 2020 as Hillary announces she won’t run for re-election.
As I said, not likely, but not impossible. Franken is in the Kemp mold. Someone that would excite progressives the way Kemp was supposed to excite conservatives.
It probably won’t be Franken because if Clinton is the nominee I think she picks someone close to her. But still not impossible.
Tammy Duckworth will likely be the next Senator from Illinois, she’s 47. Perhaps the keynote speaker for 2016 Democratic convention, especially if Iran/ISIS and national security are still big Republican talking points
What is the average number of years between political prominence and being a serious contender for party nomination?
Hillary was arguably prominent as First Lady, but I think it would be fair to start her timeline at her Senate campaign. So she would be 2001-2008. Seven years. Obama is widely regarded as being the Next Big Thing as of his speech to the DNC in 2004. Four years. Or if you want to set the clock back to his time in the Illinois State Senate then maybe six years or so. Dubya was elected Governor of Texas in 1994. So that’s six years at the most. Bill was elected Governor of Arkansas in 1983 and came to prominence in '84-'85, and was elected in 1992. So that’s seven years or so.
Seems to me that Hillary’s two terms–eight years–is more than enough time for people who are not even really on the national radar now to emerge as potentials.
Preet Bharara seems to be taking the same path that put Rudy Giuliani in the governor’s mansion (except that he’s a Democrat). He’ll probably end up as attorney general in the next Democratic presidential administration; he’s not a natural-born citizen, so he won’t be POTUS.
However, to me the future of the party begins and ends with Cory Booker. The Castros seem like nice guys, but they just don’t have it. Kirsten Gillibrand is too centrist, and Steve Bullock is from the middle of fucking nowhere.
Bill Clinton was first elected Governor in 1978, I believe. Same Nunn once quipped that Bill Clinton was the only person to be called a rising young star over three decades.
Clinton didn’t attend his first Bilderberg meeting until 1991, so the Secret Rulers of the World presumably didn’t decide to make him POTUS until after the 80s.
