From the list: Leonardo DiCaprio except he’s seems to be suffering from Lucci Syndrome.
Ed Norton. Needs to combine his great acting with a movie that is Oscar fodder.
Off the list: Paul Giamatti. Probably for a supporting role.
Neeson did Third Person and Downey did The Judge. So they’re both trying to keep a hand in “serious” movies.
Possibly, but I think Michael Keaton is an early favorite. Too?
Oh, I think Downey and Neeson are both talented enough to give Oscar-worthy performances again. But Neeson is an odd case who did serious movies while young and is now doing shoot-em-up as an older man!
Downey is a great Iron Man, but I’d love to see him do some more serious work again, and demonstrate all his genuine talent.
From the list, the only ones I see on an Oscar trajectory are:
[ul]
[li]Joaquin Phoenix - Oscar loves him and he continues to get the roles.[/li][li]Mark Wahlberg - He’s still building his career, making good choices, and has a nomination. With the right director and role…[/li][/ul]
Many of the rest are past their expiration date - Harrison Ford.
Others will continue to show up in the nominations but there will always be someone fresh and new who will knock them out.
Some just aren’t getting the roles - Edward Norton.
For some, it seems that familiarity breeds contempt, as they say. Yeah, they continue to put out stellar work, but we stop being impressed because we’ve seen them so often - they’ve lost “freshness” - DiCaprio.
Mark Wahlberg should get one for Transformers.
Essentially, which of these actors are so beloved/revered, that the Academy will go to any length to give them an award (Pacino/Scent of a Woman; Winslet/The Reader)
5 nominations
Glenn Close - at this point, supporting (if ever). Good roles for older actresses are (sadly) few and far between
Albert Finney - Very unlikely. Even Honorary is doubtful.
4 nominations
Annette Bening - Mrs. Beatty is well-loved in the industry. It all depends on the role, but possibly.
Leonardo DiCaprio - His films have won 28 Oscars and 7 Best Picture nods. Definitely.
Ed Harris - Probably supporting (3 in that category so far), but timing is everything
Julianne Moore - This year is looking very very good. But sooner or later, definitely.
3 nominations
Tom Cruise - He needs more prestige pictures. His last nod was 15 years ago, pre-“crazy”
Johnny Depp - He needs his street creed back. Too much of a whore, but still revered. Probably
Laura Linney - Not likely, unless she lands the perfect role. Fantastic actress, but not a starlet.
Michelle Pfeiffer - Probably not.
Joaquin Phoenix - Maybe too eccentric in his choices to nail a win, but very worthy if he keeps this career track
Brad Pitt - Redford never won an acting Oscar either. Smart, pretty, Mr. Jolie will settle for the one he has now
Sigourney Weaver - Unlikely, unless a plum supporting role comes up
2 nominations
Robert Downey Jr - Retooling himself into a superstar will probably have to suffice
Ralph Fiennes - He’s been in 3 Best Picture winners, but he’ll need a really meaty role
Edward Norton - Seen as too prickly and difficult, but he may pull it off this year nonetheless
Will Smith - Much like Cruise, he’ll need to take a risk like he did with his first 2 nods
John Travolta - Nope
1 nomination
Harrison Ford - Maybe an Honorary award
Samuel L. Jackson - If ever, supporting. But will have to be against-type.
Bill Murray - Too often subtle and understated. Nope.
Liam Neeson - Really unlikely at this point
Gary Oldman - Amazing character actors very often go empty-handed. He’ll probably be another.
Mark Wahlberg - Nope
0 nominations
Bruce Willis - Let’s get nominated first
Here’s my early bird predictions. The nominees will be Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, Jack O’Connell, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. And Keaton will win it.
Really hard to imagine that lineup without Steve Carrell (although most of the films cited haven’t been released in the US yet, so seeing their broader reception might clarify things a bit).
I’ve heard Carrell’s name mentioned but I think he’s still got the handicap of being seen as a comedy actor even when he’s doing a dramatic role.
DiCaprio’s overdue.
To get a sense of who’s the most “due” here are the years when the following actors were first nominated for an Oscar.
Albert Finney - 1963
John Travolta - 1977
Glenn Close - 1982
Harrison Ford - 1985
Sigourney Weaver - 1986
Michelle Pfeiffer - 1988
Annette Bening - 1990
Tom Cruise - 1990
Leonardo DiCaprio - 1993
Robert Downey Jr - 1993
Ralph Fiennes - 1993
Liam Neeson - 1993
Samuel L. Jackson - 1994
Ed Harris - 1995
Brad Pitt - 1995
Edward Norton - 1996
Julianne Moore - 1997
Joaquin Phoenix - 2000
Laura Linney - 2001
Will Smith - 2001
Johnny Depp - 2003
Bill Murray - 2003
Mark Wahlberg - 2006
Gary Oldman - 2012
[quote=“Little_Nemo, post:50, topic:704653”]
I’ve heard Carrell’s name mentioned but I think he’s still got the handicap of being seen as a comedy actor even when he’s doing a dramatic role.
[/QUOTE]The people who nominate will have seen Foxcatcher and will reward Carrell with a nomination. The actors because it’s (from what I’ve heard) a great performance AND because they understand about being stereotyped and the thrill of breaking out of that, everyone else because it’s (from what I’ve heard) a great performance worthy of a nomination. He also has a LOT of friends who will root and campaign for him. O’Connell is going to have to wait his turn. I agree with your other choices as likely nominees, though so far I’ve only seen Birdman and The Theory of Everything.
Not in the Oscar mix, and unlikely to be nominated even if he were, is Gael Garcia Bernal for Rosewater. I’d love to see him get some recognition from somebody this awards season.
Remove Cumberbatch and add Fiennes for Grand Budapest Hotel.
No, I feel that Cumberbatch and Keaton are the two solid locks on getting nominations. If Fiennes gets a nomination (which he might) I think he’ll replace one of the other actors I listed.
I would add Redmayne to the lock list.
After that, we have:
Ben Affleck
Steve Carell
Bradley Cooper
Ralph Fiennes
Jake Gyllenhaal
Matthew McConaughey
Bill Murray
Jack O’Connell
David Oyelowo
Timothy Spall
Miles Teller
For quite a number of these names, it will depend on how much traction their film gets overall–if a film really connects with the Academy (and quite a few of these are Best Picture contenders), a coattail effect can occur where the cast in particular benefits.
You also can’t ignore Oscar Isaac, Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Gael Garcia Bernal, Brendan Gleeson, or - if you want a long shot - Ellar Coltrane. Or a posthumous nomination for Philip Seymour Hoffman.
It really is an embarrassment of riches, though the field will likely narrow once the critics awards start coming out (next month).
Irene Dunne was nominated five times.
Deborah Kerr was nominated six times, and never won.
Living actors with most nominations and no wins:
6: Close+
5: Amy Adams, Finney
4: Jane Alexander, Warren Beatty*, Bening, DiCaprio, Harris, Marsha Mason, Moore
3: Joan Allen, Cruise, Depp, Kirk Douglas*, Diane Ladd, Angela Lansbury, Piper Laurie, Linney, Nick Nolte, Pfeiffer, Phoenix, Pitt*, Weaver, Michelle Williams, Debra Winger
(*) indicates has an Oscar in another category or capacity
(+) I miscounted earlier