While this may seem like an IMHO post, I’m more looking for info on the demographics of the buyer’s of video games. I’m curious to know what “Little Johnny” is gonna want for Christmas and if he matters at all. Nintendo has those standard titles, but dont people get sick of the same old theme? Or will people prefer to stick with what they know. People who currently own consoles might not be familiar with Microsoft the way pc’ers are. OTOH, many pc’ers may get an Xbox. I guess this really is a request for opinions but with facts to them up.
Being a big anti-microsoft person, I have been reading a bit about all of this. I have taken informal poles in the form of asking people in EB and Babages.
Here is what I have come up with very simplisticly put. And I am sure many people will dissagree.
Nintendo: They rule the kiddies. But have pissed off many potential older buys with the kiddie graphics of the new Zelda.
PS2: The made many people mad with the lack of machines earlier this year. And somoe overhyped games. But there is a slew of big games comming right around the Christmas season (MG2, Devil may Cry, Ico). PS2 will do fine.
X-Box: Microsoft hates will avoid like the plague. Their gamepad design has also turned off quite a few people, as did their poor showing at E3. I have yet to talk to any hardcore gamers that want to be in the same building as an Xbox. The few positive comments have come from Mothers who know little to nothing about it, and people who think it will be good because it has the “better” hardware.
I will guess that PS2 won’t sell as many SYSTEMS, since they have been out for a year, but they have some HUGE titles comming. Nintendo will sell well since it’s new, and has both kiddie and old school loaylty. Xbox has the money to push themselves along…Bill Gates could make it out sell the others put together all by himself. But from what I gather, it will do mediocre until/unless it gets some better titles.
I’d have to take a look at the latest list of release titles for Xbox and Gamecube, but last I looked (which was, admittedly a few months ago), there wasn’t anything to take your pants off for, so to speak.
My guess is, the holiday batch of PS2 games will sell well and should sell a bunch of systems as well. So, depending on how you determine a victor, the PS2 should win in terms of number of units of software, though they obviously won’t sell as many units.
ATM, I’m calling the hardware sales a dead heat between Xbox and Gamecube (obviously), though MS did set aside half a billion dollars for marketing, so you never know…
I’ve played just about every title on the Xbox that’s available at the moment - Shrek is pretty standard stuff, gameplay-wise, but the graphic detail is pretty good. The football game, however, is awesome - great detail, instant replay, 360 degree rotation as well as zooming in and out for every player, the ball, etc. Ex: you can instant replay the QB and zoom in on his face and watch him look off the other receivers, etc. The others I would categorize as closer to Shrek - great detail, but similar to just about every other game out there.
So, until there are better games, I didn’t see anything that would make Xbox an instant hit, nor even a bigger hit than the PS2. And I think we’re developing our games in-house for now, which I think is a pretty big mistake. MS games on the PC have been well below average, except Flight Simulator.
After weighing all the odds, I’ve come to these conclusions:
The PS2 will sell the most software by far this Christmas. The reason is obvious(most consoles sold, more games available).
The Gamecube SHOULD sell the most console units. It’s Christmas, and you KNOW that most younger kids will want a Gamecube(they already have the GBA, right?).
Microsoft has a huge uphill battle, and I don’t think Christmas will bode too well for them as far as console sales go. They’ll sell a lot of units, just not as many as the PS2 or GC.
Of course, I could be wrong. Never underestimate ‘Hype’(what MS has going for them).
I dont think you could call Age of Empires average!
I remember back in the dark ages, I was looking for my first arcade game machine. My Gran took me to Montgomery Wards where I saw a system made by Bally called the Bally Videocade. This console had awesome graphics (compared to the Atari 2600). Sure enough I got it for Christmas with 5 cartridges.
When I looked next Christmas for games to ask for, Wards stopped carrying the game system. No other mainline merchant carried games for the Bally either. I had to go to specialty stores to find games (and most of those were not the hit games I saw in the arcade).
In time my Bally collected dust and I got an Atari 2600 and an impressive cartridge collection. While not the best console on the market, they had the games I wanted: the games I played in the arcade.
A game console is nothing without games. It is all going to depend on what games the big three (Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft) can get. Frankly Sony has a big head start because you can play most of the PS1 games on the PS2 (a downward compatible stunt they obviously learned from Microsoft).
I would advise anyone looking for a game console to not make the same mistake I made in choosing the Bally Videocade. Look at game titles to see if they are the games you want to play, THEN buy a console.
This link:
http://www.actsofgord.com/page46.html
is from the owner of a video game store who lists 10 reasons why the XBox will not knock off the PS2. He makes fairly good arguments, and the rest of his site is funny as hell.
He argues, as does RainbowDragon, that it is the games more than the console that determines success. The Dreamcast was in some ways a better console than the PS2, but the PS2 had more games that people wanted. Developers have a good relationship with Sony, and the games are already there (and cost less than those for the XBox will, as the XBox has a higher licensing fee).
I am still a huge Nintendo fan. Not a single system has let me down, ever ever ever. I expect the GameCube to have more adult titles (as the fans they hooked in the last ten years with kiddie games are growing up, see?) and to be serious competition for the PS2. I think Sony is going to have an uphill battle the whole way, unlike the PS which seemed to have a peak unlike any other console out there.
I agree: it is all in the games. Seeing as these are all really advanced systems, programming time will be a huge factor in getting lots of games out. Thus, Sony has the edge there. Their second generation and third generation games are out long before the competition.
However, from what I understand the GameCube is a very, very impressive system dedicated solely to the things involved in videogaming (no DVD player options, for example). It sounds to be a very streamlined system capable of some incredible things. This Christmas? Ehh, questionable. Next Christmas after Rare gets cracking? Forget about it. (plus I keep hearing rumors about square no longer being a sony exclusive) Now that nintendo is off the cartridge format, expect some developers to head back to them like EA and Square. If their system is as great as a PS2 (which I think its probably better) AND they start switching to more adult games (with the same level of kiddie games) then Nintendo will punch its way to the top.
Next Christmas! Unless they can pump out some new pokemon titles, I think the GBA is going to be the big N’s target for consumers this christmas.
I have nothing much to say about X-Box. I think the PS2 will most likely win the console wars this x-mas because of the head start they have this year. Parents aren’t infinitely wealthy, and neither are most gamers, so I don’t expect next-gen players to have all thee systems instantaneously.
I will buy both Nintendo and X-Box more than likely.
However, I understand Sony is poised to cut the price of the PS2 when the X-Box (and/or Gamecube) is released. IF they do that, I think they will fly off the shelves just as much as last year. They will almost certainly win the war this Xmas.
OOOhhh, boy, I strongly disagree with that. Bill Gates as we speak is signing up the big name games designers on exclusivity rights. That’s exclusivity rights. PS2 and Nintendo are gonna look pretty dull when the high quality games appear only on X-Box. Gates can also afford to drop his prices so low that unless his competitors basically give away their product for free, they will get run off the market. (Think Internet Explorer).
Gates didn’t get to be the richest man in the world being a dud businessman.
Sega has already collapsed under the pressure since Sony’s arrival on the console market. What did this teach us? That there is only room for 2 major console producers on the market. Say hello Microsoft, and say goodbye to either Sony or Nintendo. My prediction is that in 5 years time, one of the latter will be no more.
Do you have any facts to support that Microsoft has exclusive contracts with any game developer? Do you have any facts that Microsoft is in serious negotiation with a game designer for exclusive rights? If so, which ones?
Frankly when these console wars start, it would not be good business sense for an independent game developer to sign a contract that only has them writing for one console. Better to cross the range of all three if possible (and profitable) and sell your game to the largest market possible.
My apologizes to Royal Sampler. I took it to mean that the developers were exclusively xbox.
According to xbox’s website, there are contracts where certain games will be exclusively on the xbox format.
The most puzzling of the lot seems to be Capcom, which had hits with Dino Crisis and Dino Crisis 2 on the Playstation format. In a May 16th press release on xbox.com, they state that Dino Crisis 3 will be exclusively on xbox.
[slight hijack] If you have a real interest in how the videogame market will play out, I suggest finding this book. It chronicles the entire history of videogames, and it is interesting to see that some of the mistakes made in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s are being repeated now. [/slight hijack]