Sam is a Canadian Conservative and is merely a fan of the Republicans.
Interestingly, Ted Cruz is also a Canadian Conservative and is merely a fan of the Republicans.
Including Sanders, right?
The Republican race is a strange one. Here are what I see as feasible outcomes, listed in descending probability:
-
Trump wins outright. The continued division of the non-Trump vote allows him to rack up first place finishes, and he cleans up >50% of the delegates before the field clears out.
-
Cruz and Kasich drop relatively soon. The anti-Trump vote coalesces behind Rubio, who wins more votes than Trump, but no one gets to a majority. Contested convention.
2a) Rubio wins in contested convention.
2b) Someone else wins contested convention.
2c) Trump wins contested convention.
- Same as scenario two, but Rubio manages to get a majority of delegates ahead of the convention.
I’d put #1 at probably around 45%, and 2c at maybe 5%, giving Trump about a 50% chance of winning the nomination.
I’d put #2a at maybe 20% and #3 at maybe 20%, giving Rubio about a 40% chance.
That leaves 10% for 2b, which could really be anyone else at this point.
I think my numbers all add up.
ETA: I voted Clinton for the general. Assuming her nomination, I think she’s got to be somewhere around 65% to win the general at this point, and that’s only as low as it is because there’s still eight and a half months for an economic or foreign policy disaster.
Your numbers for Trump and Rubio almost precisely match the Betfair odds (at least, what they were when 538 recorded their most recent podcast last weekend). Those odds also include Kasich and Cruz at between 2-3% each. But today on NPR, Larry Sabato said the “only chance” for Trump to be stopped would be for everyone to unite behind Cruz. I found it curious that he didn’t even mention the possibility of uniting behind Rubio. But I think maybe that’s because Cruz’s voters have Trump as their second choice?
I would say likely, but Sanders will be easier to attack with new material. That and his recent conversion from Socialist will work against him. I could see him needing a heavier lift in PA, MD and WI.
Conversion?
I think it’s going to be Hillary. Make no mistake, I despise her even more than rap music, broccoli, or Notre Dame football. I’m not the “weep for my country” type, but I may well get drunker than shit on election night. I will not vote for her. But I think she’ll win.
I don’t often emit a shrill laugh while surfing The Dope, but this made it happen.
I linked this MSNBC article before. It’s a little dated now, referring to a poll around New Year’s but it shows Cruz as a strong second choice guy. Yes, a lot more Rubio guys would hop to Cruz than the other way around.
What in the world is wrong with you? Broccoli is the best! Steamed with just a little butter and salt sprinkled on afterward…or even without the butter. Heaven!
Yep, it’s going to be Hillary, even though I prefer Bernie.
Seriously, broccoli is amazing.
Broccoli is great. Not just the way you described, but raw broccoli is awesome as well. Only the florets though, not the stems. No matter what Larry David may say.
Yeah, I think it’s fair to wiggle the numbers around a bit to carve out 2-3% for Cruz. I think Kasich can only get the nomination through a contested convention “consensus candidate” type. He might get about 2-3% of the 10% for that scenario.
I haven’t crunched the numbers, but in general, Rubio is more of a “second choice” candidate than Trump. I also don’t think the party can unite behind Cruz - he’s just too disliked and too divisive. Seems that the best option for the anti-Trump faction is to unite behind Rubio, and somehow have Carson stay in and keep siphoning off some of that anti-establishment vote. Here’s the NBC polling data on second choices.
Yep, raw broccoli mixed in a salad is mouth-watering… and yeah, just the florets.
I pick up the giant stalks of it that come rubber banded together in the grocery store and just gnaw chunks off of it and put it back in the fridge. Does nobody else do that?