Who's really ahead in the polls, Bush or Kerry?

[Cervaise]

@Left Hand of Dorkness

who knows what the minor candidates might do that might affect the election.

Nader: “I’m going on tour with Green Day!”

[BrainGlutton]

Post-debate update from http://www.electoral-vote.com/, 10/0/04:

The first poll on the second debate shows the results much closer than debate #1. According to a Gallup poll of 515 registered voters, Kerry won by 47% to 45%. When asked if they felt more favorable about the candidates after the debate, 38% were more favorable to Kerry and 20% were less favorable. For Bush the figures were 31% and 20%. For a challenger, these are good numbers. Historically, when an incumbent is running for reelection, the undecideds typically don’t like the incumbent but are not sure if the new guy on the block is up to the job. His task is to convince them he can do it. In the past, the undecideds have ultimately broken 2 to 1 for the challenger.

Although there are several state polls, many are older than the current poll so they are added to the allpolls.csv list but do not change the spreadsheet or the map. The only change to the map today is in Colorado, which goes from a tie to Bush, 52% to 44%, according to Survey USA. Kerry remains above the magic 270 votes in the electoral college for the moment.

Here is the current batch of national polls. Obviously it is an extremely close race once again.

Pollster____________________Dates_____Kerry_____Bush_____Nader

Democracy Corps____________Oct. 3-5____49_______48_______1
The Economist______________Oct. 4-5_____47_______46______1
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner_____Oct. 3-5____49_______49_______1
Gallup_____________________Oct. 1-3____47_______49_______1
IPSOS_____________________Oct. 4-5____50_______46
Marist College_______________Oct. 4-5____46_______47_______1
Time______________________Oct. 6-7____45_______45________3
Zogby_____________________Oct. 5-7____45_______46________2

With a bit of luck, we may get a Supreme Court double header. The Oct. 5-7 Survey USA poll on the Colorado amendment to allocate its votes in the electoral college in proportion to the popular vote is leading by 45% to 44%. The first fight in the Supreme Court could be over whether the amendment actually passed and if it did pass, the second fight could be over whether it is valid.

[Brutus]

Keeping in mind the standard warning about polls, todays Rasmussen poll:

Today 49.6(Bush) 45.9(Kerry)

[BrainGlutton]

Update, 10/12/04:

http://www.race2004.net/ now counts 196 EVs for Bush, 222 for Kerry, 120 Undecided.

If the election were held today we project:

Bush wins the presidency with 274 electoral votes. Kerry places second with 264 electoral votes.

Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,371,755 votes (49.61%). Bush places second with 54,187,633 votes (48.55%).

If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 268 for Kerry, 270 for Bush.

Current polling provides conflicting predictions on whether the amendment will pass.

If Bush wins the electoral vote and Kerry wins the popular vote . . . well, Bush will be president, of course, but maybe it will spark a new movement to abolish the EC.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ now counts 260 EVs for Kerry, 274 for Bush, with New Hampshire (4 EVs) the only state “Exactly Tied.”

[XT]

You should stick to one voting site to maintain a trend BG…just my opinion. I notice on the first site Kerry has NM (its ‘weak Kerry’) while on the one you normally use Bush has NM (‘weak Bush’).

Still too close to call. Maybe things will fall out tomorrow after the debate, but I think its going to come down to the wire…no one will REALLY have any idea until after the final votes are counted. Its going to be another VERY close election just like the last one…unfortunately.

-XT

[BrainGlutton]

@xtisme

Its going to be another VERY close election just like the last one…unfortunately.

Why “unfortunately”? This is the kind of thing that makes politics exciting! Just think of all the citizens who shrugged off the whole thing in 2000 and are getting really involved and engaged now!

[XT]

Because I don’t think the country needs another controversial election at this time…one that comes down to the wire and may be decided by a few votes like in Florida last time. I was hoping for something a bit clearer myself, though I guess the country is pretty well divided between Kerry and Bush.

I AM happy that maybe this time more than 50% of the people will actually get off their butts and go out and vote though…thats a good thing IMO.

-XT

[ShibbOleth]

In the objective of fair and balanced, www.electoral-vote.com now has the election slightly in favor of Bush, 274-260. Ohio’s change in the Rasmussen polls (see Brutus’s cite above) is the difference at this point.

[InvidiousCourgette]

I have been following the race using a different yardstick: www.betfair.com. They have been offering a market on the election: $2 million plus so far been matched on it. They had Bush and Kerry at evens just before the Republican convention. Bush moved to 2 to 1 on prior to the first debate. Kerry has recovered since then and currently stands at about 6 to 4. In other words, the people who are willing to back their judgements with money are giving Bush a 60% chance of winning. In yet more words, it is still very close.

[ShibbOleth]

@InvidiousCourgette

I have been following the race using a different yardstick: www.betfair.com. They have been offering a market on the election: $2 million plus so far been matched on it. They had Bush and Kerry at evens just before the Republican convention. Bush moved to 2 to 1 on prior to the first debate. Kerry has recovered since then and currently stands at about 6 to 4. In other words, the people who are willing to back their judgements with money are giving Bush a 60% chance of winning. In yet more words, it is still very close.

I looked at that site, but I’m not enough of a gambler to fully understand what a lot of it meant. (Republicans, Democrats, Back, Lay, three columns with dollar amounts for each… does not compute!)

What happens if the vote goes the way of the last and the Supreme Court decides the winner? Is that a “push”?

[Jonathan_Chance]

@InvidiousCourgette

I have been following the race using a different yardstick: www.betfair.com. They have been offering a market on the election: $2 million plus so far been matched on it. They had Bush and Kerry at evens just before the Republican convention. Bush moved to 2 to 1 on prior to the first debate. Kerry has recovered since then and currently stands at about 6 to 4. In other words, the people who are willing to back their judgements with money are giving Bush a 60% chance of winning. In yet more words, it is still very close.

Wouldn’t ‘Kerry 6-4’ imply that he’s now the anticipated winner? Maybe I’m not understanding the nomenclature but generally one gets less than one’s bet back when one is betting the safe way. Bigger returns come from betting against the conventional wisdom.

[InvidiousCourgette]

@ShibbOleth

I looked at that site, but I’m not enough of a gambler to fully understand what a lot of it meant. (Republicans, Democrats, Back, Lay, three columns with dollar amounts for each… does not compute!)

What happens if the vote goes the way of the last and the Supreme Court decides the winner? Is that a “push”?

Those are not dollar amounts, they are decimal odds. Look at the two middle columns for, say, the Republicans and take the average (currently 1.65 and 1.67, hence 1.66). You can then click on odds converter to see what odds that equates to in conventional bookies’ terminology. Alternatively, take the reciprical and that gives you the % chance of presidency, for example Bush gets 1/1.66 x 100 = 60.24%.

I think there will be a short cooling off period after results are announced. If there is any chance of a Supreme Court overrule, I imagine Betfair will defer settling the market.

[InvidiousCourgette]

@Jonathan Chance

Wouldn’t ‘Kerry 6-4’ imply that he’s now the anticipated winner? Maybe I’m not understanding the nomenclature but generally one gets less than one’s bet back when one is betting the safe way. Bigger returns come from betting against the conventional wisdom.

No. 6 to 4 means if you bet 4 you will get 6 back plus your stake. A real outsider might be 100 to 1. Back that and if it comes in you will get 100 back plus your 1 stake.

[RickG]

Another interesting “gambling” site is the Iowa Electronic Market which currently has Bush ahead in both the winner take all and the vote share markets, but not by much.

Rick

[BrainGlutton]

Where’s Jimmy the Greek when we need him?

[InvidiousCourgette]

@BrainGlutton

Where’s Jimmy the Greek when we need him?

I will concede that it does not sound very scientific to look at a gambling site to get an impression of the state of play in a presidential election. Nonetheless, if the market has sufficient liquidity I believe it can be a reliable indicator. There will be many “gamblers” out there with a good knowledge of statistics who will be keeping a close eye on the latest opinion polls and any other relevant data. If there is any gap between what the polls are saying and the state of the market, the market will move very quickly to correct itself. There are quite a few serious gamblers who trade on betting exchanges in the same way that investors trade on the stock market.

[Cervaise]

@BrainGlutton

Where’s Jimmy the Greek when we need him?

I dunno. What were Bush’s ancestors bred for?

[fessie]

Since we’re hijacking anyway, posters here might be very interested in this week’s Frontline program - a 2-hour in-depth profile and comparison of Bush and Kerry. Couple of my relatives happened to catch it last night & said it was fascinating and full of information they hadn’t seen elsewhere.

[BrainGlutton]

Update from http://www.electoral-vote.com/, 10/15/04: Count is now given as 228 EVs for Kerry, 284 for Bush – but it’s a lot closer than those numbers make it sound.

Survey USA ran polls in 14 states and 21 cities to see who won the third debate. Kerry won in NY, NJ, ME, CA, OR,WA, IL, AR, PA, and CO. Bush won in TX, KY, and OK. Florida, as usual, was a tie. Among cities, Kerry won in 8 and Bush won in 12. When we look at cities in swing states, the mix is Kerry won St. Louis, Detroit, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cleveland. Bush won Phoenix, Cincinnati, Des Moines, and Grand Rapids. When broken down by party, in all 35 areas, the Democrats thought Kerry won and the Republicans thought Bush won.

Not much change due to the state polls today, although it looks like Arkansas is getting a bit closer. Excepting Florida, I doubt Kerry will win any states in the South though. Florida and the Midwest is where the big action is.

All in all, the race is much closer than it now appears. If you add up the strong and weak numbers in the legend, you get Kerry at 198 and Bush at 222. If you then award Kerry New Jersey, which nobody except Strategic Vision thinks is even close, the score is Kerry 213, Bush 222. The rest are tossups. Many people have asked me to toss out Strategic Vision, but to stay impartial, I don’t want to cherry pick among the pollsters.

Below are some new national polls from Ohio University

Pollster________Dates____Kerry___Bush
Ohio University__Oct. 3-13__50_____44
Ohio University__Oct. 3-13__50_____45
Ohio University__Oct. 3-13__47_____48

Look strange? To understand the numbers better you have to understand the polling process. The first poll came from calling households at random and asking if the respondent was 18 or over and a resident of the United States. This filter resulted in telephone interviews with 1022 people. Among this group Kerry has a lead substantially outside the poll’s 3% margin of error. After asking about who the respondent planned to vote for, the interviewer asked: “Are you registered to vote at your current residence?” It turns out 15% were not. Once they were removed from the data, we get line 2, the registered voters, where Kerry is still ahead outside the margin of error. Next question was: “Are you certain or almost certain to vote?” Counting only the people who said yes, we get line 3 in the table, what are often called “likely voters.” In short, in the adult resident population at large, Kerry is way ahead, but among likely voters it is a statistical tie. For this reason, each party will mount a massive Get-Out-The-Vote drive on election day to turn out their base. In an election as close as this one, the winner will probably be determined by which party does a better job. If you want your horse to win, be sure to vote and strongly urge all your friends, relatives, fellow students, coworkers, etc. to do so, too. Call them on the afternoon of election day to prod them if need be. Since supporting constitutional amendments seems to be “in” these days, I could support one saying that people who don’t vote should be stripped of their right to complain about the government afterwards. I believe that Australia has a fine for not voting. This election is too important to sit out.

Another court has knocked Ralph Nader off the Pennsylvania ballot, but he is appealing the decision. I suspect the issue of whether Nader can be on the ballot will still be in litigation until well into 2005. Not knowing his status in so many states doesn’t make my job any easier

The Washington Post has an interview with Charlie Cook, a political guru in the same league as the late Izzy Stone. Insiders pay a lot of attention to Charlie Cook. He warns that the polls are missing the cellphone-only voters, a topic that has been discussed on this site repeatedly. He also says the election may be determined by events in Iraq. If it gets much worse, Bush is in deep trouble. Cook also confirms what I have heard from many, many sources: the undecideds ultimately break at least 2:1 for the challenger. An incumbent president has to be polling 49% to 50% going into the election. A 47% to 47% tie in the polls means the challenger wins. The interview is worth reading.

http://www.race2004.net/ gives the count at 223 for Bush, 222 for Kerry, 93 Undecided:

If the election were held today we project:

Bush wins the presidency with 281 electoral votes. Kerry places second with 257 electoral votes.

Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,299,026 votes (49.55%). Bush places second with 54,259,008 votes (48.62%).

If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 261 for Kerry, 277 for Bush.

Current polling provides conflicting predictions on whether the amendment will pass.

In addition, poll data suggests that the loser in Maine (currently Bush) may be able to pick off one electoral vote.

[Spoke]

@BrainGlutton

Update from http://www.electoral-vote.com/, 10/15/04: Count is now given as 228 EVs for Kerry, 284 for Bush – but it’s a lot closer than those numbers make it sound.

Also noteworthy is that a number of the state polls on that website were conducted by Strategic Vision, a Republican polling group which has become notorious for skewing its samples. More on Strategic Vision as relates to polling in Georgia here. From that article:

But Strategic Vision’s methodology was and remains questionable, according to political experts.

The poll results were calculated on the assumption that just 18 percent of statewide votes would be cast by African-Americans. Yet African-American turnout for the last three statewide general elections was 23 percent, according to Bullock and the Georgia secretary of state’s office. Historically, most African-Americans vote Democrat.

This calls into question the value of Strategic Vision’s polls (reflected on electoral-vote.com) in such critical states as Wisconsin, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.