We were responding to a (factually false) claim that it’s Biden’s fault if he loses because he said he’d only serve one term.
People think he said he’d serve one term. He at least implied he’d serve one term. If he said it and then tried to walk it back, doesn’t matter.
He didn’t say it or imply it – the media just blathered, falsely, about it.
And he explicitly said that he wouldn’t rule out a second term on multiple occasions.
There are multiple factors that went into deciding to pose the debate challenge to Trump. One thing that must’ve been enticing was the prospect of delivering kind of a one-two-punch before the conventions.
After the March 7th State of the Union address, Joe Biden received a nice bump in the major polls. It lasted about six weeks – RealClear Polling’s average had Trump and Biden 0.2 (zero-point-two) percentage points apart on April 18th. That probably suggests to the campaign that getting Biden extended time in front of a camera has been, and will continue being, a good thing.
Then, soon after the “hush money” trial started, Trump’s RCP average bounced back up about a single percentage point and has held firm since (currently exactly one point up on Biden).
It could pass that Trump is found guilty the first week of June. That’s probably presumed to shave something off of Trump’s numbers. Then, a few weeks later at the June 27th debate, Biden gets a chance to perform (so to speak) and demonstrate again that he’s not too old & feeble. And maybe get another poll bump.
If Biden were ahead in the polls, there’s no way he’d risk screwing up a campaign with a debate this early. There’s always the risk he could lose the debate - hard as that is to believe when you consider he’s debating a dementia-addled moron like Trump. The fact that he’s putting himself at risk here in June shows the campaign is worried about the polls.
I don’t often agree with you but with this I do. Everyone would have been OMG! if a president said they’d only be a one-term president. LBJ is still famous for not running for re-election and that was after the first primary when he knew he would probably not even get the nomination.
I’m pretty sure he’s considered the odds.
Biden has gotten big boosts in his public image after his various SotU addresses, coming across as strong in the face of the petulant toddlers of the Congressional GOP. Debating Trump would be another opportunity to play to that strength in an high-profile arena and in direct context to the addled gibberish his opponent will almost certainly spew.
It won’t change the minds of those who support Trump no matter what and who would declare him the winner even if he just shat in his hands and threw it at the audience. But Biden presenting himself as a clear, strong speaker will do wonders to counter the image of a doddering fool the right has been so busily spreading.
I think it’s more than likely that Biden will win a debate with Trump. But it’s not a certainty, and I am pretty sure they were thinking about the polls when they propposed a June debate. I’m not against him debating Trump, BTW. I wish he had more than one debate after Labor Day.
I’m not sure what “winning” or “losing” a debate would look like. It’s not like we keep score. People will judge Biden (and Trump) against their expectations going in. And everyone will have their own opinion. (probably very few minds will be changed, but it will give Biden more ammo to point out how terrible Trump is. But we hardly need any more of that)
Primaries back then did not determine the nominee because only thirteen states had them.
While you never can know what someone is thinking, and pessimism over being able to win in November could have been the cause, Johnson’s stated reasons for dropping out were plausible. See:
You made my day; I hope the post helps you make the arguments you are making to Facebook friends as well as anyone else you converse with. As you say, Wisconsin is important!
This entire thread is very interesting from the point of view of argumentation. As we’ve seen, the ‘Biden is an Awful Person’ theming one participant has been pushing hasn’t landed well, here, despite few trying to sell any counter about Biden being a Super Duper person (or equivalent). For me the ‘use your vote to get as close as you can to what you want’ line of thinking will always prevail. Adoring the candidate is NEVER a requirement.
We shall see…
Poll movement in the days right after the debate determines who won the debate. In 2020, right after both debates, the polls moved toward Biden.
I haven’t read all 633 posts, but I am going to mention something that the first 100 didn’t. I blame the primary system. I grew up when presidential candidates were chosen in smoke-filled (and alcohol-drenched) rooms on the basis of who is likeliest to win. ISTM that there is 0 chance that Trump would have been selected in 2016. On the other hand, it does seem likely that Biden could have been chosen in 2020. Still the primary system too often throws up the most extreme candidates. Candidate quality anyone?
Are you seriously asking this?
If a left leaning person who would normally vote for the Democratic candidate stays home, they are effectively supporting Trump.
If a right leaning person who would normally vote for Trump stays home, they are effectively voting for Biden.
Biden would be to blame – for his crappy policies and actions, for not fulfilling a lot of the promises he made during his previous campaign, and for his poor presentation lately. He can’t help that last one, I suppose, but he does not appear competent to run a country. (Not that Trump does.)
Which “crappy policies and actions”, in particular? Successful vaccine rollout, brought post-pandemic inflation down quickly, passed a major infrastructure bill so good the Republicans who opposed it are now taking credit for it, got Mexico to pay for border security, strengthened NATO, cut the deficit, fuelling a domestic manufacturing boom, advancing green energy innovation… any of those?
I mean, his handling of the Israel situation has been dubious and there have been a few other areas where he could have done a lot better but most of his policies and actions have been positive for the country overall.
Overall, he’s been a terrific, accomplished president. His first-term resume would normally induce joy in Democrats and independents. As a collective, the American people have the critical thinking skills of a toddler. And every four years we ask them to make a crucial, complex decision.
So, I stick to my first post in this thread re: who’s to blame.
Clearly Biden’s to blame because he’s not a dynamic and exciting young man who has a string of successful game shows and other zany fun things to engage the voters and make them actually realize that Trump is full of BS and and a destructive, toxic force (note: Trump’s toxicity is extremely difficult to detect and almost nobody realizes that he completely mismanaged a pandemic and could possibly be instrumental in the significant degradation of NATO).
Also, Biden completely failed to use his Gandolph/Christ hybrid powers to subdue the gang of hucksters and scam artists comprising the deliberately obstructionist GOP; this is a significant point against him and he is totally responsible for this.
His failure to swoop into Gaza and Israel and single-handedly talk sense into everybody and right all of the historical wrongs is also a real black mark against him.
And if no one can guess - /s
Another of my many thread title answers: Any American who gives swing and uncertain voters the idea that the Democratic Party lacks patriotism.
I mention this not because I believe in blaming, but because there is an easy concrete step that anyone planning on putting out a Biden-Harris lawn sign can take this coming Monday. Fly the flag on Memorial Day – and then on Juneteenth and Independence Day. I want to also say you should fly the flag on a day much closer to the election – Columbus Day – but I suppose this a big ask for some progressives.