Why are the Trump defectors having such little impact on the polls and Trump's chances?

I will participate in any thread you start on the subject.

ETA: Feel free to provide a link to it here, so all of us gratuitous thread hijackers know where to go.

I’d be happy to, but it might have to wait till later tonight when I’m done with work.

Again, anecdotes are not data. Society has to also make moves to provide that healthy family structure.

The empirical research that I and others have conducted on this question demonstrates that family caps have had no effect on out-of-wedlock births, and that women on welfare may actually have a lower birthrate than women in the general population. In one analysis, the annual birthrate for every 1,000 women aged 18 to 44 on welfare was 45.8, compared with an overall national rate of 71.1. Women on welfare consistently say they want to get off these programs and that having another child is seen as making this more difficult.

To be fair, safety net programs are not the answer to poverty, because they are there to deal with the effects of poverty. As I have seen elsewhere, it is with better education, that included both parents or the singe ones, an item that makes a big difference. Also, when women do get more education, the result is usually less kids, and early on.

In essence, being worried that giving economical support to poor single parents has not much of a reason. There is not much of an effect on the number of kids. But education does, and once again: having an stable home environment, even for a single parent, thanks to financial aid is an important factor.

I think there’s a pretty large perception among the center and right that the Democratic party, and its left wing in particular are determined to tell people what they ought to believe, in a rather sanctimonious kind of way.

I mean, a person may not be racist/homophobic/hostile to the poor, but if some person comes from somewhere else and tells me how I ought to be thinking/what I ought to believe, then I’m liable to not be very receptive to that message.

For example I wasn’t homophobic (by the standards of the time) in college, but I took a fair amount of offense at my school’s resident advisor training. It went way past"this is how you have to behave as an employee of the university in this position", all the way to “this is how you should think as an employee in this position working for the university” when they talked about gay people, etc… It wasn’t so much that they were telling me I needed to be tolerant, etc… as part of my job, it was that they were pushing an ideological agenda and in effect, telling me I was wrong if I wasn’t on board with them in an ideological way, even if I toed the line absolutely in the execution of my job.

Lots of modern-day Democrats/leftists do that- if you’re not on board with BLM, Metoo, etc… fully and completely, then you’re morally wrong, and should be ashamed, in their view. That’s definitely vinegar, and a lot of the flies don’t like that, even though the actual fly food is perfectly palatable when they get down to it.

Meanwhile, the GOP is not pushing a moral component- they’re pushing fear, and set themselves up as a remedy for that fear.

So for a lot of people it’s not a contest- they don’t like being told they’re wrong, and are afraid of the things the GOP says they should be afraid of. So they vote GOP.

I think that’s pretty accurate. Well said.

As noted elsewhere, the latest shows that Trump told themn to not be afraid of the Covid-19 virus, Turns out that he knew how afraid they needed to be but then he continues to give them bad advice about cures, testing and the use of masks.

Not expecting that that would impact the polls much, but enough to lower them just a bit more for Trump. He shows that he is not a good judge about what we should worry about.

Of course they’re pushing a moral component - always have, rather explicitly. It’s actually pretty hard to oppose somebody’s moral component without pushing in the opposite direction.

That said, aside from the general moral position that “liberals/gays/mexicans/foreigners/blacks are evil monsters to be violently opposed in all things”, the GOP has largely set aside its old moral positions (anti-abortion, pro-religion, small government) in favor of fearmongering, because the things they really want (more money for them, dictatorial power) aren’t really an easy sell.

You’re being hyperbolic and unfair towards a lot of Republicans. It seems like you deliberately misunderstand and exaggerate opposing views so you can argue in extremes and exceptions.

Trump is the embodiment of those extremes and exceptions.

Seeing many not listening to the Republicans that are not for Trump now, but will continue to be Republicans after Trump is gone, tells others that many Republicans have decided to embrace the caricature that many Democrats and liberals liked to describe the Republican leadership in the past.

Was just discussing this very topic with my folks (lifelong 'Pubs), and my Libbie neighbor.

Oh, I mean the OP’s original topic…

Well, I’ll stop in again tomorrow to see if anyone’s addressing the actual topic. Big thanks to everyone here who’s tried to.

Republicans repudiating Trump is a non-issue for trump. So are the polls at this point. Trump already knows how to win the election, he learned it back in 2016. And he knows from reality tv how to sway polls or ratings.
The fbi announcement about Hillary’s emails right before the election are what trump knows works.
I predict a similar announcement wrt Biden (aided by the Russians) right before the election, and a Trump victory. Any polling data at this point is worthless.

Moderating

Accusations of lying are not allowed in this forum. This is an official warning.

For everyone:

Let’s get this thread back on track to the original question, if possible. If your have a hijack you really want to pursue, please start a new thread.

Meh, like if he has no beef with the ones who are dead too. Sad thing to see Trump still getting into fights with McCain… And still the dead non-Trumper comes out better.

None of that matters. Only the couple days leading up to the election matters, and trump knows this. He learned it in 2016 and ratings data from keeping controversial contestants on the apprentice to boost ratings.

Again, that is not what I replied to, you were wrong. It is an issue for Trump, where he loses in very stupid ways.

I’m not intelligent enough to figure out what you’re arguing…fortunately or unfortunately, there’s no intelligence test for voter eligibility.

Again, you told us that “Republicans repudiating Trump is a non-issue for trump.” As usual, with a lot of things claimed about Trump, the reality is that he is doing the opposite of what is claimed. He does see even dead Republicans that repudiated him as a big, big issue.

One reason why Arizona is becoming Blue.

It’s a bit different, this time.

When the FBI under Obama criticizes Hillary, then even the most staunch democrats have to assume that there is some there there, and that it’s not just a political ploy.

With as politicized as the FBI is now, such an accusation towards Biden would not have nearly the same effect. It may even backfire.

Republican votes are probably already baked in one way of another.

All of whom are likely on the lookout for the Biden/Harris equivalent of buttery mails from Ben Ghazi. The question is how many won’t care.

Right, but if their republican vote is already baked in, then so what if they find yet another lie to toss on the stack of lies upon which they base their entire worldview? They were already going to vote republican. It’s not like they can vote twice. (Aside glance at the president.)