Less bad is best when good is gone.
Well, personally I think the best option for the North Koreans would be reunification with the South. It would be a tough transition for them, but I think this is the least bad choice for them…certainly in the long term.
It’s all moot, though. China isn’t going to annex North Korea and they aren’t going to reunite with the South either, at least not any time soon…and when they do either of those it will be after some really bad times (unlike today, where a percentage are starving or on the verge of starving, plus all of that totalitarian stuff they are putting up with).
I think the best idea would be for NK to trade untapped mineral deposits to China and SK for equipment to extract it. Trade for food, knowledge and a stable neighbor.
This could turn NK into a power house. But it may give a way to rid the world of the Kims.
Nork is bulwark against unbridled capitalistic freedoms flooding into China ― to stave what happened in its [Korea’s] south.
China’s asbestos-dusted, melamine-daubed economic tentacles are sidled into all orifices of Western, Mammon whorshipping society; thus, they can manipulate whoever they like through this Sino-**$**timulatory economic glove puppetry. As utterly redundant as it is to point out, but the U.S. being one of the biggest and dumbest wittols of the chinois, makes any overtures to curtailing Kimmy-J’s isotopic (et al.) ambitions as impotent as a septuagenarian’s ‘micro’ Johnson when on its third wife―whose half its age―and without the abet of a single, pulverised tiger penis powder, tumescence tablet! The proof of the U.N.'s curdled pudding is in its up-chucking.
Nork is a literal ‘middle finger’ to the Occident, extended from the chinois red, right hand. The Middle Kingdom have the world by its scrawny, bon viviant scrota, and all they have to do is squeeze, if and when they want something kowtowed to by its cravenly, cretinous, corrupted chattels.
“GREED IS GOOD.”
―U.S. emperor eternal, Gordon Gekko
iLemming, you might want to avoid drugs and thesauruses when you think you want to post, here.
isotopic…
I’ve had a few writers that I needed to ban from use of a dictionary, but what the heck is an isotopic ambition supposed to be? All your [sup]35[/sup]Cl are belong to us?
Oh, and you may want to check your faux Latin, your numbers don’t match. Then again, you also don’t know the difference between a possessive and an abbreviation.
I think the ambitious isotope would have to be U235.
It’s like regular ambition, but its level of neutrality has either increased or decreased, often to the point of instability.
“isotopic ambition” = “desire for nuclear weapons” in the poster’s best pseudo-intellectual cant. He’s done read hisself some of them there pointy-headed perfessor’s stuff and thinks its be soundin’ right persuasive.
For them maybe, but it would destroy South Korea.
I think unification could be done in a gradual way that doesn’t harm the South a lot.
First, South Korea would move a lot of military forces into the North to stabilize the country, and also guard against Chinese encroachment.
Then South Korea would give enough aid for North Koreans to have enough to eat, medicines, etc. This wouldn’t cost more than, say, $10 billion a year, which is a hefty but affordable price for South Korea, which has a trillion-dollar economy. The international community might be happy to chip in with humanitarian donations, too.
Only a small number of North Koreans would be allowed to come to the Southern half of the new unified Korea at any given time, so you don’t have a massive flood of refugees.
South Korea would only gradually rebuild North Korea, highway by highway, school by school, over the course of half a century. At any given moment, South Korea wouldn’t spend more than $10-30 billion a year on rebuilding the North. So it’s entirely affordable.
Trying to rebuild North Korea to South Korean standards in two decades would be impossible and bankrupt all of Korea. But doing it over 50-70 years, sure.
I disagree that it would be gradual (or no more gradually than East and West Germany), but I don’t think it would be particularly destructive to South Korea. As soon as the word spread that people could get across the border, there would be millions of people fleeing south. There would be temporary housing and maybe even food shortages (that other western countries would help with), and longer term there would be a variety of education issues related to living in a new environment.
The would be essentially nobody left in the North except the military and the highest level of government.
It’d be like rehabilitating East Germany only, y’know, a thousand times harder. Possibly it could only happen if the supporting state either collapsed or lost interest, i.e. East Germany opened up when the Soviets fell away; opening up North Korea might require China deciding it no longer cared.
I don’t see that anytime soon, though - something genuinely dramatic would first have to happen in either China or North Korea, with global implications.
The war itself or reunification? The war…maybe. Reunification? I doubt it. I also doubt that South Korea (or Korea as it would be) would have to do it all itself. If nothing else, the US would help out…and I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t be the only one. Hell, even China might help, depending on how it plays out…they would want to get in good with the new regime for future trade relations, and this would be a perfect way for China to extend its soft power, as it seems to be focused on trying to do lately.
If you were willing to operate North Korea as a relatively benign prison camp for the next 50-70 years you could certainly do exactly as you say. You just have to convince everyone there that their lives are already forfeit but their (grand-)kids will live well after they’re gone. They will be fed adequate rations in the camps until they die of old age instead of from NK guard cruelty as they do now. Good luck selling that voluntarily.
if you’re not willing to leave most of the current North Korean populace as prisoners in penury for the rest of their lives you rapidly get what Boyo Jim and Byran Elkers suggest. Uncontrolled *en masse *migration and the de facto depopulation of the former NK territory.
In finance speak, North Korea is now “Too Big to Fail.” Which has always been a misnomer when they really mean “It’s Not Too Big to Have a Failure; It’s Too Big To Avoid Having To Completely Rescue It After That Failure.”
I’ve argued something similar in the past. That the best thing is to tell China privately that we’d welcome them conquering NK, and we’ll be glad to help with no expectation of reward besides the relief of being rid of the Kims. All they have to do is stop at their side of the DMZ, just like we have.
I’ve begun to think that the window of opportunity for that particular play has already closed. Here’s why.
The problem with that idea is that even as China’s military grows more capable of decently managing an occupation that size, the Chinese economy grows ever more like South Korea’s and ever less like NK’s.
IOW … When Chinese GDP per head was 110% of NK’s the idea of unification wouldn’t be too jolting. Today when Chinese GDP per head is 11x that of NK’s (see List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia ) and the difference is growing bigger every day, the Chinese have ever less use for another 25 million starving uneducated peasants. Just as SK does now.
Again NK has become “too big to fail” (as extended in my post just above) even for the Chinese to swallow without choking.
That doesn’t mean that if the Kim dynasty implodes nobody will be able to do anything to influence the aftermath. What it means is that everybody outside NK would love to postpone the implosion to a later date. Because hastening it is just too messy / costly to deliberately choose to trigger it.
Said another way…
Imagine we (US, China, UN, etc. = The Good Guys = GGs) had a magic wand that could eliminate the Kims, and their top loyalists, and spike 100% of the weapons aimed at Seoul with a single wave of that wand.
Imagine we wave it Monday night at midnight.
The fact 25 million innocent NKs went to bed without supper on Monday is Kims’ fault. The fact they’ll still go to bed hungry on Tue is the GG’s fault.
“You broke it you bought it.” applies to NK about like it did/does to Iraq.
Not a bill I’m eager to sign up to pay.
I am of the opinion that the Korean peninsula is rightfully South Korea’s, and that China taking over North Korea would be tantamount to taking away territory that is South Korea rightful future’s territory - AIUI many South Korean nationalists are of the same view. While China invading North Korea may give everyone a short-term sigh of relief, in the long run - decades and centuries - I think it would be better for South Korea to have been the one to annex the entire Korean peninsula.
BTW LSLGuy, did you do a tour of duty in Korea? I understand that many Viper pilots get stationed in South Korea at some point in their careers.
Who?
Just kidding.
Well, the best case is a (relatively) bloodless internal collapse if the Chinese let it happen (or encourage it to happen) without trying to intervene militarily. A massive countrywide food drop could at least encourage the North Koreans to not flee North or South, hopefully long enough for an invasion of Green Beret types, not to conquer the place but to hastily build or rebuild infrastructure alongside the locals.
If it takes a bribe in the sense of letting the Kim family flee to Switzerland with a few billion dollars, so be it - it’s still hugely cheaper than any kind of military solution.
Yes, except shipping megatons of surplus wheat and corn and soybeans to North Korea would be a dream come true for Senators from agricultural states. The bare feeding of 25 million starving North Korean might take a month or two to set up, but we can easily afford to provide them with plenty of (humanitarian aid|agricultural subsidies).
Why is that an “except” ? It sounds reasonable to me. I wouldn’t expect U.S. Senators to play along unless some of them saw an advantage to it. For that matter, it doesn’t have to be only (or even primarily) the U.S. doing so - other nations, including my own, have potential interests in a peacefully-transitioned North Korea.