Why haven't we heard from Bin Laden?

[XT]

Was reading this on CNN today and figured I’d see what 'dopers think of it. Basically the question is why haven’t we heard from Bin Laden about the US election and our new President. As a side discussion…could AQ have been any more insulting to Obama? I’m guessing this was for internal consumption by their faithful, but I’m thinking this will have a VERY negative reaction by many American’s, especially black American’s.

(CNN) – If the audio message purportedly from al Qaeda’s deputy leader is authentic, we have finally heard from a representative of the terror organization about the American election.

It was wholly expected that there would be such a tape, though the content, with its references to Malcolm X might be considered somewhat surprising --although in recent tapes al Qaeda’s leaders have occasionally referenced critics of American society and foreign policy such as Noam Chomsky and Malcolm X.

On the tape, the deputy leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, seeks to make President-elect Barack Obama seem like an apostate for his support of Israel and the war in Afghanistan: “You were born to a Muslim father, but you chose to stand in the ranks of the enemies of the Muslims, and pray the prayer of the Jews, although you claim to be Christian, in order to climb the rungs of leadership in America.”

Four years ago, the al Qaeda leader appeared in a well-lit videotape addressing himself directly to the American people five days before they voted in the contest between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush.

Bin Laden said then that whoever won the election was immaterial as far as al Qaeda was concerned and that instead, Americans needed to change their country’s foreign policies in the Muslim world, or face the consequences.

U.S. intelligence officials tracking al Qaeda had been expecting a similar message from the al Qaeda leader in the run-up to this presidential election. Yet, bin Laden did not appear.

There could be several reasons for this. First, the bin Laden tape might still be in the pipeline and will surface in coming weeks after having wended its long way via a chain of couriers from his hide-out on the Afghan-Pakistan border to be uploaded to a jihadist Web site or delivered to an Arab TV station.

Second, bin Laden may have concluded that, given the widespread expectation that he would deliver an election-eve tape, discretion is the better part of valor and for security purposes, now is not the time to make an appearance on the world stage.

Third, militant targets in the tribal regions have been the subject of more than 20 American missile attacks this year – 11 in October alone, according to a count by CNN’s Pakistan bureau – and that may have spooked the al Qaeda leadership, which has not been the subject of such intense missile strikes previously.

Those attacks are designed not only to disrupt al Qaeda’s operations, but also to increase the radio or phone communications between militants – signals intelligence known as ‘SIGINT’ – that can be traced by American spy agencies, according to U.S. intelligence and administration officials who track al Qaeda.

Thoughts?

-XT

[BrainGlutton]

:o You know how it is . . . You move on, you get preoccupied with new things in your life, you simply forget to stay in touch with the people you once cared about.

[Captain_Lance_Murdoch]

When was the last time we had proof of life from OBL?

[Captain_Amazing]

@xtisme

discussion…could AQ have been any more insulting to Obama? I’m guessing this was for internal consumption by their faithful, but I’m thinking this will have a VERY negative reaction by many American’s, especially black American’s.

Is Al Qaeda really going for American popularity? I don’t think, “But this might offend Americans” really plays a large part in their decision making process.

[gonzomax]

Osama bin Laden - a dead nemesis perpetuated by the US government He is dead. But there is no proof,

[John_Mace]

I’m ready for the SNL spoof of this message:

bin Laden: Good job, agent Obama. Now that you how tricked the American people into electing one of our own, we are promoting you to Jihadist Grade Level 10. Good luck, and may Allah bless you. Also, I want to see Michelle wearing the veil when she next appears on TV.

XT: You don’t capitalize the “b” in “bin”, FYI.

[Marley23]

@gonzomax

Osama bin Laden - a dead nemesis perpetuated by the US government He is dead. But there is no proof,

For crying out loud, gonzomax, did you actually read that page? It says he died in December 2001! He has made several public video and audio tapes since then. He may have died since - there have been a few intelligence reports about that - but he definitely did not die in December 2001.

[XT]

@John Mace

XT: You don’t capitalize the “b” in “bin”, FYI.

Yup…knew that but thanks. Was just a typo in the subject line.

@Captain Amazing

Is Al Qaeda really going for American popularity? I don’t think, “But this might offend Americans” really plays a large part in their decision making process.

Probably not, but they seemed to be trying to play up to Obama just before the election. That could have been their way of trying to sabotage the election though so who knows? I just thought that the comments were particularly offensive, and not in the general ‘America is the font of all that is EVIL!’ sort of way they normally go about it.

@gonzomax

He is dead. But there is no proof,

Leaving aside your link (which Marley23 addressed already), I’d say that this is a distinct possibility (though fairly recent). He could be in deeper hiding than usual though too, since we’ve been hitting targets in Pakistan pretty hard lately…and there seems to have been some expectation that ObL would be coming out to make a statement about the new President like he did in the last election. AQ and ObL may be thinking we are getting a bit close to the target these days to risk it.

Or we may have gotten lucky with one of those missile attacks. If he doesn’t come out fairly soon with something that can be dated to after the election I think some conclusions will be able to be drawn as to his possible current health situation.

-XT

[ShibbOleth]

Dear Osama,

   I hope this letter finds you well.  I have heard your name in the news quite a bit lately and this has caused me to revisit our times spent together.  Our long walks along the shore, staring wistfully into each others eyes.   The time we shared an ice cream cone in Kabul.   Our weekend at your cabin in the mountains.

   I understand that people change and I know that you said I should move on with my life.  It's just that I can't get you out of my head.  Dammit, you meant so much to me.  I thought that we had something special.  Maybe I was just one of many whose emotions you toyed with.  I hope that's not it, and sometimes I cry myself to sleep at night afraid that I wasn't even special to you.   Just try and tell me that night in Riyadh didn't touch you somehow!

 Maybe I just need some kind of closure.  I don't wait by the phone hoping that you'll call anymore.  I'm past that.  I just want to hear that it's over from you.  Then I can get on with the rest of my life.  Don't be selfish.  Try to think about how I feel.  Send a note, make a call, send me a video.  It doesn't matter what.  Just make some sort of a gesture.  Be the man that I know that you are.

Yours,

America

[Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor]

Why haven’t we heard from Bin Laden?

Well, that hole he’s in is really deep, & his voice just don’t carry like it used to.

[Moirai]

@Marley23

For crying out loud, gonzomax, did you actually read that page? It says he died in December 2001! He has made several public video and audio tapes since then. He may have died since - there have been a few intelligence reports about that - but he definitely did not die in December 2001.

I believe he is dead. He probably died in an overnight bombing on a cliff full of caves that US operatives had been watching for weeks (it was in December, actually, but I can’t remember the year). No bodies were recovered after the massive landslides triggered by the bombing. This was right about that time that our gov’t started talking about how “this isn’t just about one man…”

No video tapes have been seen since. Our own gov’t is in charge of declaring that “the voice on the audio tapes is ObL.” Uh huh- sure it is, guys.

Gotta have a boogey-man to scare the people and keep them in line. :rolleyes:

[XT]

And all the other governments in the world are so in lock step with the US that they all just go along without any words to the contrary? :dubious:

I think if the US were trying to maintain the illusion of ObL being alive for our own purposes that someone out there would have spilled the beans…if there were beans to spill. This isn’t to say that ObL isn’t dead NOW of course…just that I have my doubts that he’s been dead since 2001 and the US government has been running a scam on this since then in order to perpetuate their own power and keep the WoT going. I seriously doubt whether ObL has been whacked or not is going to matter in the larger scheme of things, or if the knowledge of his death is going to suddenly have the US do an about face and declare victory, bringing the troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan.

YMMV of course.

-XT

[Marley23]

@EJsGirl

I believe he is dead. He probably died in an overnight bombing on a cliff full of caves that US operatives had been watching for weeks (it was in December, actually, but I can’t remember the year). No bodies were recovered after the massive landslides triggered by the bombing. This was right about that time that our gov’t started talking about how “this isn’t just about one man…”

That could be December 2004, 2005, 2006 or 2007, but it sure as shit wasn’t 2001, since he put out his last video statement in late October or November 2004.

Gotta have a boogey-man to scare the people and keep them in line. :rolleyes:

If the goal was keeping people in line, it’s failed miserably for the last few years - and not only that, but nobody’s even made a serious effort, so this theory doesn’t make a lot of sense.

[Junior_Spaceman]

Did that 2004 video have anything to confirm its date? I remember some videos coming out, and political commentators saying that it could have been from any time (boiling down to “Yep, I still hate America”). Did he mention candidates by name or up to date issues?

Also, re the conspiracy rumours - what could the US govt possibly have to gain by keeping ObL’s death secret, while making such a big deal of Saddam’s capture?

[XT]

Yeah, he talked about the election so he was alive at least until that point. After that…it’s debatable but I think there is some evidence in his speeches that he was still alive at least until (IIRC) last year some time just based on some of the things he dropped into his speeches.

-XT

[seodoa]

@ShibbOleth

Dear Osama,

   I hope this letter finds you well.  I have heard your name in the news quite a bit lately and this has caused me to revisit our times spent together.  Our long walks along the shore, staring wistfully into each others eyes.   The time we shared an ice cream cone in Kabul.   Our weekend at your cabin in the mountains.

   I understand that people change and I know that you said I should move on with my life.  It's just that I can't get you out of my head.  Dammit, you meant so much to me.  I thought that we had something special.  Maybe I was just one of many whose emotions you toyed with.  I hope that's not it, and sometimes I cry myself to sleep at night afraid that I wasn't even special to you.   Just try and tell me that night in Riyadh didn't touch you somehow!

 Maybe I just need some kind of closure.  I don't wait by the phone hoping that you'll call anymore.  I'm past that.  I just want to hear that it's over from you.  Then I can get on with the rest of my life.  Don't be selfish.  Try to think about how I feel.  Send a note, make a call, send me a video.  It doesn't matter what.  Just make some sort of a gesture.  Be the man that I know that you are.

Yours,

America

I think it should be a crime that nobody remarked how damn funny this is. Thanks ShibbOleth, this made my day.