Why is New Mexico more liberal, overall, than Arizona?

Factual Questions
1

Or, why is Arizona a red state and New Mexico a blue state?

Every time I see one of the FiveThirtyEight maps, I’m reminded that New Mexico is solidly Blue/for Clinton/liberal, compared to Arizona, which has been solidly Red/for the Republican candidate/conservative since I can remember.

(This is sort of news now because Arizona is potentially turning blue for this election, and the Arizona Republic endorsed a Democrat for president for the first time ever.)

What makes New Mexico so much more liberal than Arizona? Has this always been the case, or is this a relatively recent trend?

My perspective is someone who’s an outsider to the region, but I have spent time in Phoenix —my grandparents moved there from Wisconsin in the '70s.

2

Arizona: 60% non-Hispanic white, 29% Hispanic, 4% Native American. Median household income: $46,709.

New Mexico: 40% non-Hispanic white, 47% Hispanic (highest percentage of any state), 9% Native American (second highest of any state). Median household income: $41,963.

Given that Hispanics and Native Americans are proportionately more Democratic that whites, as are lower income people, demography and income explains a lot of the difference.

3

There’s a lot of your answer right there. There’s lots of older, richer, white people there.

4

For what it’s worth, I did my undergrad in Santa Fe, NM and spent ten years (2005-2015) in the Phoenix area.

Both New Mexico and Arizona are sparsely populated except for a few urban centers. In New Mexico, you’ve got Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe, primarily. Albuquerque and Santa Fe both lean left; I can’t say what the political climate is like in Las Cruces. Total state population is about two million.

NM is, in my opinion, a swing state. In a sense, it only looks liberal compared to Arizona because Arizona is deeply, deeply conservative. Another factor is that there are substantial Native American and Hispanic populations in NM. Per Wikipedia, the portion of the population that identifies as “non-hispanic white” is about 41%. (The equivalent stat for Arizona is 58%—a clear majority).

Between people of Native American and Hispanic descent, non-whites are the majority in New Mexico. I’m not sure exactly what this means for political leanings, but there just isn’t an overwhelmingly large voting bloc of conservative whites in New Mexico.
Arizona also has 2-3 major urban areas: Flagstaff (very small, liberal); Tucson (a small city, mixed-to-liberal) and Phoenix (deeply conservative New West [del] hellhole[/del][sup]1[/sup] megalopolis).

Phoenix drives the state’s politics. There’s a fair amount of old money in Scottsdale and a fair amount of new money there and in Paradise Valley. (Both of these are suburbs of Phoenix). There are a couple of demographic trends driving the Phoenix area’s conservatism:

  1. Conservatives from Orange County, CA and other conservative parts of California see Phoenix as a reasonably-priced alternative to their current homes. Lots of people in Phoenix emigrated from California. So many, in fact, that AZ natives sometimes display “NotCal” stickers on their cars. (This is a play on NorCal, which is something I guess Northern Californians put on their cars). Land and houses are dirt cheap in Arizona compared to, say, southern California.

  2. There are a whole lot of Mormons in Arizona (5-6% of the population statewide). It’s an oft-repeated truism that the greatest concentration of Mormons outside of Utah is in Mesa, AZ, a Phoenix suburb. There really are a lot of Mormons in Mesa, so their political power is concentrated. Mormons (or LDS, as they often prefer) tend to be pretty conservative, politically speaking, but as with any group, there’s a wide range of opinions.

  3. Most people in Arizona moved there from somewhere else. Arizona has long had a reputation as a libertarian and/or conservative place, so it tends to attract people who find those things attractive.

  4. Arizona has a libertarian history and a “low” tax burden. Barry Goldwater was from Arizona, for example. Fiscal conservatives tend to be really tax-averse, and so tend to move to places with low tax burdens. I put “low” in quotes because I didn’t find taxes to be especially low. Property taxes were very low (and the schools reflected this, IMHO) but sales tax is effectively 9.5% in the Phoenix area and 8.5% elsewhere. Also, while local government is weak and hands-off, homeowners’ associations (HOAs) tend to be pretty strong and demand annual fees.

It seemed to me that although Arizona is perceived as a low-tax, small-government paradise, taxes aren’t all that low and HOAs collect revenue and act (in some ways) like an unelected strong local government.

So I don’t get it, and that’s why I don’t live there anymore.

I have a former colleague who worked with me at an engineering firm in Tempe, AZ and, a few years ago, moved to Albuquerque. He’s a regular on the boards here, though I have no idea if he comments or what his username might be. But I’m sure he would have some thoughtful input on the subject as well. (And, dude, even if it’s a a strain, PM me!)

  1. This is not meant to be political commentary. I hated living in Phoenix, but plenty of reasonable people like it there.
5

Arizona is not the reddest state in the U.S., nor is New Mexico the bluest state in the U.S. Here’s the states (and D.C.) ranked for percentage of popular votes for President in 2012. I’m going to use that as a quick way to rank the redness and blueness of states. I used the proportion of Democratic votes for the rankings. Yes, there are other ways to rank them. If you have statistics (and not anecdotes) showing a different way to rank them, show it to us:

There are 21 states which are redder than Arizona. There are 16 states (and D.C.) which are bluer than New Mexico. Arizona and New Mexico are only separated by 12 states in the ordering of the 50 states (and D.C.). Arizona is red but not by a huge amount. New Mexico is blue but not by a huge amount.

6

I lived in PHX for a couple years & my Mom did for a couple decades.

Bottom line is Phoenix is a ginormous retirement home for people from Iowa, Ohio, Kansas etc.

Just like large swathes of Florida is a ginormous retirement home for people from Massachusetts, NY, NYC, and NJ.

7

Emphasis added.

I highly doubt that HOA officers aren’t elected in any mature community. If you move there you certainly don’t have representation until the next election, but that’s the same as anywhere. The only time HOA officers wouldn’t be elected is when the HOA is brand new and still controlled by the developer who built the houses while they are still mostly on the market. The board of directors here doesn’t change very often, but they are elected, and there has been someone that manage to get onto the board without being from the normal group that runs things.

You probably are referring to the fact that HOAs tend to be dominated by the people who care most about the housing development looking as they want it to look, and those people disproportionately vote for people who will make sure it stays that way, whereas those that don’t really care all that much about the community won’t bother voting and then complain when the HOA comes down on them for some trivial violation. Sure, it might not be fair, but the whole process is democratic, and you (or someone you inherited a home from at least) even made the choice to live there.

8

LSLGuy writes:

> Bottom line is Phoenix is a ginormous retirement home for people from Iowa, Ohio,
> Kansas etc.
>
> Just like large swathes of Florida is a ginormous retirement home for people from
> Massachusetts, NY, NYC, and NJ.

One small part of this is wrong. People from Ohio typically retire to the west coast of Florida. The general rule is that if your fastest path to Florida is via Interstate 95, you retire to the east coast of Florida (Miami, etc.). If your fastest path to Florida is via Interstate 75, you retire to the west coast of Florida (Tampa, etc.). I don’t know how far west you would have to grow up to typically retire to Arizona, but it’s farther west than Ohio.

9

Arizona has a lot of retired older people there. They are always a bit behind the times. You can see new stuff becoming a trend next door in California, then takes awhile for Arizona to catch on.

They are now figuring out this Trump thing though…
(At least the Phoenix Newspaper that is…)

10

Moderator Note

Let’s refrain from side political commentary in GQ. No warning issued, but let’s stick to the general issue of the reasons for the differences between the two states.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

11

Well change that to skateboards then. California was first, then Arizona took awhile to catch on. Also clothing styles.

12

As others have stated, it’s the large older retirement population that makes Arizona a red state. Having moved here from Kansas (not to retire) I can say that Arizona leans more libertarian than conservative.

13

I would imagine that Gary Johnson, the former Governor of New Mexico, is taking away more votes from Trump in NM than elsewhere.

14

My experience living there is about 30 years ago now …

Back then AZ conservatism was less strident. Most of the more Libertarian-leaning conservatives were the sub-group whose motto can be summed up as “Taxes are evil and keep the damn Gummint away from my social security and medicare!!” Unsurprisingly the latter day Tea Party is also real popular there. At least in the suburbs. The AZ natives out in the out-counties are much more like the folks in ID, WY, MT, etc. True leave-me-alone types backing the Rugged Individualist strain of Libertarianism.

Which is not meant as a dig at those groups, but rather to say the state is red because folks of those beliefs are a hefty chunk of the populace.
There was another factor. The vast majority of AZ migrants from the Midwest had had little or no contact with Hispanics back home in Iowa or wherever. Then they got to AZ, looked around at the then 20ish percent of the locals who were Hispanic, freaked out, and cried “we’re being invaded!!!” For particularly lilywhite values of “we.”

As a matter of human nature it’s hardly surprising they’d react that way, especially being older and such and especially at first before becoming acclimated to living in a more mixed culture. The uglier stuff that came later was largely catalyzed by Fox & Arpaio.

15

Moderating

Once again, let’s refrain from political commentary, anecdotes, and opinions. Since this is GQ, factual responses are what we are looking for.

Colibri
General Questions Moderator

16

So why did they end up going to Arizona instead of New Mexico? Sure, once the ball gets rolling, it’s self-sustaining–once you start becoming known as a place for retirees to go then more will keep coming, but what started it all?

Was there some clever marketing campaign to get people there originally? Is Phoenix somehow better suited to older people than Albuquerque?

17

Oh, this one’s easy.

Per Wikipedia, Phoenix’s average low temperature in January is 45.6°F. Albuquerque’s average low in January is 26.1°F. People fleeing midwestern winters will choose Phoenix every time.

I found the summers unbearably hot…riding my bike home from work at 6:00 PM in 115°F heat wasn’t just uncomfortable; it was potentially dangerous. They say that Phoenix’s is a dry heat, but then again, your oven’s heat is pretty dry, too.

My own preferences aside, plenty of Phoenix residents don’t seem to mind the heat.

18

Albuquerque is a decent chunk farther north than Phoenix, and significantly higher in elevation(5200 vs 1000 feet). This causes it to have a lot colder winters, which is exactly what the snow birds are trying to avoid(Albuquerque averages around 47 in January vs 67 for Phoenix for example).

19

That’s an interesting observation. In the hours after Gabrielle Giffords was shot (and six others were killed), it seemed possible that the attack was politically motivated. (It later became clear that the attack wasn’t straightforward political violence; Jared Loughner’s degree of crazy transcended partisan politics).

During those hours, I had a long talk with my then-boss about the rise of social conservatism in Arizona politics. My boss had lived nearly all of his life in Arizona and considered himself a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian. It was his opinion that the homegrown libertarian tradition in Arizona was being swamped by the social conservatism of people moving from, for example, Orange County, CA. He lamented the dilution of libertarianism in Arizona.

My comments were based on his observations, but I’m not wedded to them, so your opinion, Doubticus, is interesting. I’m not trying to discuss politics per se here, but it occurs to me that many libertarians might reject many of [Maricopa County sherrif] Joe Arpaio’s policies as government intrusion into citizens’ private lives. But maybe not; I don’t pretend to know much about libertarianism.

Doubticus, would you say that Arizona as a whole is generally libertarian while the Phoenix area has become more “classically” conservative? Or do you think I’m mis-characterizing the Phoenix area as well? I’m sincerely interested in your answer.

20

I would consider the retirement settlements of say Sun City to be classically conservative. Phoenix as a whole seems to be more anti-tax than socially conservative, especially when compared to Kansas. I would characterize the northern cities of Flagstaff and Sedona as liberal.