I’m here in Tucson, and there’s very little love for Trump that I’ve seen. But Tucson was always the liberal little step-child to Phoenix’s conservative Big Mama.
538 currently has Trump with a 62% chance of winning, but that has varied a lot, and even a few weeks ago he gave Clinton the winning edge.
Obviously, the big variable here is Hispanic voter turnout. Hispanics HATE Trump, and there’s a lot of them in Arizona. Do you think Trump has it all sewn up, or can Clinton win?
Isn’t Flagstaff also a liberal enclave, being a university town?
What are the Hispanic numbers? A quick look-up says 30% of the state is Hispanic, and Trump is highly unlikely to penetrate there. But there are still a glob-ton of white conservatives. My guess is that Trump wins there, but he’d better campaign carefully and wisely. He’s more likely to make a blunder, misstep, or boner than Clinton is.
Phoenix is home to the largest university in the state.
No, Tempe is home to not only the largest university in the state (well, it used to be - looks like their attendance plummeted the last couple years), but ASU is the largest in the country. You may be thinking of the University of Phoenix, the online college.
538 has never given Clinton the winning edge in the Polls Plus forcast.
Clinton has a few times taken Trump with the Polls Only forcast but never with the Polls Plus forcast.
The Polls Only forcast is the model for wishful thinkers.
You’re nitpicking. I’m thinking of ASU, and it’s in the Phoenix metro area, only about 10 miles away.
ASU wish.
I think hopes of Clinton winning Arizona and Georgia are probably wishful thinking. If it were Obama running for a third term, he’d have a fighting chance in Arizona and I would almost wager a victory in Georgia – if it were Obama against Trump, that is.
Maricopa County (Phoenix area) comprises over 60% of the total population of the state, so as Phoenix goes, so does Arizona.
Didn’t Silver only come out with his polls-plus this election? It hasn’t proven itself to be the model of realists.
Wishful yes, but terribly shameful for Trump for having Clinton with a better chance to win the state (behind by just 2 points in the aggregate and well into the rate of error) than the chance Trump has to win the general election (Behind Clinton by 5 or 6 in the aggregates).
No wonder he still has to come down here to incentivize the base in Arpaio’s state when it should had been already in the bag for him.
What effect did Trump calling McCain a loser have on the Republican voters of Arizona? I know it pissed me off, but I don’t live in Arizona.
The hard core true conservatives call McCain a RINO (Republican in Name Only), so they probably liked Trump’s dissing of him. But I think more to the issue is that if you are a Trump fan, calling someone names is just a part of his ‘charm.’
But I’ve seen a lot of Hillary ads on TV, many more presidential TV ads than I remember seeing in the past. Maybe because this is the first time there is even a slight chance for a Democrat to win.
I didn’t realize how close Tempe is to Phoenix. But I think you missed Trinopus’ point - Flagstaff is primarily a college town (thus, a “liberal enclave”). Phoenix/Tempe may house the largest university in the state/country, but it’s also a major metropolitan area - not really what he meant by “enclave” - a term I associate with places like Bloomington IN, Lawrence KS, Ann Arbor MI, Madison WI, etc. - places where the university is the primary identity of the town.
Pretty much, at least by Arizona standards. Map of the 2012 election. You can also click to previous elections in the upper right, but the results are similar.
The blue area in the north is Flagstaff’s county. Tucson’s county is the big blue one to the south. The little one and the northeast one are both small population counties with high minority percentages (Hispanic and Native American, respectively).
You have serious misunderstanding of the different models.
Polls-only is the most hard numbers free of punditry approach.
Polls-plus adds in a Bayesian prior, an expectation of what the election should look like given two generic candidates based on “fundamentals.” What “fundamentals” predict is of course retrofitted to past data. (You can contrast to a different choice of prior by Sam Wang in PEC, based on longer term polling numbers and how much variation past elections have had from polling at this point). The “fundamentals” would predict a close election therefore it pulls the polling numbers towards that result.
Polls-only puts the popular Arizona vote now under 3 points and has had Clinton ahead earlier in August. It puts the odds at Trump 63.6. Polls-plus gives a slightly higher Trump margin and odds.
The big question is of course if “fundamentals” are really value added, across the nation, and more so in particular states with their own dynamics. How, if at all, will “the Trump factor” impact various demographic group turnouts on Election Day? Of course Hispanics, but not only. Arizona is also 5% Mormon … Will some White voters who are usual voters just decide to stay home? If “fundamentals” turn out to bring little value added (and Silver has solidly hedged) then 2.7% is a turnout hinging election.
Odds are for Trump there but it is in play.
If the people at my gym (Paradise Valley area) are any indication, Trump will win Arizona by a landslide. But, it would please me to no end to see him go down in flames.
If it was (almost) any other candidate besides H, Trump would likely lose. But, we will see in November.
Point taken. Phoenix is much more than a college town.
Did anybody bother to just say “No” yet?
Arizona went for a Clinton in '96 so I’d think it could happen again.