No.
As of today, Nate Silver has Trump with a 55% chance of winning Arizona, and Clinton with a 44% chance. Just two weeks ago Trump was polling with an over 75% chance of winning the state. I think the real issue will be the Hispanic turnout. There is a massive Hispanic population in Arizona, and generally they hate Trump, but generally they are less likely to vote.
And after 2 months the amazing thing is that you guys can read my post #11 in this thread, after all those changes we are at the same place again. Clinton has a good chance now.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the ground game will change things. From what I’ve heard, Trump doesn’t have much of a machine while the Dems do (GOTV movement, carpools, etc etc).
Did you not mean to link to the Arizona prediction?
And it shows that bienville is correct in that 538 polls-plus has never given Clinton the edge there.
He didnt specify Arizona.
He was quite obviously talking about Arizona. He was responding to the OP that was discussing the odds there.
"A new poll from Emerson College shows Hillary Clinton has taken the lead over Donald Trump in Arizona.
The poll, released on Thursday morning, shows Clinton has taken the lead in Arizona, by a margin of 44 percent to 42 percent."
I don’t know how reliable this poll is though.
Emerson College gets a B rating at 538, it seems because they have found that Emerson has bias in favor of Republicans of +1.3.
IIUC that means that it is likely worse for Trump in Arizona according to the bias that the pollster has.
I really don’t think she can, nor will she win in Texas or Georgia. She could make Trump and the GOP sweat a little, though.
I still get the feeling that the race will again tighten up one final time. I don’t think Trump has the time left to undo his latest round of damage, but I sense that he may have possibly bottomed out – at least until the next debate anyway. Moreover, the mood just seems to be truly in the throes of an anti-establishment tantrum and Hillary’s got a ceiling of about 50 percent which, no matter how awful Trump seems to behave, she just can’t seem to penetrate. And by that same token, Trump doesn’t seem to sink too far below 40, and he’s not quite that low as we speak.
Regardless of how good Emerson College is in principle, it’s still just one poll, with a limited sample size and a nonzero margin of error. That one poll probably does mean that Trump isn’t winning big in Arizona, but it probably doesn’t mean that Clinton is winning, either. Given the current universe of polling data, it is more likely that Arizona is still slightly pro-Trump and that one poll just happened to fall on the Clinton side of its margin of error.
Actually about half of several polls made recently have shown Clinton ahead:
http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/arizona/
IMHO I will say that currently it is too close to call, Traditionally speaking I would still give an edge to the Republican candidate, but this is not a normal Republican candidate.
It’s not even really a matter of “close”, for all intents and purposes Phoenix/Tempe/Chandler are a single city (+ a few smaller places like Gilbert). You can pass through several towns (or leave and re-enter the same town several times) on your way to work or school if you live there. They’re essentially just boroughs at this point.
I had no idea it was that close. I agree it being a traditional GOP state would make me say the edge goes to Trump for now. BUT, those undecided/3rd party percentages could shift at the last minute and it may not be so favorable to the GOP depending on what he says or does in the next few weeks.
A very relevant article on the topic.
Since Sheriff Joe is on the ballot again, his presence alone will probably motivate proportionally more blue hairs to come out and vote Trump than corresponding Hispanic or young voters.
Not sure about that.
http://www.courthousenews.com/2016/10/03/arpaio-election-race-dives-into-mud-court.htm
538 shows just 3 polls of AZ taken entirely since the first debate: Emerson College, Google Consumer Surveys, and OH Predictive Insights. They show Clinton +2, Clinton +6, and tied, respectively. I wouldn’t put much weight on any one of them by itself, but taken together, I’d say it’s game on.
Can Clinton win it? Unlikely. But Trump could lose it.
Woot! FiveThirtyEight has Arizona the palest shade of blue today. And Hillary’s chance of winning is up to 52.7%.