That’s still just the polls-only model - polls-plus still thinks Arizona is reliably red and gives Trump a 58.4% chance of winning.
On the other hand, I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made that ‘fundamentals’ aren’t going to be particularly predictive in a race as crazy as this one has gotten.
A 58.4% chance of winning isn’t reliable anything. It means that in that model it’s still pink instead or robin’s-egg, but it’s still a fairly light pink.
Well, the model thinks Arizona is red, but that Trump is a wash-out. It averages to pink. Point taken, though.
Jragon, I thought about this post of yours when I saw the following headline from The Onion:
New Study Finds Most Of Earth’s Landmass Will Be Phoenix Suburb By 2050
Arizona is the only state now which flips between polls only and plus plus.
As if right now, 538 shows a 55% chance of Clinton winning Arizona.
And Wallethub ranks which states have the ‘most powerful voters,’ and it ranks Arizona #1. This mostly means that it is the closest to being a swing state.
I bet a douchbag at the gym $100 that Trump will lose the election.
If he loses Arizona, too, I think I’ll actually pay him the $100, just to rub it in!
Arizona’s a toss up. So the answer is “yes.”
It’s not terribly surprising Arizona would start looking blue. Again, the real red-blue split is not just, or even largely, along state borders; it’s also between urban and rural areas. Arizonans are disproportionately located in one city, Phoenix; the city alone holds more than 20% of the state, and if you count immediately connected urban areas it’s half the state. It’s a large, rich, cosmopolitan city, and those places are turning blue.
Fun fact: Phoenix is the most populous city in the USA that is the capital of something.
That’s why Texas (many large cities) and Georgia (Atlanta) are also looking a little more purple these days; big cities. But states without really big cities are still dead red. There are no truly big cities in Wyoming, West Virginia, Arkansas, or Mississippi.
As a resident of Phoenix, I have to violently disagree. It’s pretty politan. Very few cosmos to be found.
The biggest problem politically in Arizona that keeps it more of a red state that tracks Southern/Midwestern apart from other somewhat similar states like Nevada and Colorado is that Arizona is so poor. If there was less poverty in Arizona, which would also likely include a boost in the college education % of the population, it would be more of a true swing state.
Jan Brewer is “helping”. When asked whether Arizona could tip to the Democrats she said that Latinos “don’t get out and vote”.
I’m guessing they will now.
And if there’s one person Latinos despise in Arizona (or anywhere) it’s Jan Brewer. They probably hate her 100X more than they hate Trump.
Governor Ducey is still firmly supporting Trump. McCain wants to distance himself from Trump, but it’s too late for him. I think McCain is done.
He’s been consistently up at least 10 points in the majority of polls I’ve seen. Unless he suddenly drops dead (which is not outside the realm of possibility, he’s 80 years old), I don’t see him losing that race.
Why do you say he’s done?