This could go into IMHO or MPSIMS or anywhere else:
Imagine if the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq were still dragging on and nearing its 4-year anniversary. The United States had already suffered 2.5 million casualties (dead or wounded) in its military ranks (Russia’s losses adjusted to account for larger U.S. proportional population size.) The United States had already spent $3 trillion on the war. And all the U.S. had to show for this was…..the capture of merely 20% of Iraqi territory. U.S. forces were nowhere even near Baghdad, and stood essentially zero chance of capturing the Iraqi capital city. And now the U.S. military budget stood at about $2.2 trillion annually.
Even the most thick-headed U.S. president couldn’t possibly spin that as a “winning” American war campaign to any audience, nor would he himself think of it as one. Yet somehow Putin and his cronies are not only able to spin Ukraine as a winning campaign, but even seem to genuinely believe it themselves and feel satisfied and pleased.
The simple answer might seem to be “Well, Americans are just spoiled; the USA is accustomed to easy lopsided wins” but the Putin logic doesn’t apply to other dictators in his mold. You can’t imagine a guy like Hitler, for instance, being okay with the Wehrmacht taking four years to capture just 20% of France (as opposed to reaching Paris in just 6 weeks in real life, and capturing all of Holland in 5 days.) Nobody but Putin and the Russian elite seem satisfied with such a slow, grinding pace for so little. It would be one thing if Putin were furious at the slow pace of gains and simply couldn’t advance further, but no - he seems pleased as a cat.
Do Russians just have extremely low standards for victory, or not remember the Soviets pushed all the way to Berlin, a far greater distance, in far less time than what’s gone on in Ukraine? Does Russian culture just have an attitude of “A grade of D- is okay since it isn’t an F?” Do they have this same attitude towards academia, trains, bridges, highways, doing anything else?
I think the Russian elites are spinning it as though they’re fighting not just against Ukraine, but also against America and the whole of the West - and if that’s the case, well, the fact that they’re still advancing (albeit slowly) is clear proof of glorious Russian victory. Whether the Russian people are buying it, I can’t tell you. The Russians have a history of being very docile and accepting… until they aren’t.
Czarist Russia regarded peasants as brutes, like expendable draft animals Despite the regime change, that attitude stayed.
They had the most WWII casualties because they had no problem sending soldiers to their deaths.
They also countered the German invasion force by razing their own towns so the Germans couldn’t resupply. While an effective tactic, the forcible evictions added to the casualty count.
The American Civil War is a better comparison than the Iraq invasion. Russia considers Ukraine an integral part of Russia’s rightful and natural sphere of influence that was tempted out of the fold by their enemies in the West. I’m not sure what percentage of the South the Union army occupied at any given point in the war, but t took them nearly four years to capture the Confederate capital, and I suspect the per capita losses were more substantial than Russia’s during the current war. Russia is also using a moral rallying cry (“Drive the Nazis out of Ukraine”) that carries a righteous power almost as crusade-like as “Free the slaves”.
Simply put, Russia isn’t the USA (yet), and Putin isn’t a normal leader by the prior USA standards.
Profits? He has control of fundamentally infinite money. Losses? As long as they aren’t him (possibly a few others he cares for) it doesn’t matter. Putin sees himself as Russia, and it’s all about increasing glory (even if minor) and restoring an Empire. And no one has been able to gainsay him without falling out a window or the like.
It’s apples to kumquats - not even a close comparison.
They have to spin it positive. Anything otherwise would be admitting weakness, and admitting it was wrong in the first place. And since the State controls information people see and read, it’s easy to stay on message and in the bubble without those pesky investigative reporters and the opposition asking uncomfortable questions. Privately, they may feel like they should have gotten more or that it should have gone easier and better for the Russian soldiers, but for the assistance of the West…
Sure, but Russia didn’t invade Iraq nor lose anywhere near that many soldiers nor spend anywhere near that much money. Other than that, yeah, totes embarrassing for them. I’m sure they feel so silly right now.
As opposed to the people of Israel who would never let a corrupt man dominate their politics for so long and then let him lead a major war.
My dad believed that the US won the Korean War, and grudgingly admitted that Vietnam was a draw. Because even though we lost North Korea and Vietnam, we stopped the Russians from advancing further down either of those peninsulas, to the lands south of Korea and Vietnam.
Russia is using the same template. Thanks to their quick and decisive action in Ukraine, they’ve prevented the evil NATO from gaining any more territory, other than the territory they’ve gained as a direct result of the war. And that was their objective all along, so they’re winning.
There is nothing really ‘there’ with Russia. Much like the old Soviet Union, the expense is too great to keep going, going broke. Trump’s recent posturing by publically moving a few submarines, was to remind Russia that they can’t really do the same. There is no world wide web of Russian subs, not any longer. The Cold War is over. He wanted Putin to know before these new talks.
Extrapolated for population size, they did. Russia’s population is about 40% the size of the USA’s and its economy is more than 12 times smaller. So proportionally, it’s like as if America lost 2.5 million men to death or injury.
My understanding is the narrative Russia is pushing is that Russia is fighting against all of NATO, and they are holding their own. This narrative makes them think they are fighting an enemy far stronger than they really are.
The reality is Ukraine gets about 50 billion a year in military aid from NATO countries, much of it equipment that was manufactured decades ago and was becoming obsolete. If NATO actually got involved in Ukraine, then the Russian air force would be obliterated in a week.
Either way, someone like Putin cannot admit weakness. Toxic people are world renowned for reinventing reality so that it protects their egos. Russia invaded Ukraine thinking it would be like the invasion of Crimea. A short invasion with no resistance. The invaders brought uniforms to wear during the parades after they won the war.
The costs of the meat-grinder are politically manageable in Putin’s regime. Autocracies reward brutal psychotic dictatorships with long regimes.
Ok, what’s the upside though? Why not just declare victory and get out? A Western-oriented Ukraine that successfully integrated with Western Europe would make Russian rulers look bad: it would make their inept policies appear inept. But that’s not all. Zelensky was an actor that jumped into power by, “Converting his personal popularity into votes.” Putin really doesn’t like that. It didn’t matter that Zelensky ran for office as an ultra-dove and he beat an ultra-hawk (Poroshenko ), hostile to Russia, in the election:
In the 2020s, President Putin faced a TV star ruling in Kyiv, and he would not allow him to just rule there. He attempted a forceful regime change, spiralling into a long and bloody war instead. And that is because a famous TV star ruling in Kyiv demonstrated that you can convert your personal popularity into the political power, and demonstrated it to everyone.
…Poroshenko was not friendlier than Zelensky. If anything, it had been the opposite. But the rule of an oligarch-turned-bureaucrat in Kyiv did not threaten the political balance in Moscow.
All foreign policy is domestic policy. National interests are almost a fiction, tertiary considerations at best.