Why is this SDMB community blind to reality? [re Palin/McCain threads]

[Bricker]

During the 2004 campaign (and even its aftermath) it became popular here to describe adherents of a particular worldview as “reality-based.” Remember that, members of the reality-based community? Do you still have your membership cards and lapel pins around?

GD Thread Titles, Page 1:

**Is Palin evidence of McCain’s incompetence as an executive?

McCain wanted Lieberman or Ridge, met with Palin for the first time last week

Palin chuckles at shock jock’s puerile insults

How should Palin address her family situation

What kind of maverick takes marching orders from his party?

Sarah Palin investigated for Abuse of Gubernatorial Power. Some Questions.

And again – who IS Sarah Palin **
CNN Poll (after Palin’s selection as running mate):

Obama up by 1 point.

Now, the issue for this thread is NOT Palin’s baby, her birthing decisions, her secret status as a grandmother (or not-so-secret status as a grandmother-to-be).

It’s this: where in any of these outpourings of critiques and attacks is the …um… “reality-based” acknowledgment that, while Obama is ahead in the polls, it’s nowhere close to the double-digit shutout that the commentary here would suggest.

A neutral observer, judging America’s mood by the front page of GD, would conclude that Obama is an overwhelming favorite. The polls don’t add up to that.

Are the polls wrong? Is it those damn college kids with only cell phones again – you remember, the ones that kept skewing Kerry’s numbers low, but don’t worry?

[Slacker]

I don’t understand. You want us to acknowledge the close race in every comment about the election or the candidates? Like:

*Poster one: I know Obama’s only one point ahead, but what do you think about Troopergate?

Poster two: The evidence is pretty compelling. However, it is true that Obama is only up by one point in the latest polls. *

That seems a little odd to me. What do any of the discussions you mentioned have to do with the margin in the race?

[Marley23]

@Bricker

During the 2004 campaign (and even its aftermath) it became popular here to describe adherents of a particular worldview as “reality-based.”

That wasn’t just here. It was a parody or spinning of a comment from this article.

A neutral observer, judging America’s mood by the front page of GD, would conclude that Obama is an overwhelming favorite. The polls don’t add up to that.

This isn’t a random sampling of the public and doesn’t (on its own) indicate that anybody is blind to reality. It shows that most of the board membership skews left, and I don’t think that’s news to anybody.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

I think **Bricker **is trying to say that the thread titles aren’t an accurate reflection of what’s actually going on in the real world.

Yes and no. Those questions are very real and being raised and this is a left-leaning messageboard.

[Mr.Moto]

I was shaking my head about this too.

I think there might be a lot to criticize Palin and McCain over, but I think you can do that without becoming a muckraking, slobbering moron - like Andrew Sullivan, or some of our more outspoken members - who I will not name. This isn’t the Pit, after all.

I think Obama himself recognized this, since he reined in criticism of Palin by campaign aides and then had to disavow attacks on her family by supporters.

Personally, I think the Palin pick was risky - I like her, but that doesn’t mean that it will work out. But if it doesn’t work out, that will be because of Palin, not the nutcases on message boards.

[glee]

@Bricker

A neutral observer, judging America’s mood by the front page of GD, would conclude that Obama is an overwhelming favorite. The polls don’t add up to that.

I saw some coverage of a large group of Americans meeting in Minneapolis-St Paul right now to discuss politics. Judging from their reaction, McCain will get 100% of the vote. :eek:

As a foreign observer, I note that the Republican VP nominee wants Creationism discussed in science lessons. :smack:

[Maeglin]

@Bricker

It’s this: where in any of these outpourings of critiques and attacks is the …um… “reality-based” acknowledgment that, while Obama is ahead in the polls, it’s nowhere close to the double-digit shutout that the commentary here would suggest.

A neutral observer, judging America’s mood by the front page of GD, would conclude that Obama is an overwhelming favorite. The polls don’t add up to that.

Are the polls wrong? Is it those damn college kids with only cell phones again – you remember, the ones that kept skewing Kerry’s numbers low, but don’t worry?

The reality-based acknowledgement is that a vocal component of the SDMB is amused and horrified by McCain’s choice. This is not the basis for a valid inference over the population, nor is anyone to my knowledge saying as much.

This is essentially a re-hash of the tired “why can’t Obama close the deal” line of argument. He can’t close the deal because it isn’t yet election day. National-level polls are doubly uninformative, as they are plagued by sampling and selection biases (that can favor Obama, too). More importantly, we don’t elect our president this way.

The commentary here does not suggest a double digit blowout. It just suggests that there are people on the internet with opinions. It’s shocking, I know.

[Gadarene]

McCain wanted Lieberman or Ridge, met with Palin for the first time last week

I don’t know about the others, but my thread was remarking on some interesting news that was reported in the New York Times. I found it striking and wanted to see if others took away something different from it than I did.

I’m not sure what your point is, Bricker. How does my starting that thread indicate that I’m “blind to reality”?

[Hentor_the_Barbarian]

Bricker, you seem either ignorant or forgetful regarding the source and nature of the term “reality-based”.

The source of the term is a quotation in an October 17, 2004, New York Times Magazine article by writer Ron Suskind, quoting an unnamed aide to George W. Bush:

The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” … “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”[1]

The other things that you seem ignorant of is a) that there are many polls that have different results than CNN, and b) the national horserace poll means pretty much dick. It’s the state-by-state polling consistent with the electoral college that has anything to do with the state of the race right now. If national polling meant anything, you wouldn’t ever hear anything about “battleground states” would you?

[Jophiel]

@Bricker

CNN Poll (after Palin’s selection as running mate):

Obama up by 1 point.

You selected the one poll showing a near tie (intentional or not). From the current RCP tracker:

Rasmussen Obama +5
Gallup Obama +8
Hotline/FD Obama +9
CBS Obama +8

I’m sure the Palin criticism is somewhat overblown here but your post seems to have a flawed premise, that Obama’s lead is very slender.

I think that given the hyper-partisan nature of the nation these days and the fact that both candidates are well liked and compelling figures with “change” credentials, expecting either to hold the “double digit” leads I keep hearing are required is a bit silly.

[Lamar_Mundane]

It should be noted, if reality is the scale by which we are measuring the race, then Bricker is grossly and intentionally distorting it. He chooses a poll taken over three days, before any of the real truth about Sarah Palin came out.

Another poll taken over the same period by CBS has Obama +8. More recent polls (and I am not leaving any of them out) show Obama +9 (Hotline/FD), Obama + 8 (Gallup tracking), and Obama +5 (Rasmussen). The national average of all recent polls, starting on the day CNN started, is Obama +6.2.

That’s what people mean about the reality-based community. No cherry-picking polls. Just the truth.

[Mr.Moto]

Right, battleground states. Like, say, those in the West - where a primary concern tends to be resource allocation, land use, and the vast amount of land owned by the federal government relative to other states.

I think a senator from Arizona might have some understanding of these, and I know a lifelong resident of Alaska will.

It might be interesting to see some analysis of this instead of gynecological data - but I don’t have high hopes here.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@Lamar_Mundane

That’s what people mean about the reality-based community. No cherry-picking polls. Just the truth.

Ouch Bricker! It hurts because its true.

[Maeglin]

@Mr.Moto

Right, battleground states. Like, say, those in the West - where a primary concern tends to be resource allocation, land use, and the vast amount of land owned by the federal government relative to other states.

I think a senator from Arizona might have some understanding of these, and I know a lifelong resident of Alaska will.

It might be interesting to see some analysis of this instead of gynecological data - but I don’t have high hopes here.

Actually, considering McCain’s pointed remarks on renegotiating Colorado’s water allocation, I have to wonder just how deep McCain’s understanding of this issue really is.

[pseudotriton_ruber_ruber]

I don’t follow.

Is Palin evidence of McCain’s incompetence as an executive?

Are you saying that either “Yes” or “No” is an unacceptable answer? Please explain.
**
McCain wanted Lieberman or Ridge, met with Palin for the first time last week**
McCain didn’t want these guys for VP? He met Palin many times before last week?

Palin chuckles at shock jock’s puerile insults
having heard the evidence, are you now prepared that was a belch rather than a chuckle?

How should Palin address her family situation
Are you saying that in the name of politeness and decency, she should refuse to address the situation in any way? Do you really think that will fly? Please explain.
What kind of maverick takes marching orders from his party?
In this one, I asked if there were any sort of precedent for any Presidential nominee, much less a bold independent maverick, accepting mildly the party’s choice for his VP despite his own strong preferences. Do you have another example of this ever happening? Thanks for supplying it, or the closest documented parallel.

Sarah Palin investigated for Abuse of Gubernatorial Power. Some Questions.
We should all just shut our filthy lying mouths about this incident? Why, in your view?

**And again – who IS Sarah Palin **
No one had heard of her until last week–why isn’t this a legitimate question? Why not tell us who you think she is, instead of questioning the motives of the people asking the question?

Thanks for any light you can shed on these issues.

[Hentor_the_Barbarian]

@Maeglin

Actually, considering McCain’s pointed remarks on renegotiating Colorado’s water allocation, I have to wonder just how deep McCain’s understanding of this issue really is.

Don’t let reality get in the way of a good dig at “gynecological” concerns.

[Maeglin]

@Hentor_the_Barbarian

Don’t let reality get in the way of a good dig at “gynecological” concerns.

As political as I am, I prefer to to keep debating and digging at gynecological concerns completely separate. And my wife isn’t even a Republican.

[Phlosphr]

Bricker sounds frustrated that an internet message board is not “reality” based.

I know a lot of us have been around these boards for a long while, and yes some of us have views that converge, but that is the reality of this board. I mean how do you really know which one of us is posting with a pink tutu and who is sitting in a cube.

[CJJ]

@Lamar_Mundane

Another poll taken over the same period by CBS has Obama +8. More recent polls (and I am not leaving any of them out) show Obama +9 (Hotline/FD), Obama + 8 (Gallup tracking), and Obama +5 (Rasmussen). The national average of all recent polls, starting on the day CNN started, is Obama +6.2.

It’s worse than that. With the possible exception of NH, Obama has a comfortable lead (7+ points) in every state won by Kerry in 2004. He also has comfortable leads in IA and NM. That alone accounts for 264 EV’s; Obama can win any one of five battleground states–CO, NV, VA, NC, FL–and win the election (NV will give him a tie, but he would certainly win in the House). Any one of these except NV would make the loss of NH irrelevant. Plus, there are several states in the upper Rockies/Plains that McCain needs to campaign in to hold. If anything, the national poll makes the race seem closer than it is, even with a 5-8 point lead.

[Merijeek]

Awww…this is so adorable. Bricker wants the thread titling to be “Fair and Balanced”.

It would be hilarious if he was an illiterate dock worker. Instead he’s a lawyer. Pretty fucking scary.

-Joe