Why was Obama ahead of McCain before the crash?

I still contend that it was, or should have been, glaringly obvious to anyone beginning in 1999 (or earlier, I’m sure, if you lived in Texas) that he should not be president. Admittedly, I read Molly Ivins’ book Shrub (or even better, listened to her read it in audiobook form in that distinctive drawl of hers) when it came out. So I knew better than the average person what a spectacular failure he was at everything he had ever tried, at least in substantive terms (thanks to his connections, he kept on being rewarded for failure).

But even if they knew nothing else about him, anyone who watched him in the debates and then said “Al Gore sighed too loudly, I’m voting for Bush” gets no respect from me for finally figuring it out by 2008 (or 2006, even).

ETA:

I always kinda thought she herself came across as a “fringe nutjob/America-hater”. She struck me as the sort of ultra-leftist that these days castigates Obama for being too right wing or whatever, and wants to shut down the Pentagon and replace it with a “Department of Peace” (and in case it’s not clear, I have no patience for such people).