Hang out at some of the Las Vegas message boards. There are people out there that are positive they have a winning system at roulette, for example, just because they had a winning trip or two. The game is about as close to betting on a RNG as possible, but they are sure they have found a loophole in probability.
This belief is how Steve Wynn pays his light bill.
I played video poker in a California Indian casino once (I usually go to Nevada) and was startled to see that the machine would indicate for me which cards I should hold. (which was overrideable, but required something other than just hitting the “Deal” button again). So basically this machine had the same app as the phone, built in.
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I’ve seen Jacks-or-Better games that indicated what cards you should hold *if you already held a winning hand. * If you flopped two pair it’d highlight the two pair, for instance. But I’ve never seen one that showed optimal holds that were not winning hands - I’ve never seen a machine show you should hold four cards to a flush, for example.
JoB is now the only casino game I will play that isn’t actual poker, as it’s a cheap time-waster when I’m waiting to play poker. But it can’t be beaten long term.
Some very smart people have, in the past, beat roulette. Smart enough that I’m confident they’re not bragging about two winning trips on a message board.
What happens when “they” kick you out of a casino? Let’s say I figure out a way to win enough become a nuisance, what would happen? They ask me to leave that day but I can come back tomorrow? They permanently bar me and pass my photo around or stop me in some other fashion? If I’m in a city like Vegas where more than one casino may be owned by the same corporation, am I banned from all of them? I’m just wondering what the mechanics and permanency are.
I’m asking as someone whose casino experience goes as far as playing nickle slots until I was up by $20 and called it a winning day.
In Nevada we have what is known as the “Black Book” where people known for or suspected of cheating are listed. Being on that list means you are banned from all casinos in the state.
Interesting that almost every person I looked at (not all of them) had some pretty exceptional violations: mob activity, multi-million dollar cheating operations etc. Not exactly card counting or being found with an ace in your sleeve, so to speak. I would have guessed the list to be a lot longer and more inclusive.
How could you beat roulette without cheating (e.g. adding chips after the ball drops) on a fair wheel?
You’d find an unusual house rule or house bet that has, on average, an expected return greater than the bet. The casino would change that rule pretty damn fast, believe me. But if that sort of thing happens, it’s usually a player who spots it, not the casino, and sometimes gets away with a hunk of cash before it gets fixed. However, with roulette specifically, all the instances I’m aware of involved a mechanical defect in the wheel that the player took advantage of.
I work in a Vegas casino as a Security manager. It’s a big part of my job to “kick people out” of the hotel or casino. It’s not exactly common, but it happens for all sorts of reasons, although most of them boil down to causing a disruption or bothering other guests and players.
I have never removed any patron for winning at a table game, including craps or blackjack. Occasionally a pit boss (a game supervisor) will refuse to deal blackjack to someone who is counting cards. This is an extremely rare occurrence, and virtually never results in that person being kicked out of the casino. Not even a handful of people a year are refused service for this reason.
When it comes to craps, I have never even HEARD of a guest being denied service for any type of advantaged, legal play. I would pretty confidently say that no patron has ever been denied service at a craps table at my casino simply because of their play strategy.
The “black book” is not a list of people that casinos have decided to ban. The list is made by Gaming Control, the government body with law-enforcement power over gaming matters. They are police in every sense of the word. Casinos have no say over who goes in or comes out of the black book.
Incidentally, Nick the Greek really did manage to make a long-term profit at gambling, but he did it by making side bets with other players. Like, if a player next to him said “I’m sure I’ll get a five on this next roll!”, Nick would bet him (with some appropriate odds) that he wouldn’t.
Invent a wearable computer that can measure the speed of the ball/wheel and give an estimate of where the ball will land.
The two people that did this are Edward O. Thorpe and Claude Shannon. It’s detailed (among other things) in the book Fortune’s Formula.
IIRC, their blackjack system had better returns and they didn’t have to worry about the computer malfunctioning, so they stuck with that.
True. Good thing I never said anything that contradicts what you said, eh?
You can’t today, but you could in the past when there was no law against using an electronic device to aid you. It’s been illegal for quite a while now.
They wont throw you out, like any good drug dealer they will give you the first few for free.
Theoretically, if a roulette wheel was slightly imbalanced, you could analyze a few days worth of results and find a bet that was in your favor. They keep a pretty close eye on the physical devices, though, and it’s not likely that you could identify a bad wheel before they do.
These days they record all the results for each wheel and run statistical analyses on them, so they’ll find it first.
There are times that you can beat casinos for limited amounts by taking advantage of promotions. Usually, the deal is that you get a certain amount of losses covered. Like, if they’ll cover your losses up to some amount, then you take that amount and play until you double it or lose it. You’ll double it maybe 40% of the time and lose it 60%, which gives you an expected value of +20% on whatever limit they’ve established.
Are you talking about a strategy card for video poker?
I was of the assumption that not only were strategy cards for video poker were not only legal, but ENCOURAGED by casinos. Hell, the casinos I go to, sell strategy cards in the gift shop.
If you aren’t wasting time thinking what cards to hold, you are using that time to bet more money through additional hands. Yes, you are playing with better odds, but what good are odds in a game that is so based on luck?