There is a study by Pew, reported in NPR today, which says that if all eligible voters had voted in 2024, Trump would have won that election, and by a wider margin.
I don’t have the skills to critique their methodology, so I’m assuming this is in the ballpark of an accurate conclusion. That, along with the friendly Supreme Court, leads me to believe that Trump will succeed at any tactic he may use to stay in power, if he wants to, demonstrations to the contrary notwithstanding.
On the other hand, I don’t believe this mandate for power will carry over to any successor that might arise or be appointed to take over after him. I believe Trump is sui generis in his ability to do what he is doing, and that once he is gone, the nostalgia for his reign will not hold up to the obviousness of the sleazeball toadies left in his wake. If there were to be a rising “star” of that sort on the right, Trump would smash them like a bug while he is still around. The end will be like the death of Stalin – everyone tiptoeing around making sure he is really really dead before making their move.
So my direct answer to the OP is “probably not.” And I don’t take it as any kind of guarantee of a better country if a Democrat is elected – referring back to that Pew study, someone like Trump (if one can be found under a Democratic banner) seems to be what people want.
I am not sure I agree with that. A quarter century ago, most people wanted cars, but then the industry (for possible reasons that may sound CTish) pounded so hard on the SUV that it has become what most people want. The media wants someone like … because he gives them lots of easy material, and the media has held enormous sway hn elections.
I don’t know. I think it is a complete toss-up at this point. Every election since 2000 that didn’t have Barack Obama on the ballot has been extremely close, and in this case, we have no idea who the candidates are going to be, which makes it even harder to tell. (I am willing to bet good money that yes, there will be an election, and no, Trump will not be a candidate. Among other things, in 2028 he will be the same age Biden was in 2024, and we already saw how that went.)
If I were gonna make a longer-term prediction, I would guess that we are moving toward an era that looks roughly like 1968-1992, with Republicans holding the presidency most of the time and Democrats holding Congress most of the time*, and that this might actually be a good thing**, but I don’t feel confident that this is what will happen in the immediate short term.
Because college-educated people are the Democrats’ new base, and they’re the ones who actually turn out in midterms.
** Because it’s easy to dig in and refuse to compromise if you think you’re going to get a trifecta next election cycle, but if we reach an equilibrium where no one has a trifecta, sooner or later people have to work together.
I’m pretty sure Trump will be on the ballot if he’s still alive, even if he’s descended into completely dementia and can’t even talk. They’ll just have somebody stand next to him and “interpret” his mumbles. The Republicans are just that much of a Trump cult, now.
Relevance to the thread is that if the Democrats nominate a relatively boring eat-your-spinach moderate candidate, low propensity GOP voters will stay home, and Democrats should win in 2028.
I don’t think that the bunch of nincompoops that are running Trump can actually pull off a fascist coup. If the repugs actually pass the OBBB, they wil piss off a lot of Trumpers. Any Dem can campaign on, They took away your medicare, they took away your food stamps, how can you support them?
There was a sad editorial in today’s Times that the OBBB will destroy Alaska. Written by two members of the AK legislature (one from each party). And I could only think, This is what you guys voted for. Don’t complain to me.
Yes, I really think there will be an election in 2028 and the Dems will win.
We are barely 6 months into the 2nd term of Felon 47 so it is too early to be very confident of anything about 2028.
Having said that I will say at this point I find a Democratic victory at best around 35-40% in the race for President. There is too much infighting (see the David Hogg situation and the current NYC Mayor’s race) and the establishment Dems are determined to block the extreme left even if it costs them most of the voters under 40. The party leaders have no clue how to win at this point and the money is drying up.
I will say this:
Elections will take place in 2028
Trump will not be on the ballot
Biden will not be a meaningful issue for any Democrats who run
The next President will NOT be a Democrat.
I’ve said it elsewhere and I don’t want to hijack this thread but the focus at this point has to be on what happens next week or next month and how we can fight that. The Democratic leadership has no plan on how to handle what is happening daily. SCOTUS is giving in to Felon 47 more and more each day. Until the Democrats at least start organizing and fighting what is happening daily, 2026 and 2028 don’t matter.
Thank you for that perspective. Sometimes I feel like a yo-yo, optimistic one minute, gloom and doom the next, and this is not my normal state. I don’t think I’m the only one on this board who has complained of this phenomenon.
Congress will be close to 50-50 and obstructionist Republicans will make it ineffectual.
The damage Trump and enablers have done will only really start to become obvious in 2028, when the spin stops and good governance cannot quickly and easily repair what has been damaged or broken.
A Republican is elected in 2032 who gets credit for the Democrat’s economic policies’ successes.
The Republicans have made a big push out of disenfranchising Democratic voters and taking control of the election process. They will be ready to fix the outcome of the 2028 election and ensure that Republicans win the presidency and a safe majority in both halves of congress.
That said, they will allow elections to occur and will allow Democrats to win some of them. They will want to maintain the illusion of the country still having a democratic system of government.
I remember watching “The Daily Show” in the late 2000s and early 2010s, when Jon Stewart would regularly play clips of conservative pundits and politicians talking out of both sides of their mouths, exposing them for the massive hypocrites that they were. At the time I would think, “Wow, he utterly eviscerated these clowns. Anyone with two brain cells together can clearly see they’re full of shit. No way that Mitch McConnell, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity or any of the other GOP and Fox News assholes being skewered here will come through this with their careers unscathed.”
I used to think that there was no way Trump could have a third term. The Supreme Court would surely not allow that. But now I believe that if Trump is alive he will run again (as far as I know, nothing bars him from running) and the court will find some twisted argument that allows him to actually be president again, the constitution be damned. Imagine what would happen if Trump won the election and the court didn’t allow him to remain in office. January 6 times 100. January 600.
If he’s dead, the Democrats have a chance. MAGA people only like Trump himself and many of them will stop voting when he’s dead. They hated every candidate before he came along and they’ll hate everyone after. They’ll still blame liberals for the problems they helped caused but they’ll stay home at election time because the choices will be politicians and they hate those lying, thieving politicians.
They did have brain cells, but Fox took care of that. Some of them still have brain cells, but the dynamic has been studied: watching Fox causes the most active neurons to migrate from the frontal lobes, where abstract logical reasoning occurs, back to the amygdala, which specializes in identifying threats and issuing fear signals. The amygdala is a useful brain structure, but when it dominates mental function we get atavism.
SCOTUS has just decided that they will never have to hear that case. Trump runs again, then Trump wins again, then there is a lawsuit. The plaintiff will easily win, as it’s a clear violation of 22. Now Trump is not the president of that plaintiff, but still is for everyone else. How will that work when a few dozen people can get their case heard and Trump isn’t their president? Not the courts’ problem. They’ll probably just be deported.
Oh, but states can sue, won’t it be weird if Trump is not the president of Vermont, or something. Nope, the states will lose, just like the when Colorado tried to keep Trump off the ballot. It isn’t the states’ job to decide if someone is president, that is congress’ job. SCOTUS will be able to reject any state’s lawsuit without even addressing the issue of 22.
What about a class action on behalf of everyone who votes against Trump in 2028? Class action suits take a long time, with certifying the class and all of that business. It will probably be 2032 before it even gets heard.