Isn’t it going to come down to the same 6-10 “swing states”? Will enough folk in those states change their minds? Or will turnout be drastically different?
I’m inclined to think that an America that was venal and stupid enough to elect Trump twice - over vastly better competitors, will likely vote for whomever he designates as his successor.
A wacky wildcard would be if Trump does not run again, but is too stupid to anoint a successor. That could be wild.
Why do you figure he lost the election in between?
I agree, they are just fascist wanna-bes.
I agree to all but the last one. The election will be close, unless- The GOP or the Dems run a complete loser, like McGovern or Goldwater.
I think these are quite possible.
If anyone says they know how things will work out in 2028 they are wrong.
The range possibilities goes from Trump successfully running for a third term (or getting away with not having an election in 2028) to the Democrats sweeping presidency and Congress with an unheard of landslide. But no one knows how likely any of these things is relative to each other, we have never faced a political situation like this one (you can draw parallels to say Putin or Orban, but 2028 America is not Russia nor Hungary, nor 1930s Germany, etc.)
If you forced me to make a prediction I’d probably err towards things being so so bad by 2028 that no amount of electoral shenanigans can prevent a Democrat win (and also the chances of Trump being in a fit state to speak and feed himself in 2028, let alone pull off a coup to illegally run for a third, are low IMO, and without Trump the GOP’s chances fall a lot). But I have no confidence in that prediction, we are in uncharted territory
Trump will declare some kind of emergency in late 2027 or early 2028, declare martial law nationwide and suspend elections. No, that’s not legal but he’ll do it anyway and this Supreme Court will let him.
I think our best hope is that he dies in office before his term is up. And given his declining mental state, there’s a non-zero chance of that. The MAGATs are loyal to him only; Vance can’t command them as he does. Without him the movement splinters and maybe we can get back some semblance of sanity.
Yeah - good point. I admit I got no idea why folk came out/stayed home in the past 3 elections, or why significant numbers of folk woulda changed their support for Trump over that cycle. Having him be re-elected - with the strongly R Congress and courts, does not make me sanguine about the chances for 28.
How large must an ethnic majority be to make a country homogeneous? Ethnic Hungarians made up only 80% of its population when it went fascist in the 1940s. In the US, 60% of the population is non-Hispanic white (admittedly not an ethnicity, but probably a reasonably accurate proxy for cultural affinity).
Because
Trump’s own officials say 2020 was America’s most secure election in history
a cabal of experts put a lot of effort into insuring a free and fair election, which is the kind that Felon-ONE is not able to win.
I perceive that what we are currently seeing reflects a sizable portion of that 60% desiring to codify/solidify their preferential status before they drop below 50%.
This is what I am thinking too. But Trump will try to blame the coming recession/inflation on Biden whatever happens. And the sheepies will buy it.
Incidentally, whatever Trump pulls or tries to pull, Obama will not let himself get sucked in to running again. I still remember watching his first inauguration with tears in my eyes. It all seemed so hopeful in 2009.
Baathist Iraq was ruled in Fascist fashion by a ~20% minority religio-ethnicity.
Nothing about authoritarianism demands ethnic homogeneity. It merely demands religio-ethnic solidarity.
ETA: And economic dominance by the wannabe ruling group.
Those conditions in the USA are very thoroughly filled by white cis het Xian assholes.
Except, ba’athist were known to be adamant secularists.
Maybe, maybe not.
So far Felon 47 is declaring victory on the economy, immigration, egg and gasoline prices dropping and now on cowing Iran in a way no other President has. Of course it is all bullshit but his cult are eating it up and the right-wing media are crowing about the supposed success. Even some of the MSM is repeating the lies.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are fighting internally and short on cash.. They are failing to come up with a strategy to stop 47 and his minions and the party establishment is attacking the progressive wing which will drive away younger voters. Things have to change soon for there to be hope in '26 much less in '28.
Doesn’t matter. Did they rule as a totalitarian minority who were the economic ruling class? Yes.
Then they’re a valid prototype for a totalitarian minority economically ruling class here.
1 and 2, I agree (and for those of you who know me, I will not bring up “that” alternative again).
3 depends on the candidates. If the Democrats push too far to the left (AOC, Sanders, maybe Newsom), I can see the Republicans winning - especially if:
Here’s my #4: Trump campaigns with the Republican nominee and promises to be his “right-hand man” (read: the elected President is a combination figurehead head of state - think, say, a Commonwealth Governor-General - and a rubber stamp for Kingmaker Trump).
I think Biden’s biggest advantage in 2020 was, he did not come across as too far to the left.
The question is, who do the Democrats have that isn’t too far left, and will the Democrats nominate that person?
Good point. Even if Trump doesn’t run as VP, and if his health holds up (IMHO likely) he will try this.
Any Democratic governor would be moderate enough, or be able to pivot. As for non-governors, Sen. Gallego is moderate enough, can deliver his swing state, and will help with a demographic otherwise slipping away from the D column (Latino men).
Who the Democrats will nominate is impossible to say. But primary voters are likely more moderate than most Democratic internet posters, so a moderate is more than possible.
I could see him attempting this, it’s what his boss Putin did at one point (IIRC when Putin was president the PM role was purely ceremonial and the president had all the power, when Putin “stepped down” from the presidency and became PM suddenly the reverse was true)
If course I can totally see JD Vance, or whatever scumbag agrees to this, saying “Oh yes your highness, you will have all the power, of course.” As Trump dribbles and led by his nurse to a back room to be fed apple sauce and watch reruns of his 2024 victory.
Didn’t anyone tell you not to mention “Trump VP in 2028” around me? We don’t need, what, a fourth thread about this?
Hoping for Cory Booker or Gavin Newsom