This assume trump is still alive.
I kinda like Newsom, but Booker came out in favor of door to door gun confiscation. Unless he moderate that position, he will lose.
The key issue in all this is Trump’s health. The man is on the point of cognitive collapse, and it’s getting so bad that it can’t be hidden or dismissed any more by the media:
I don’t think this guy is going to make it to the end of 2026, much less 2028. If he does, it will be a total prop job. The idea of him sneakily running for a third term is absurd at this juncture.
JD Vance will almost certainly be the 28th president before the next POTUS election is held. Since he will be president, he will almost certainly get the GOP nomination. The only chance he has of winning is if he moderates and seeks to be an actually good and popular president, and he can only do that if Trump exists sooner rather than later. I don’t think it’s very likely, however, as JD Vance is neither charismatic nor popular among the general electorate, and, although he is a chameleon by nature, I don’t think he has the vision required to make such a pivot happen.
Further, I do not think JD Vance has the will or skill to pull off a fascist takeover before 2028, nor will he and the other GOP fascists be able to rig the election. Elections are run by the states, and while it may be possible to ensure corrupt elections in some red states by then, those were probably going to land in the GOP column anyway.
For the above reasons, I think the Democratic candidate will be facing off against JD Vance in 2028 and will beat him soundly.
Yes, I think the chance of a revolution that takes out the current political order and is more or less on our side politically has a much higher percentage of happening (5%) if Trump and any successors keep doing what they are doing than the fascists actually winning and taking over (approximately 0%).
Right. Vance is not really beloved of MAGA, so he can’t win a presidential election in the way that Trump did, but he will be too tainted by MAGA to gain new support among “independents,” etc. He’s screwed.
Wait, what?! Trump’s health is already disastrously poor. And even if it were great, I don’t think one can say of any 79-year-old man that it’s “likely” his health will hold up so that he can continue being president. First, at age 79, things can simply fall apart quickly, and second, the presidency is so demanding that it greatly stresses and ages rather young people.
And Vance isnt that kind of republican.
It’s only demanding if you take it seriously and / or do some work. Mouthing off your stream of consciousness rants isn’t too taxing.
Right, I don’t think his heart is really in that kind of thing. He just wants to be president, period.
True, but you can see from his recent schedule that Trump has been traveling quite a bit. Once one’s mobility is compromised and one is failing in other ways, that kind of thing becomes extremely taxing.
I think Trump goes away quietly in 2028 and Vance wins relatively easily.
Because I think the Dems need to pivot away from social issues/woke. And I don’t think they can do it in 2028. I think they will pick some purist candidate that won’t play nationally. Given that choice, Vance doesn’t have to be inspiring, he just has to be “yeah, he’s not so bad.” I think many are as disenchanted with the constant Trump opposition as they are with Trump himself. The Dems won’t be able to resist taking the bait and running a candidate that covertly signals that all of the contention will continue. It’s easier for Vance to avoid that trap than whomever runs for the Dems.
The “relatively easily” here defies political common sense, I think. Trump, who is unarguably charismatic with a cult-like base, didn’t win “relatively easily” in 2024 (he was at least not definitively ahead in the polls against Harris at any point), so how will things be easier for Vance in 2028? How can “relatively easily” make sense when the Democratic candidate is not even known?
Further, if Trump is around until 2028, will he have been going apeshit the whole time as he is now? If so, how will Vance not be tainted by his association with Trump?
So “woke” is fatal to a candidacy, but being part of a criminal fascist grifting administration is not? I’m not trying to be sarcastic, but I am not one of the many these days that thinks that “wokeism” is some sort of fatal political extremism. Indeed, “woke” is the weakest of left-leaning tea compared to the gasoline shots we see the right downing these days.
Harris wasn’t even that in 2024.
Here I agree that having to oppose a moron like Trump and his deplorables is a big part of Trump fatigue. But I also don’t see how that redounds to Vance’s benefit. People have been saying here in P&E that anyone who was in Biden’s cabinet will be tainted in 2028. How could that not apply analogously to Vance? He’s one of Trump’s greatest enablers and acolytes, hardly the one able to suggest, “Let’s just move beyond all this acrimony.”
Vance could in theory avoid it if he has the chance to be president for a couple years and works to unite the country. I also don’t think the Democratic candidate has to be overly “contentious,” especially if Vance does not look good in the polls at the start (which I think is quite likely if Trump is around until the election). All they have to say is, “We know this administration has been a disaster. It’s time for a new chapter.”
You seem to be assuming that people associate the problems of Trump’s making with Trump, And will vote accordingly. That does not appear to be how today’s Republican voter processes information.
It will all go back to the dynamics that were in play in 2024: MAGA base versus Democrats versus “independents,” etc. I also wonder whether the MAGA base will be as strong in 2028 after Trump has shit all over them.
You could be right.
In 1982, Ronald Reagan fell asleep while meeting with the Pope.
He lived for twenty-two more years.
Does this prove anything? No. But it does show that you can live with serious symptoms for a long time.
I just went to this life expectancy web site and put in somewhat pessimistic parameters (mood disorder, high blood pressure, heart disease), no other exercise besides walking a total of one hour a week, bad diet). Life expectancy 87 (eight years from now):
My guess is that he doesn’t have serious heart disease, and even eats vegetables.
Goldwater Republicans thought Nixon was a liberal. But they held their collective noses, voted, and Nixon won in a 1972 landslide. It would also have been a landslide in 1968 except that Wallace was on the ballot.
And Dubya barfed on the Prime Minister of Japan because of atrial fib. But neither of those guys looked like dementia patients let out of “Memory Care” for the day.*
The only reason why Trump has gotten away with it until now is that he has established a baseline of acting nucking futs that for some reason the public and the media accept. Admittedly, it will take a lot beyond that baseline to convince most people that anything is different, but Trump seems to be working hard on achieving just that.
Also, I am not thinking that death is what will take Trump out of the presidency, though it’s a possibility. Rather, it’s incapacitation. Sadly, a lot of people with severe dementia and other cognitive issues are tortured for many years by their condition before they die. So Trump could indeed lead a zombie-like existence for a while.
Yes, but Nixon was actually popular, and Humphrey and McGovern were not (at least, not very). Vance is not, as of today, popular among the American public, including MAGA.
*Though Reagan was probably heavily managed by the end of his term. And Dubya always did seem like an idiot, which he was, but he was an idiot who tried to seem presedential.
The thing is, it’s pretty apparent that Trump has at least as much age-related handicap as Biden did towards the end of his presidency, or Reagan for that matter. It’s also apparent that there is no real succession plan except:
- Trump is incapacitated
- «I guess someone else does something»
- President Vance
Step two is the critical one. Arguably, a proper cognitive assessment could remove Trump NOW, and equally arguably, those around him have made the calculation that they are better off with Trump in place than they would be if they tried to remove Trump.
I think they’re afraid that Trump’s fan base, having been trained so well to ignore reality in favor of preconceived notions and to accept conspiracies, won’t accept Trump’s removal even when it’s obviously time.
I think you are remembering Reagan through rose colored hindsight. By 1985, Reagan didn’t look any better than Trump does now.
I am inclined to think that the effects of age have a tendency to compromise the filters they put on their speech and actions.
Reagan was fundamentally a nicer man than Trump is. About as evil, but nicer about it.
Agree with your post 100%.
I think Biden was old and tired and definitely losing his mojo. He absolutely had no business running for a second term. But I do think that Trump’s condition is qualitatively different. He is barely coherent at times, and it’s worse now than it was during the election.
We’ve had the debate here in P&E, but I don’t think the 25th Amendment will ever, or can ever, practically speaking, be used against a conscious president who is disinclined to resign. And Trump ain’t there yet. But yes, I think Trump fully meets the criteria for removal under that amendment. I also think that the fascists are going to prop him up for as long as such is possible. But it may not be possible for much longer (for so early in his term; towards the very end, probably).
Of course they won’t. These people are idiots.
I think it would be useful for you to listen when our conservative posters like Jay_Z attempt to inform you how they see the political landscape. It might help prevent you from making so many absurdly confident predictions.
I was a teenager and not really into politics at the time. Gemini tells me that Reagan made a public statement on Iran-Contra on November 13, 1986, and I would be inclined to choose that as the point when his troubles, political and perhaps physical, really began. He was at least still pretty coherent at that point, enough to give that speech, at least (no, I didn’t bother to go back and look at footage).
Yes, some of it is that as well.
I think Reagan was at least doing what he thought was right and believed in American political norms and, you know, the constitution. I don’t think Trump even has an understanding of the political basics. He’s a barely sentient animal, impelled by his selfish animal drives.
I do value his opinion. I’d value yours too, if you were to express it on the particulars of what I’ve said.
If you guys want a Dem to win in2028, maybe you should get out and vote. How many Democrats did not bother to vote against Trump? Why would they then vote against Vanilla Maga in 2028?
I mean he is a spineless suck up, sure, but I do not think a real MAGA.
Sure, but not the doddering senile some posters here have made him out to be. In good health for his age, but obviously tired.
Yep, Not gonna happen. Even if trump has a stroke and cant walk or talk, his sycophants on his cabinet will keep him on.
Good point. And vote for a Dem, not some 3rd party loser.