I love you guys too.
I really don’t know. It will take someone with better math skills than me to answer you question. However, what I can say is that you can’t just multiply chances of it occurring by 80, or else anything over 1.25% would mean that you have a 100% chance, which obviously isn’t true.
I think the easiest way (if global averages are valid) is to take the chances of not being raped (1 - 0.6/500) and take that number to the 80th power or whatever. Once you have that number, subtract it from 1 and you get the chances of being raped. Of course, people have been arguing whether women really had a 0.12% chance of being raped in 2001. Some think the number is overreported (false accusations, overinclusive defintions, inclusion of male rape vicitims) and some think it is underreported (not comming forward).
Add me to the survey, and then change the survey.
I’ve known a good half-dozen or so women who have told me whether or not they’ve ever been raped. Of those who’ve told me, one way or another, four of them had been raped.
So those of you who say no woman has ever told you she was raped: how many women have told you she HASN’T been raped? That’s the significant question: if it’s never been a topic of discussion with you, maybe that’s why you don’t know.
I do wish Dworkin and Mary Daly and their ilk would go away. I’ve been fortunate enough, ever since I got out of high school, not to know any feminist who took them seriously: the only folks who seem to take them seriously are people just learning about feminism, and anti-feminists. Daly and Dworking have about as much to do with mainstream feminism as tuna fish has to do with ice cream.
Daniel
I did just a bit of research – and close reading – and I have figured out why the statistic that 17.6% of women have been victims of either rape or attempted rape seems so controversial. It’s because the people at RAINN who trumpet the statistic are dishonest, attention-mongering sleezebags.
Glad we could clear that up.
Oh, right, the details. Well, it turns out that, as dubious as the definition of rape is in the NCVS survey is, RAINN is actually using yet another survey to generate this statistic, the National Violence Against Women Survey that uses data from 1994 and 1995. :eek:
What is worse, RAINN admits on its website that this survey is a worthless pile of steaming crap when it comes to estimating the number of rapes that occur annually.
**
http://www.rainn.org/newsarchive/december98/stat.html
To summarize, the 17.6% comes from an unreliable survey using a dubious definition and data that is eight years old and taken near the 1993 peak in violent crime. No wonder we can’t get the numbers to match up.
I heard that almost every woman has rape fantasies. Wonder if that’s true?
Cartooniverse said words to the effect that “implied consent” or “expressed consent” are recognized by the law. Evidence, unless it is documented, via recordings, video, or transcript, is highly suspect. Without these mediums in effect, the prosecution or the defense can raise a shadow of doubt in favor of the suspect or the victim.
A recent case comes to mind in which two undergraduates went to a party, had sex, the girl then sued the guy, who promptly defended himself and countersued the girl. The case was never adequately evaluated, and was eventually dropped by both parties. No evidence implying consent existed. No evidence implying non-consent existed.
So, unless something like a contract is drawn up, between the two parties, the consent issue will always be suspect. “I did not rape her, she led me to believe she wanted me.” “I did not want him to do that, he raped me” and many more scenarios materialize.
It is well and good that judges realize the concept of implied consent, but unless consent can be verified, a shadow of doubt exists, and these misunderstandings are going to reoccur.
A woman will always be able to say in court that he coerced me into having sex, whether she was a victim or not. A man will always be able to deny such a claim, whether he raped her or not.
And without more evidence, the issue degenerates into a “he said - she said” court case in which no judge can of clear conscience decide.
So I appreciate that legally and medically implied consent exists, but it leaves so many grey areas that it cannot be effective in a court.
I am looking for cites now
Search the pit from about a year or so ago, a thread called “rape sex, wtf?” or something similiar. It was a maddening, million page thread about rape fantasy.
And yes, I was raped as a teenager and I still have rape fantasies as an adult. I’ll tell you that rape FANTASY is dramatically different.
With DNA, rape can be proven beyond all doubt. Such a convicted rapist should be given the choice between castration or death.
Women who don’t report rapes become partly responsible for the suffering of the rapist’s next victim. I have no sympathy at all for any woman (or man) who is that selfish and cowardly.
**For the men posting who say that no woman they know has ever told them she’s been raped-- ** All that proves is that
- you don’t know many women;
- the women you know aren’t comfortable enough with you to tell you something as painful as that;
- the women you know can tell that you wouldn’t be sympathetic or wouldn’t believe them or would question their story;
- you don’t know how to listen to what someone is trying to tell you
- you’re in denial;
- you’re about 14 years old
- you’re lying
Or some combination of the above. [unsolicited advice:] Pull your collective heads out of the sand and open your minds to the possibility that something about your personality prevents women from being completely open and honest with you. Then start working on fixing that sad disability. [/unsolicited advice.]
I know quite a few women who were raped, including my ex-wife. Coincidentally, none of them reported their rapes to the authorities.
OMFG are you for real? Presense of semen doesn’t prove anything. Unprotected consensual sex? Ever heard of it? If this was an actual law, rapists would just use condoms. I really don’t get you. just…huh?
I would’ve lost my dick when i was 13 if presense of DNA was proof of rape :rolleyes:
If anything, I believe that 25% of all women is a low number. Most sexual assaults and abuse are not reported to authorities. Just anecdotally, almost half of all females I’ve known have been raped or sexually molested in some way in their lifetimes, and about one in four males.
Mothchunks.
i’d like to say somethings to you as regards the last paragraph of your post, but i won’t.
- i’m a lady
- this isn’t the right forum.
READ MY POST.
in my case it was almost impossible for me to report the sexual assualt.
as for the rape 6 months earlier, he used a condom, and it would have been a he said, she said, with little chance of ever reaching court, never mind a conviction.
since one of his friends was watching, it wouldn’t even have been that fair, since i doubt he’d support my version of events.
the " i woke up and one of them was holding me down while the other one raped me" version of events.
i’m not stupid, and i’m not a masochist.
if i REALLY believe the police would have helped in either case, i’d have done something, but i know that it wasn’t EVER likely.
we blame ourselves enough as it is, and we don’t need you to make it worse.
I looked here to try and find the truth about this horrible crime.
Not alot around. You’re arguing over meaningless trivia and these groups are pursuing personal motives for gain not the elimination and punishment of the crime.
I took statistics in college and used it in social management research in graduate school.
All the statistics used here is junk, including the DOJ and other government sources cited.
But especially RAINN. For example if 80% are “white”, whatever that means, with a life-time experience of 17.7% how can the population experience be 17.6% when the minorities they listed are from 18.8% to 34.1% except for the poor Asian/Pacific islanders with 6.8%. That means the Asian Pacific Islanders would have to make up more than the 20% of the total victims to get the final 17.6%. And might I add more than 100% of all Asian/Pacific Islanders in this country would have to be raped. Gentlemen lock up your mothers, wives and daughters from Asia and the Pacific.
Statistics are not facts and are being used by some disreputable people to gain power, influence, fame and money instead of fighting the worst terrorist crime in this country, let alone the world. Murder is an horrific, vile, crime but real rape is murder for a lifetime.
Likewise don’t any of you see that the problem is alcohol use, the failure to pursue predators and the social/legal permission for sexual conduct especially by young men in our society with and upon young girls and women of any age they can exploit.
No one takes this seriously, our statist society should turn back to the male members of the family the rightful power to pursue and punish the real rapist, those that take the opportunity of a random or casual meeting of a women to expose and/or attempt or succeed in penetrating them sexually. I don’t care if its only 1/10% lifetime experience, that’s still 150,000 women. And some of you people out there know who these guys are. Get these guys when they do there first sexual assault and do away with them. And while we’re at it get the pimps, prostitutes and women that flash at public gatherings to return civil relations among men and women to the main stream of society. These are all dangerous behaviors that put extreme pressure on our society’s weakest men and children and result in their personal destruction and the violation of innocents.
But what can I expect when none of you were outraged when some people in this country (25% of those eligible to vote, hey that’s your 1 in 4) elected (twice) a man President and made up excuses for that violent sexual predator that raped several women he didn’t know because he agrees with your politics.
Its not 1 in 4 raped never will be and thank God doesn’t make the victim wrong, but any is too many and its elimination should be our people’s first priority.
Everyone, meet Justhink’s sister. 
Sometimes it’s not reported because of this whole “blame the victim” mentality, some women are threatened, sometimes it’s someone they know, etc.
Mothchunks, I don’t think YOU should be dictating to women how they should report rape.
Although I do think anyone who knowingly makes a false accusation is scum.
Brother, I think. Just a hunch.
rsarcher, I’m curious – if a rape victim doesn’t have any male relatives, who, in your opinion, should have the responsibility of punishing the rapist? And what happens if the rapist is one of the victim’s male relatives?
Allow me to hijack this thread.
Someone on another message board i post at says he is being falsely accused of rape. What he says happened is this.
He was at a friends house last week, and they have a 16 year old daughter who is attracted to him. She basically came out & asked him to fuck her, and he said no because she is 16 & the daughter of his friend. She then went in the house & told her parents he tried to rape her.
OK, i know its probably sexist, but i believe the man over the woman in this instance because attempted rape is one of those crimes where no evidence is really necessary to show the crime happened, and people are more likely to believe the woman than the man.
A cop friend on the board told him to go to the police, and calmly tell his side of the story in the hopes that she would break under interrogation (if the accusation is true, that she is lying). I suggested he take out a restraining order against her after that.
DOes anyone who has been through a situation like this have any other advice on what he can do? What can be done to get to the truth?
DNA does not prove that rape occurred. More evidence is needed. For example, semen found in a uterous shows that intercourse occurred. Bruises on the victim show that the advance was probably unwanted. Skin found underneath the fingernails shows that the victim was probably struggling. DNA identifies who’s skin, and who’s semen.
The methods of collecting evidence are getting better, but the rape case still depends on lawyers convincing a judge that the victim was raped or that the accused is innocent. There is yet to be found a conclusive “smoking gun” detailing what happened.
I am still looking for links people, but I have a cold now, and I am probably going to bed soon. I am going to get a lawyer friend of mine to look here maybe she can provide more links quicker than I.
Just wanted to point out that it’s much more helpful to discuss the manipulation of or errors within statistics than to accuse women who come forward about rape of lying–which is what the SECOND post in the thread is about. :rolleyes:
I have to admit that I’ve seen this conversation play out before, when the health office at my university put posters up using the 1-in-4 statistic. And I heard countless male friends state the things MSU 1978 and TBone2 have said. I don’t want to come across as an extremist and tell y’all you’re wrong, but I know those guys were. I hope the women you know are luckier than that.
Also, while women feeling they have been coerced into sex may not match your definitions of “rape,” maybe it should at least serve to give you pause and to suggest that everyone–men and women–give more consideration to those we’re being intimate with. Particularly if its your first go at it together. Is pausing a moment to look in your lover’s eyes and ask, “Is this what you really want?” so unsexy?
And, thanks, Mothchunks. Boy, everything in your post was just great. How does DNA prove consent or lack thereof? And how great does it make you feel to place that bucket of blame at the feet of rape victims?
Why is it that semen in the uteris is always such hard evidence for courts? A woman can take spill-over semen and push it into herself with her fingers without the man’s knowledge and then strangle herself to make it look forced. Just a reminder that things aren’t always as they seem. 