I live in Missouri, and I have a nagging fear that the Senate election is going to be closer than the polls say, and that Akin may even win. I suspect that people are sheepish about telling pollsters they support Akin, but that in the privacy of the voting booth they’ll still select him.
I hope I’m wrong, because not only will it put a terrible piece of ---- in the U.S. Senate, it will make my state a laughingstock (or worse) for much of the rest of the country. I will seriously have to consider moving across the border to Iowa if that happens.
You & me both! Fellow Missourian here, and I’m just in shock that this idiot is doing this well. However, I’m closer to Kansas than to Iowa, so I think I’ll just be staying put.
Add me to the list (except that I’m closer to Illinois.) Akin is my Congressman, and I’ve been saying all along he could still win, if for no other reason than when the national Republicans made him an outcast, they also made him the plucky underdog.
I seem to recall there’s already a name for this effect (telling everyone you’re voting for the nice guy because you’re embarrassed to say you actually voted for the rat bastard), and it might have had something to do with the election of a black candidate - but I’m blanking on everything else.
OH! It’s called the Bradley effect - I knew it was something with a B. And it’s specifically about racial voting patterns in polls where a white candidate faces off with a non-white candidate, so not really quite what you’re talking about. Still an interesting read, though.
Yeah, I was thinking of the “Bradley Effect” (sometimes called the “Wilder Effect” after Douglas Wilder in Virginia) when I coined this (if in fact I did coin it before someone else out there did). It’s a little different due to the lack of a racial dimension, and thus deserving of its own name, but definitely in the same general category.
As a Missourian I long ago came to the conclusion that my state has becoming North Arkansas rather than South Iowa. And I think it’s extremely likely that Akin will win, polls be damned.
The only saving grace for McCaskill may be that Jay Nixon is still popular and should win by a healthy margin. So maybe folks that are already splitting a Romney/Nixon ticket won’t feel as bad about throwing another Dem a vote.
This brings to mind the old saw about Iowa ceding its southern two tiers of counties to Missouri. As the story goes, it would raise the literacy rate in both states.
King is one of the only members of the House who might actually be a little worse than Akin; however, his district no longer extends to the Missouri border, and he may well lose this year facing a tough challenge in a redrawn district against Christie Vilsack, the popular wife of the former governor and current AgSec. And in any case the area of southern Iowa I’d be moving to was never in King’s district and is represented by Democrat Dave Loebsack, who is expected to win reelection.
Iowa’s senators include the contemptible Chuck “#AssumeDeerDead” Grassley, but also the progressive stalwart Tom Harkin. Good enough for me!
In fairness to southern Iowa, it’s NW Iowa, with all its crazy Calvinists who loathe the poor and thus any effort to aid them, that is ultra-right wing (and King no longer has that area in his district, which is why I think he could lose). Southern Iowa is fairly moderate.
Amen. My state actually did me proud last night (except the sad but unsurprising anti-Obamacare vote). Big win for Claire and solid Dem wins for almost all of the state-wide offices.