I’m looking for takers for a scaled-down version of my landslide bet:
Kerry wins popular vote by >5% = I win
Bush wins popular vote by >5% = you win
Popular vote margin is <5% = wash
Change in nominee of either party = wash
Even I wouldn’t take that one RT.
This sucker is going to be close but I’m still backing Kerry to win the EC narrowly. I think GWB is under too much pressure not to lose some of the swing states.
Another thing you guys have to think about is turnout. Lots of Republicans, though still supportive of Bush, aren’t exactly what you would call hot for the guy and grudgingly recognize that, in truth, he really really is a huge fuck-up (I personally consider him our worst president ever). Democrats, on the other hand, are absolutely insane to get rid of him. I have never in my life seen Democrats as united and passionate as they are today. Look for record turnouts among Democrats.
And, Shodan, be sure to put your money where your mouth is. I’d hate to see you miss out on being financially rewarded for having such a perceptive analytical mind.
Not necessarily. As long as Bush gives the average voter the impression that there is a plan in place to handle the transition, he can combat the idea that Iraq is an exitless quagmire. As long as Bush comes up with something more plausible than Kerry’s dropping it on the UN’s doorstep, ringing the doorbell, and running, Bush can make this work to his advantage.
I think the Democrats have been relying on the “net job loss” sound bite pretty heavily. Thus once the job market picks up, they have to come up with something new about the economy that is bad, and not sound like whiners who are going to complain no matter how well things are going. If they can’t manage that perception, it is going to make them appear out of touch with the average undecided voter. “What the heck are they talking about? I got a job. So did my brother-in-law. Must be Bush who did it.”
In other words, Bush is working to take the wind out of the Democratic sails on both their key issues. Iraq? “We are handling that. Here is our plan.” The economy? “It’s getting better because of our tax cuts. Don’t let Kerry screw it up.”
Whether or not you believe the tax cuts caused the recovery, or whether or not Bush’s plan for Iraq is all that much better than Kerry’s, is almost beside the point. Kerry has been talking both issues down; Bush is going to talk both issues up. Politics as usual.
Actually, it may be a reason Bush pushes for drilling in ANWAR again. He can say, “See? I told you so.”
True. I don’t know what the hell I was talking about. I should have said “Bush-Gore”.
Although I think the surge to Reagan happened for reasons other than just “he is the challenger”. Same for Bush-Dukakis, where Bush Sr. was behind until the GOP convention, or Clinton-Bush, which was closer than a lot of polls predicted. Or Carter-Ford, for that matter. Ford lost because of his Poland remark, and it was still a close election.
Regards,
Shodan
Bush’s approval rating down to 41% in new poll.
Those better be some damned fine speeches George gives in the next couple of weeks.
Oops, I see Squink posted the poll numbers first. :o
Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Bush’s numbers sink further after the last SOTU address? The one about banning gay marriage and going to Mars?
I highly doubt he’s going to get much, if any, bounce from his next few speeches. For one thing, you can’t spin gold out of straw: there’s no getting around the fact that Iraq is a serious mess and that it’s not likely to get better once we “hand it over” (even as we keep 100,000+ troops stationed there). More than that, I think people are wise to the fact that Bush only offers to address the nation when he’s in trouble: his recent public pronouncements have a decided flavor of ass-covering, and he’s no longer able to set the terms of the debate as he once was.
Don’t forget that once we “hand it over” we can start shovelling blame for whatever happens onto the doorstep of the UN. I don’t think that a four month spin-blitz will be enough to convince many Americans that everything was fine in Iraq until those incompetents at the UN messed it up, but then I was unpleasantly surprised at the percentage of the populace that arrived in Baghdad “pre-fooled” about the reasons for war.
Which is, of course, a misrepresentation of Kerry’s views on Iraq.
Will people really believe that? We allegedly had a plan the day we first bombed Baghdad. It’s over a year later, and we’re just coming up with a plan now? Won’t that just serve to highlight the gross incompetence of the Bush administration’s invasion of Iraq? Just because Bush says we’re handling Iraq, doesn’t mean people will believe it. With approval ratings as low as his, people aren’t going to believe something just because he says it.
Again: Will anyone believe it? Only 23% of Americans believe the economy is getting better. And 60% are concerned that they, or someone in their household, will lose their job within the next year. Those are huge numbers for Bush to overcome, and while there are signs that the economy is recovering, I don’t think it will be enough to convince millions of Americans that Bush’s plan for the economy is working. As for the tax cuts, they’ve had more than enough time to deliver their alleged benefits, but all we have is an economy slowly crawling upward. Indeed, a majority of Americans believe they have had no effect or a negative effect on the economy.
Here is one way for Bush to regain the lead. It’s simple really:
Replace Rumsfeld with Rudolph Giuliani as Secretary of Defense.
Giuliani already has a reputation of cleaning up a quasi-military force at the same time lowering crime. To many people in the nation, the son of a Mafioso is the quitessential law-and-order man.
And don’t you think that every terrorist in the world will quiver when the one who was mayor of NYC on 9/11 has the tools to enact ultimate revenge?
And Shodan, bush is going to the UN.
www.pollingreport.com is a good place to get poll results, as the site compiles polls from various sources.
For example, this gives you a compilation of Bush’s job rating from FoxNews, CNN, Gallup, Zogby, CBS, Newsweek, etc.
Warning for Republicans: It’s pretty ugly. :eek:
More CBS polling data is in, and it’s not looking good. Only twenty-four percent of Americans believe Bush has a clear plan for the planned 6/30 power handover. Sixty percent believe the war was not worth the costs. It’s going to take more than a speech for Bush to overcome these numbers. The big one is this: fifty percent believe our involvement in Iraq was a mistake.
The torture scandal will only continue to hurt Bush. Increasing numbers of Americans believe the Pentagon tried to cover up the scandal, with a majority now believing that to be the case. The number who believe higher-level officials deserve blame is rising (bonus poll fact: among veterans, this number is fifty-seven percent), and Rumsfeld’s approval is now six points lower than his disapproval.
Besides gaining independent voters, Kerry is stealing votes from Bush. Kerry’s support from Democrats is steady, and his support from both independents and Republicans (11%) is rising. Bush, however, has the opposite problem. He’s losing Republican and independent votes, but his Democratic support remains constant. In fact, both Bush and Kerry have equal support from the opposing party.
Then, of course, there’s the election numbers. Bush/Kerry is 41/49. Bush/Kerry/Nader is 41/47/5. The big question: will a respected national poll deliver a sub-40 number for Bush’s approval or re-elect number? When the numbers are that low, it’s hard for even the most optimistic Bush supporter to overlook the polls. Full poll data is here.
Can Bush recover? Sure. But it’s going to be tough. The numbers are clearly against him at this point, and they’re only continuing to decline. Personally, I think speculation this far out isn’t worth much, but I’m more than willing to give it a shot.