That depends on whether the hardcore Republican base (the people who turn out for primaries) cling to the “we wuz robbed!” mantra. Even if Moore uncharacteristically takes “no” for an answer and goes away, the other hardcore Republican base mantra (“he lost because he wasn’t conservative enough”) might produce an equally deplorable wingnut.
If you offered me an even money bet on Jones’s opponent in 2020 right now I would absolutely, unhesitatingly take it. I’ll give you two to one, in fact.
Alabama is a deep, deep red state that damn near elected a religious extremist and white supremacist with a history of molesting teenaged girls. That is literally what it took for a Republican to NOT be elected. A Republican who appears moderately sane will defeat Jones by 20 points, at least.
I don’t think it does vary, or at least not in the way you think it does. Once a state holds an election for a replacement Senator whether it’s a special election or the next regularly scheduled election, that person serves until the normal expiration of that seat’s term. What varies is when they hold that election & what happens in the meantime. 36 states appoint a temporary Senator, then have a normal election for that seat at the next general election date. So in those states the temporary Senator could serve up to almost 2 years, if the vacancy occurred right after a general election. 14 states hold a special election, generally within 3-5 months of the seat becoming vacant. In some of those 14 the governor can appoint a temporary Senator, in others he can’t. Cite. But there’s no situation where there’s a special election for a Senator who only serves until the next general election, not the end of the term.
I’d have to say it’s a real longshot. Nate Silver made what seem to me reasonable back-of-the-envelope approximations: Alabama at baseline has a 30 point baked in GOP advantage. They lost 10 points because swing voters are very pro-Democrat right now, 10 points because Moore is an extremist loony, and 10 points because Moore is a child molester. So unless the Republicans nominate Moore again, they should win by 10 even with a Bannonite candidate.
My question: Is it likely that Moore will run again?
The only way Jones can win in 2020, though I was wrong about him winning at all so what do I know, is if the schism within the GOP widens to a full on split and the Roy Moore/Bannon camp forms their own party and siphons off enough votes. If that happens, combined with a competent and noncontroversial record for the next three years as well as the general demographic slide towards Dems… he might pull off a re-election.
But that’s partly because there is rarely a good Democratic candidate in Alabama. Doug Jones is the strongest Democratic candidate we’ve had for any elected office in a long time. The moment when Alabama Democrats got excited about the Senate race was not when Moore won the primary, but when Jones announced he’s running.
It would be very unlikely that he would get past the primary again.
Yeah, Moore is to the Alabama GOP what Hillary Clinton is to the DNC. You just don’t lose Alabama if you’re an R - you just don’t. Moore’s finished. He might be able to win a local race, but it’s hard to recover from these kinds of allegations -especially when you’re 70.
Jones will probably lose to a more moderate Republican. The bigger question I have now is, will that Republican be Jeff Sessions?
One strategy that might work for Jones is to be a Never Trump hardcore Blue Dog Democrat. I don’t know how he carves out that territory, but perhaps there might be an opportunity or two when he can cross party lines and vote Republican on a key measure. If he can do that and not a) enrage the rest of the Democratic party and b) fight Trumpism and Moore-ism, then he has a shot. But it’s still a long shot.
Long shot. Doug Jones was/is the Democratic version of Scott Brown taking down Martha Coakley in Massachusetts. He doesn’t have longterm staying viability, unless Trump is still POTUS in 2020 and has approval ratings in the single digits.
Sure, but those calculations ignored the incumbency effect (because obviously neither candidate was the incumbent). Which is maybe 5 points or so?
Jones is still a dog regardless, but it helps.
That still would not do it. Alabama leans way red no matter who is President. It’s as close to a sure thing as I can imagine under normal circumstances.
As indicated above, the only hope Jones would have in 2020 is either a major scandal hitting the GOP nominee as happened this year or a party split of some kind. I think the GOP has learned it’s lesson on both, so it’s unlikely.
The lesson for the Dems is still clear, though: put up a qualified candidate even in races that you don’t have a chance of winning. Sometimes bad things happen to sure winners, and you want to be competitive when they do.
The lesson for the GOP is also clear, unfortunately: more voter suppression. Now that key sections of the Voting Rights Act have been thrown out, I’m afraid you ain’t seen nothing yet.
There is a nonzero chance of him winning re-election, and there are things he can do to increase that nonzero chance.
However, his chances are so low even with him doing those things that the payoff isn’t worth it. He should spend the three years that he has legislating as he thinks best, rather than sacrificing some of how he wants to legislate for a very small chance of tripling his time in office.
Totally, and those are good odds. They’re not as good as the odds I would’ve offered you for Jones’s opponent if you’d asked me back in August, though :).
A few things to remember:
-He ran a very smart, mostly positive campaign (at least that’s what I hear).
-He worked very well with NAACP and other progressive orgs on GOTV drives.
-He’s a goddamned Klan-prosecuting hero.
Scott Brown was not, IIRC, a particularly interesting figure. Jones is, so far as I can tell so far, pretty great.
For him to win again, either the Alabama white supremacist party will have to offer another wingnut, or else the South will have to start peeling away from the Republican party in general. Which can happen: their lock on the South isn’t etched in stone, isn’t a fact of nature, is in fact only a few decades old.
I’m not betting, but I’m not counting Jones out.
Agreed. This strategy–pretending to be a member of the opposite party in hopes the opposite party will like you better than they like their own candidate–isn’t famous for its success. Be true to yourself, inspire through your convictions, and either folks will or won’t follow; but don’t try to be what you’re not.
“If a voter has a choice between a Republican and a Democrat who acts like a Republican, he’ll vote for the Republican every time.” --Harry S. Truman
who also said
“Republicans approve of the American farmer, but they are willing to help him go broke. They stand four-square for the American home — but not for housing. They are strong for labor — but they are stronger for restricting labor’s rights. They favor minimum wage — the smaller the minimum wage the better. They endorse educational opportunity for all — but they won’t spend money for teachers or for schools. They think modern medical care and hospitals are fine — for people who can afford them. They consider electrical power a great blessing — but only when the private power companies get their rake-off. They think American standard of living is a fine thing — so long as it doesn’t spread to all the people. And they admire of Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.”
If he and the RNC are dumb enough to put him back up as the party rep then shame on them. I am a life long republican and I’ve never been so ashamed of my party and the state of Alabama. (I’m not in AL) While no direct evidence was truly put forth against Moore the preponderance of circumstantial evidence was such that everyone should have been saying “When there’s smoke there’s fire” yet too many were more concerned with maintaining the hold on the senate. I get this concern but putting a pervert in the senate was just plain disgusting to me.
Doug Jones is pro-choice. Is there another pro-choice statewide elected official in Alabama?
Doug Jones will be too busy running as Kirsten Gillibrand’s VP to also run for senate.
He has a much easier path to reelection and he just has to look at the last democrat to win a senate seat in Alabama who is still in the senate, his colleague senator Richard Shelby. Shelby was a democrat when he won election then he switched parties and he’s still in office.
I could see Jones following in Shelby’s (who already voted for Jones ) footsteps especially if he tacks a bit towards Shelby’s positions and they work well together. He switches and Shelby endorses and I think he’d win a second term as long as his first term isn’t a disaster. Not what some people want to hear but at least they’d be electing a moderate republican.
Shelby was elected as a conservative Democrat in an era when the parties were far less polarized than they are now. He could credibly claim that he was switching parties because the Republican party more accurately reflected his ideology, and, since they’d not-so-coincidentally just gained a majority in the Senate, the switch was also a way of enhancing his own power and influence. Neither of these things is likely to be true for Jones, who ran as a mainstream Democrat, and who would be switching to a party likely to lose power if he did so before the 2020 elections. Most of the people who voted for him this time around would be rightfully pissed off, while Republicans would have no reason to like or trust him, and would probably back a different candidate in the primary.