I’ve always thought this was an outlier as elections go. It was a referendum on Moore and his alleged conduct. I think the odds are Jones won’t win a full term.
What do you think?
Way too early to tell. Jones will have the power of incumbency, but it’s not likely the national ticket will be doing anything in Alabama.
Jones could win if there’s a split on the right if Moore runs 3rd Party. Or, you could end up with one of those races with a Republican and a Libertarian candidate.
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I think the odds favor Jones’ challenger. I think most political professionals would agree.
So what should Jones do? I dunno. He could try adjusting his voting record, but that’s a mug’s game. He could build a record that would let him step into a mayorship, a judgeship, or a lobbyistship.
Or he cut loose and find a populist cause to latch on to. I recommend a campaign against robocalls, spam, and elder abusive ripoffs.
I suspect that like Scott Brown, Jones will lose the next time he runs. I don’t think the power of incumbency can beat the massive partisan and ideological gulf between him and his state. All the Republicans have to do is the nominate a half-way normal candidate and while that isn’t guaranteed, I suspect they will figure it out next time round after this fiasco.
BTW what are the rules for the duration of the term of the winner of a special election. I believe the general rule is that they finish the term of the senator they have replaced but is that true in all states with special elections ?
Some of us are hoping that by 2020 there will be a massive groundswell of opposition to Trump and the crazy Republicans controlling Congress. If so Jones could be reelected.
It is at this time for federal offices but Senators are special. You do not reset the general election calendar due to a substitution partway through the term. But Senate seats, in particular, are distributed by “classes” of (currently) 34/33/33 and each seat belongs specifically to one of the classes, so IIRC there will have to be yet another election in 2018 for someone to finish the 6-year term.
You have a point there…I think I remember hearing on a newscast something about there being another election for that seat in 2018…although I’ve been to a couple of political sites that have the next election there in 2020…so I’m unclear as to when Senator-Elect Jones will be up for reelection.
So Jones might serve for only a year?
Still, the fact that we are having this conversation is hilarious. And, who knows? What if Jones succeeds in promoting Democratic ideals in Alabama. “Hell yes, we are going to tax the rich! And we will use the money to fix the roads. Repair the plumbing. Update the electricity. Modernize the cell phone and internet reception.” Stop there. Just do that much. Talk about more for the next term.
It’s in 2020. Jeff Sessions was elected to a six year term in 2014, and Jones is filling the remainder of that.
Ah, that would be good. It does vary per state.
What if Moore runs again in 2020? Will we see a repeat?
I don’t see him making it through another primary.
What Democrat would run against him?
The Republican primary and Roy Moore. Sure, there might be a Democratic primary as well, but that wasn’t the question about “What if Roy Moore runs again in 2020?”
Never mind, you said Moore, not Jones. Yes, he’s done for. I hope.
Jones will have a rough row to hoe, no doubt, but the power of incumbency - though less than it was - is real.
In addition, if the national political environment remains favorable with the generic congressional ballot being +10 D and Trump’s still 20 points underwater in his favorability rating Jones’ll be operating in as friendly an environment as I can imagine a D in Alabama can. So he’ll again have a puncher’s chance. I’ll take it and I bet he will as well.
But it seems that “normal” Republicans (even Trump “normal”) typically win 2-1 in Alabama. I’m just not seeing a win for Jones come 2020 unless some really unforeseeable events happen.
It’s hard to tell with “in the moment” winners like Jones. Look what happened to Carol Moseley Braun - elected to the Senate from Illinois in 1992 mainly on the strength of “I’m not the one who voted for Clarence Thomas in spite of what Anita Hill said,” then voted out six years later. (I heard that there was quite a bit of “soft money” on Jones’s side - if that’s true, then, ironically, you can thank Clarence Thomas for that, as he was one of the deciding votes in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.)
On the other hand, if there’s a progressive push in 2020 - and this election may be the spark it needs to ignite it for 2018 - then all Democrats are in play. Of course, if Jones is a “mainstream” Democrat, there’s also the (slim) chance that he could be primaried out.
Probably not…certainly the odds wouldn’t favor it. However, there were a lot of scare tactics being used on the Republican side about all of the horrible things that would happen if Jones won. When the majority of them don’t come to pass, it’s possible, I suppose, that some people will stop to think about that and really evaluate how the man has done in his limited time.
The other thing is, this has got to have tainted the Republicans in the minds of the voters in Alabama. Certainly, it seems to have breathed new life into the non-Republican population.