Will Italian P.M. Berlusconi refuses to resign

[BrainGlutton]

Ever since his center-right coalition was trounced in regional elections this month, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has been under pressure from his coalition partners to resign. In this case, “resign” just means reorganize – that is, hand in his resignation to the president, who would then re-appoint him and give him a chnace to form a new government. It’s a tradition in modern Italian politics, when a government faces a political crisis between national elections. But, to the consternation of all and sundry, Berlusconi, following a meeting with the president, has announced he will not resign – apparently unprecedented for a P.M. in his situation. The opposition is calling this “a crisis that is being transformed into an indecent farce.” http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/ITALY_BERLUSCONI?SITE=FLPET&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT; http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/story.jsp?story=630846

Perhaps some EuroDopers who are up-to-date on Italian politics can fill us in here: What’s this “crisis” all about? And what’s the likely outcome? Will Berlusconi be forced out entirely? Will it precipitate new elections?

[BrainGlutton]

Errmm . . . kinda flubbed the thread title, from repeated and insufficiently careful editing . . . but you get the gist . . .

[BrainGlutton]

To put this in context – according to the Wikipedia article on the Politics of Italy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Italy), at present the most important political alliances in Italy are:

1. The “House of Freedoms,” a right-center coalition which includes Berlusconi’s pet Forza Italia party, as well as the Union of Christian and Center Democrats, the regionalist Northern League, and the crypto-fascist (honestly!) National Alliance, among others; and

2. The Union (or “Olive Tree”), a center-left association including the Communists (various), Italian Democratic Socialists, Popular Alliance and Green Federation, among others.

[BrainGlutton]

Update: Berlusconi is to address Parliament Wednesday preceding a confidence vote on Thursday. It’s just possible he might lose it – public support in him is certainly waning. From http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0420/p01s03-woeu.html:

When Mr. Berlusconi - with his personal rags to riches success story - won a landslide election victory here in 2001, he promised Italy an “economic miracle.”

But rising prices and a stagnant economy have left thousands of Italians struggling to make ends meet. The Italian economy has not fully recovered from the post 9/11 global slowdown. Since 2001, according to a World Economic Forum survey, Italy, the world’s fifth-largest economy, has fallen 26 places to 47th in the list of the worlds’ most competitive countries. Botswana is placed at number 45.

Italian public debt has continued to grow under Berlusconi, raising warnings from European Union officials that it is well above the agreed barrier of 3 percent of GDP. “We are seeing middle class families whose checks are bouncing, who are having their electricity and telephone lines cut off because they cannot pay the bills,” says Guerino di Tora, Rome director of Italy’s largest charity, Caritas. “It’s a new kind of poverty. These people are not starving. But they have lost the quality of life they used to know.”

According to a Demos poll, for the first time since World War II, almost 60 percent of Italians believe their children will be worse off economically than they are. The government statistics office, ISTAT, reported in 2004 that 18.5 percent of Italian families - almost 10 million people - are facing poverty.

For those no longer able to afford a meal out, recent news that their prime minister earned $17 million from his media empire last year just rubbed salt into their wounds.

The public made their discontent known on April 2 when they swung in favor of the opposition left in 11 of the 13 regions up for reelection. The defeat - described by Italian media as a “massacre” - was a strong signal that, after 11 years in politics, the Berlusconi era may be drawing to a close.

[Sam_Stone]

@BrainGlutton

Alliance, among others; and

2. The Union (or “Olive Tree”), a center-left association including the Communists (various), Italian Democratic Socialists, Popular Alliance and Green Federation, among others.

How do Communists, Socialists, and Greens fit the definition of ‘center left’?

[ur8it]

@BrainGlutton

Update: Berlusconi is to address Parliament Wednesday preceding a confidence vote on Thursday. It’s just possible he might lose it – public support in him is certainly waning. From http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0420/p01s03-woeu.html:

Berlusconi doesnt seem the type to resign, he’s very arrogant and manipulative, I’m sure he has a Plan B on his sleeve.

Are you in Italy? I remember seeing a HUGE billboard picture of his face, recently, and pardon me while I LOL!!! but you’d swear he had the face of a 21 year old! I guess when you control the media, you airbrush all you like and get away with it!!! hahaha… anyway, it made my day driving by it!

ciao!

[BrainGlutton]

@Sam Stone

How do Communists, Socialists, and Greens fit the definition of ‘center left’?

Strangely enough, Sam, by European standards they do. (“Hard left” would be the Red Brigade, if it even exists any more.) Especially when you consider the other members of the Olive Tree coalition (remember, I said “among others”): The Daisy-Democracy is Freedom Party (honestly!), the Italy of Values – List de Pietro, the Democrats of the Left, the European Republican Movement, and the Popular Alliance – UDEUR. For more info, see the Wikipedia article linked above, which links to a page on each and every party.

[BrainGlutton]

@ur8it

Are you in Italy? I remember seeing a HUGE billboard picture of his face, recently, and pardon me while I LOL!!!

:rolleyes: I appreciate without envy.

[Arwin]

@BrainGlutton

Perhaps some EuroDopers who are up-to-date on Italian politics can fill us in here: What’s this “crisis” all about? And what’s the likely outcome? Will Berlusconi be forced out entirely? Will it precipitate new elections?

One party in Berlusconi’s coalition government has been watching the polls and concluded that remaining part of the government would mean they would lose votes in the next election. This is understandable, votes in favor of the government party are dropping. So they stepped out, withdrawing their ministers. However, they have already agreed to continue backing the coalition and thus Berlusconi from parliament, they just do not want to be part of the government, hoping they will lose fewer votes that way and maybe even gain some.

This means that Berlusconi can simply create a new team and continue being prime-minister, for the time being.

Berlusconi is a terrible man, his sole benefit for Italy, if any, is that he has managed to keep a sort of stable government for the longest period since the second world war: not only did he get reelected after a full term (amazing, already practically unprecedented) but he’s looking to make it to almost two terms! Wow.

Italian politics are weird. Seriously.

[BrainGlutton]

@Arwin

This means that Berlusconi can simply create a new team and continue being prime-minister, for the time being.

Looks like he’s finally worked out the obvious and decided to resign (on the assumption that he will be immediately re-appointed by the president, as is customary): http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/04/20/italy.berlusconi/index.html

I don’t suppose there’s any chance President Ciampi might decide to throw Italy for a loop and appoint a new P.M.?

[BrainGlutton]

@Arwin

Italian politics are weird. Seriously.

Why is that, I wonder? I mean, it’s not any weirder a national culture than any other in Europe – is it? I know Italy is a young country in political terms, it has only existed as a nation-state since the 19th Century – but so has Germany, and its government and politics seem to work pretty well nowadays.

[Captain_Amazing]

Traditionally, Italy had been politically unstable because it’s a really diverse country, and (until 1993) used proportional representation entirely. That led to no party ever able to have a majority, and created really shaky coalitions. Or, as this site puts it:

http://electionresources.org/it/#BACKGROUND

The Italian proportional representation system produced highly fragmented legislatures, and short-lived, unstable coalition governments: from 1945 to 1993 there were a total of fifty-two governments, which on average lasted less than a year in office. In fact, the April 5, 1992 legislative elections - the last held under the PR system - produced a legislature in which no single party, or any combination of two parties could command an absolute majority of seats in either house of Parliament. This situation brought about a major governmental crisis, which culminated with the resignation of the President of the Republic, as it became increasingly difficult for him to find a candidate for the presidency of the Council of Ministers (as the post of prime minister is called in Italy) that could secure majority support in Parliament. Eventually, a new coalition government was formed, more than two months after the election had taken place, and after the election of a new president, which entailed further negotiations among the sixteen parties represented in the Italian legislature. However, the new government proved to be as shaky as its predecessors, and it lasted just ten months in office.

[BrainGlutton]

@Captain Amazing

Traditionally, Italy had been politically unstable because it’s a really diverse country, and (until 1993) used proportional representation entirely. That led to no party ever able to have a majority, and created really shaky coalitions. Or, as this site puts it:

http://electionresources.org/it/#BACKGROUND

Which demonstrates the folly of combining a PR system with a parliamentary system. It might work better in an American-style separation-of-powers system where the legislature is not responsible for “forming a government” (as I’ve often commented in this forum). OTOH, most countries in Europe have parliamentary systems combined with some form of PR, but none is as politically unstable as Italy. What makes Italy different?