Ford wasn’t all that popular in the GOP in 76, and now, just like then, it’s tough not to run your incumbent. Nixon was incredibly unpopular following Watergate. Ford tried to mitigate the pardon fallout by saying Nixon was admitting guilt by accepting the pardon. That didn’t go over too well, a lot of people on both sides thought criminal charges should be pursued, if only to gain some closure. If Trump ends up in the same situation there may still be a strong vocal group that believes it’s a fake impeachment by a fake senate based on fake news and Pence won’t suffer that much for pardoning him. I don’t think there’s much chance Pence would be re-elected anyway assuming the Democrats can field a credible opponent, which unfortunately is not any kind of guarantee.
All in all, Trump may not have any leverage with Pence to make a deal on the pardon before hand. It’s likely to depend on the severity of the charges and the level of evidence. If there is actual collusion directly tied to Trump then Pence may abandon him to maintain his own reputation. I think any impeachment is not likely to be based on such solid cause and that leaves Pence plenty of room to negotiate with the party and pardon Trump to end the matter.
No, he would not. Trump is not likely to live for even ten years if he was impeached tomorrow. Nixon had a lifetime of service to the Republican Party and won a landslide election in 1972. Trump lost the popular vote and squeaked an electoral college win with less than the attendance at a major college football game.
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I’m starting to wonder if Pence maybe deepthroating; providing the leaks occurring daily, and gathering enough for the final smoking gun to end the charade. Largely setting Trump up to be his own fall-guy, and as such I don’t expect a pardon as much as a kick in the guts.
One thing about Hatch is that it’s practically a certainty he wouldn’t run for POTUS in 2020 – he’s 83 years old now, right? Both Pence and Ryan are young enough that when standing there with a hand on the Bible, they’d be already thinking about their 2020 campaign.
How long does Trump have to survive as POTUS before his successor could run in 2024 (assuming of course that he was reelected in 2020)? I have a vague recollection from the Ford presidency that if the term you fill is less than half done when you are sworn in, it counts as a full term for the “no more than 2 terms” business, but if less than that, it doesn’t count as a term. Am I right?
I’m not sure exactly when the two-year clock starts, but to put a round date on it, lets say that if Pence waited to take over until Feb 1, 2018, he could potentially serve as President until 1/20/2029 (if I’m doing the math right).
It’s not when you’re “sworn in”; it’s when you “become President.” Two different things. Pence would become President the moment the Senate trial ended in a conviction, regardless of when he actually takes the oath of office. The reason the oath is important is, even though someone is President, he can’t, for lack of a better way of putting it, “do anything Presidential” until after he takes the oath.
Curiously, Nixon was likely not provably guilty of anything. Well, maybe obstruction. But it would have been very difficult to prove that even knew about the burglary beforehand. What did him in was the coverup. Anyway, what he did was irritate the party to the point they were about to impeach him. And even if they had, it is not obvious he would have been convicted. This is different; I do believe T is guilty of serious criminal activity, possibly treason.
I agree that emotionally, Pence will feel no urges to pardon Trump. It’s not only for the reasons you cite, but because (I believe) Pence’s attitude toward Trump is virtually identical to the fundamentalist Christian attitude toward Israelis: complete and total and unquestioning support-----right up until the moment the Israelis are flung into Hell.
To be specific, the fundamentalist belief is that Christ can’t return unless Jews inhabit the land of Israel (and the Jerusalem Temple). If they’re there, Christ can return, in order to fight the Anti-Christ–and in the process of this Armageddon, the non-Christians (Israelis among them) will be flung into the pit and suffer eternal hell-fire, etc. While the fundamentalist Christians smugly enjoy their eternity in heaven, of course.
So this is how Pence is able to keep up the “gaze reverently at Trump” effort without a single failure. (If he once lapsed into a look of dislike or contempt, Trump would see it when reviewing photos and footage.) Pence looks at Trump and sees the Hand of God at work—but contrary to what Trump probably believes, Pence’s worshipful attention signals not one particle of respect for Trump or sentiment for Trump or any possible mercy for Trump that would result in a pardon. No: once Trump has served his Godly purpose (getting Pence into the Oval Office), Trump can be flung into that pit of hell-fire.
(Psychologically, Pence must be building up a mountain of resentment at the way he’s had to kiss Trump’s butt and defend Trump’s lies and smile, smile, smile. Psychologically, Pence is probably ready to smile, smile, smile while Trump is frog-marched into custody.)
Impeachment is just the way that he would be removed from office. He’d still have to be tried for any actual crimes he may have committed, probably in Federal court.
I could have sworn I’ve pointed this out before. They don’t believe the Israelis will be flung into the Lake of Fire. They believe they will see Jesus’s return and herald him as their long-awaited Messiah, turning them into Christians.
There are plenty who have decided helping out the evil Trump is okay as long as they get what they want, I agree. I think Pence is among them. But I think what he wants is political power, like most politicians. He wants to be President, so I think he would go along with getting rid of Trump.
Now, will he pardon? Probably. I don’t think the “for the country” argument is very strong, but the “for the party” argument is. And Pence, like most of the Religious Right, will put Party over Country and over his God.
Only if Republicans actually turn on Trump will he be able to not pardon him. Or if Trump dies or something.
It really depends on what source you’re looking at. The version you cite is the ‘nicer’ one, in which Israelis don’t end up burning in hell (but do get converted to Christianity, which might not seem all that ‘nice’ to many).
Dispensationalism and/or Christian Zionism are not monolithic. My point was that many (including, perhaps, Pence), while smiling on Israelis and working for the strength and vitality of the nation of Israel, may be enjoying mental images that are not quite so friendly, as in this account of the belief system:
In any case, fundie Christians who advocate for Israel are likely to be complacently contemplating a future for Israelis in which the Israelis’ autonomy is abruptly terminated.
It’s that sort of mental attitude that I’m guessing Pence has toward Trump: a public support that is powered by religious fervor, underpinned by expectations that God’s future plans for Trump may not be calculated to please Trump himself.