Forgive me for once again referencing Nate Silver, but even at Obama’s worst point as far as national polling (right after the 1st debate), Obama was significantly favored to win by Silver. If you looked at the state polls in aggregate over the course of the campaign (as Silver, among others, did), Obama was always ahead.
The R’s shot themselves in the foot when they got in bed with the religious right. The general (and unfortunately accurate) perception of Republicans as racist, homophobic, misogynistic and anti-intellectual stems mostly from platform planks inserted by the fundamentalist/evangelical crowd. The other Republican agenda - pro-business, lean government, state’s rights, strong defense - still resonates with many. Smartest thing the Repubs could do now is give the boot to the moral majority types, or at least tell them to go sit in the balcony and shut up.
You were perfectly right except that it really wasn’t that close. If it had been a real nail-biter the Republicans could have been forgiven their complacent hopes, but it wasn’t. It was never in a whole lot of doubt – I stopped worrying at all, right after the 47% remark.
Yeah, right. Somebody will say something brilliant, then you’ll grab the baton and say, “You guessed right-That’s my idea!”
Just spill, genius.
Toss me in as another one who was pretty confident a LONG way out that Obama would win. The Republican’s just don’t have the horses to win a national race following a primary. A lot more would have to go wrong to have wounded Obama that badly.
It wasn’t all that modest; Romney wasn’t the only loser.
And the problem isn’t “can they”; they can. The problem is will they - and I have doubts about when or if they will. You don’t correct your mistakes by crawling further into a bubble of self delusion, and so far that seems to be what they are doing; crawling even further into the infamous Republican fact repelling bubble. They won’t correct their course if they are unwilling to admit that it needs to be corrected, and that seems to be their present attitude.
That’s a likely scenario IMHO.
I agree, but there are problems.
[li]The religious fundies and other extremists don’t seem content to just vote Republcian and take empty promises anymore.[/li]
[li]Basic psychology; throwing them out or marginalizing them would be a case of short term pain for long term gain, and people don’t like to do that. They won’t be able to rebrand themselves overnight; if they throw out a major chunk of their base they’ll for a time lose more elections, badly.[/li]
[li]They have to worry - what if they throw out that faction, and fail to rebrand themselves? [/li]
[li]Can they? The true believers, the extremists have had decades to rise in the Republican power structure, and I’m not at all sure that the more practical ones have the power to shunt the fanatics aside anymore.[/li][/ul]
For a week after the election, I was reading and listening to all sorts of Republican viewpoints. I think that almost all of them hit upon some aspects of why they lost, but in the end decided that it was the brand, or Romney, or a combination of excuses like Obama’s gifts and the downfall of America that did it, that it really really wasn’t the rejection of the GOP and its xenophobic, misogynistic tone. Even if they, through some indirect way, took responsibility of the GOP’s problems, they doubled down on the belief that ultimately, they didn’t really need to change their message all that much (they really seem to want to be able to hold on to that hate crowd), they just needed to tweak it. Maybe next time don’t let Akin talk about rape, maybe next time stop the shit about self-deportation.
What they don’t get is that they’ll never be able to muzzle everybody, and there will always be something that pops up. Stop Akin from talking about rape and someone else will say it, or they’ll say something racist. Don’t talk about illegal immigration and somebody will say something about rape. They can’t help not talking about it. It gives me hope in 2014
:rolleyes: Do you understand why the Pubs lost this year? Hint: Not because they ran too far to the left.
His system isn’t like a poll. He gives odds. And I don’t think Obama was “always ahead” in the state polls unless you ignored the margins of error.
Really, you’d think that part would be clear.
For you pc types…the hispanic vote although there is no such thing as a hispanic. Ah duh!
See above regarding hispanics and then study up…of course you can lose an election with one group of people if that group of people have big numbers…you are not thinking good…stay tuned…I will clue you all in real soon. heh heh
IIRC, he was always ahead in the state polls in aggregate- he might have been behind in, say, FL and OH on a specific day, but in any given period of time if all the polls for the states were averaged together than it showed Obama ahead in the electoral college. The last sentence shows that you may not entirely understand what the margin of error is- if a poll shows Obama ahead by 3, and the margin of error is 4, then the poll still shows an Obama lead- but there’s a small but significant chance that Romney actually has a slight lead. Even a lead of 1 in a poll doesn’t mean a “statistical tie” (a meaningless phrase).
In truth the Republicans did not need the mexicans, did not need the single women, did not need the sexual deviants, did not need the negroes…but you are partially right …about the rich…but a little more to it…i will get to it eventually.
I know exactly why they lost and I know exactly how they can win…but I will late a little longer to see if anyone else can come up with the truth…it is not rocket science folks…all you have to do is to analyze the election results…which amazingly many(even big wig repubs)seem unable to do…why? Not because they are stupid …simply because the truth does not fit their agenda…and the truth is far too explosive for their political careers.
heh heh…well at least you are thinking…I just want to see if anyone on here is capable of thinking for themselves…I really find it amazing that no one has figured it out.
Are you quite sure the SDMB is the place for you, Smilin’? There are any number of message boards available, have you given them enough thought? Perhaps a simple Facebook page, where others can voluntarily gather to bask in your radiant awesomeness?
I know exactly why they lost and exactly how they can win…I find it amazing that no one else seems able to.
I also predicted Obama would win and long before Romney was selected and I can prove it…but to proceed to exactly why the Republicans lost…that is the question…and as I have indicated it has not that much to do with requiring anyone to be super-intelligent to figure it out…if that was enough it would have been figured out by the repub big wigs already…in truth they probably know but they cannot tell…so they go off on these tangents of microscopic analysis i.e. not being able to see the forrest for the trees.
heh heh…am I making you feel inadequate? Not my intention…and as I said…one does not have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out.
I do not even know you but I can tell two things about you already.