From what I hear, even some Republicans are upset that Biden isn’t getting the briefings that a President-elect ought to get. But I don’t know if that includes any Cabinet members.
In my view, regardless of who I voted for, it is pretty scary to think that on January 20, Biden will be thrown into situations that have been developing, and - because of Trump - he doesn’t have a good grasp of what’s been going on.
I wonder… If this continues for a few more weeks, the cabinet might want to invoke the 25th, simply to make Pence the acting president, who will then have to authority to allow Biden into those briefings. Any chance of that happening? Are there any other situations which might make the cabinet want to go over Trump’s head in such a manner?
I’d say no; at least not until after the Georgia Senate runoff election on January 5. I think the primary reason that Trump is being humored by the GOP leadership right now is that they don’t want to piss him off, and have him discourage his fans from voting for the Republican candidates in that runoff.
I think the Republicans will do anything they can to avoid having to invoke the 25th Amendment at this point. They just ran Trump as their nominee; it would reflect very poorly on the party is they had to declare him incapable of doing the job two weeks later.
At this point, the Republicans want to just run out the clock and put the Trump presidency behind them in a way that causes them the least amount of embarrassment.
As for Biden not getting briefed, that’s not going to bother the Republicans. They’re probably already making plans to make his job as difficult as they can.
Cabinet can’t do it by themselves. They need the Veep.
If Pence were to do that, he can kiss good-by any chance he has of picking up the True-Trumper supporters in 2024.
And even if he were to do that, what makes you think Trump would just go off to Florida? His consistent m.o. has always been: “If someone attacks you , you attack back ten times harder.” He would have the constitutional right to contest it in Congress. No way the Republicans in Congress want that mess to land in their laps.
And, if Trump contests it, Pence would have to convince two-thirds of the Senate and the House that Trump is incompetent. No way that many Republicans in the House and the Senate would turn on Trump.
I do believe you’ve hit on something that needs to happen: renaming that party. You’ve heard of the True Whig party? Those who support one particular individual need to rename their party True Trumper. That way there’s no doubt about what they believe and care about.
Today is the last day I personally am willing to excuse Trump for this disruption to transition.
I recommend a carrot v stick approach where Trump is told in no uncertain terms that he has been laughed out of every court in the land recently and there is a brand new justice department gearing up right now. Keep up this obstruction and we will test the “self pardon” doctrine you seem to be counting upon. Or cooperate and see if we feel more forgiving and do not put ALL of our effort into seeing you in Federal Prison.
Also, it wouldn’t hurt to find out what dirt Trump has on McConnell and Graham (among others). It is obvious the two of them for sure are not true Trump supporters but are afraid to piss him off for more personal reasons than Republican loyalty. You find the photo Trump obviously has of the two of them naked and greased up with a tethered goat, a donkey, a funky chicken, both of them wearing Mardi Gras beads and they may become more cooperative with Democratic Leaders. (You may assume all of the animals are non-consenting if this does not seem like a scandal to you.)
Invoking the 25th seems like a heavy lift here. Perhaps scaring someone who uses legal threats as a routine part of his business day would be more effective. Just remind him his law team is known as the gang who couldn’t sue straight and your side is eager to draw down. “Say when”
I was never eager to excuse Trump, but was trying to mimic Biden’s example of taking the high road and giving him a short window to come to grips with reality. That grace period ends at beginning of business today.
There is no way anyone will even begin to invoke the 25th unless he becomes even more unhinged, but it is time to put the screws to Trump using other methods. Bate him into a fight he has already lost and make him appear an even bigger fool. He knows a new administration is spooling up, let him know the number one priority will be prosecuting him if he does not concede by 3pm EST. Have it messengered to the White House with verbiage detailing how harming the security of the US Government (by delay or any other means) is a criminal act. Even pull a Lincoln Project mind warp and tell him you HOPE he resists so he will spend the next year in court defending himself – and several years after that incarcerated. Then Mr. Art of the Deal will negotiate for 5pm EST. Let him win and start tomorrow with a more cooperative transition.
Trump will undoubtedly run in 2024, but the party is wise to him now. They will let him stir up the crazies, get things to a fever pitch – then step in and say: "We can’t nominate a loser who couldn’t even win re-election. Let’s go with someone who has a shot at winning. Or: “Trump has already lost to Biden – we need fresh blood.”
In 2016 it was easier to go along to get along. In 2024 they are never going to hand the rains back over to the crazy guy again. For every positive he has six negatives. Get him to do his act, then co-opt his voters and leave him high and dry.
Trump is so petty and so easily manipulated. Get him to say he will never leave even though he lost because it “was rigged”. Now the 25th is a real possibility. Get him to agree to concede in order to avoid prosecution. Tell him his influence is diminished because he lost and won’t admit it – that is why Dems are counting on beating him again in Georgia. Just mess with head enough to get him off balance - - - - okay, poor choice of words. Off balance as in a boxing match, get him to punch at ghosts so even die hard supporters HAVE no choice but to abandon him. Get him to put his weight so far out in front of himself he ends up diving onto the mat.
The real answer to your question is that now he has used up my patience and the better angels are no longer my guide.
Serious but unrelated question. Local true believers are telling me that Biden and Harris are determined to turn the whole world secular and somehow “outlaw Christianity”. Are you hearing anything along those lines? Is anyone reputable saying that? Can you explain that thought to me? I will trust your explanation. (And let’s not derail this thread - one post ought to cover it shouldn’t it?)
I’ve been saying for the past few weeks that if you make a note of everyone that says the virus “will be gone on Nov 4th”, those are the same people that are going to say “it’ll be gone on January 20th” and then “Biden is an awful president, why are we still wearing masks, he’s had plenty of time to get rid of this”.
And, regarding the 25th, if they haven’t used in the first 1400+ days he was there, they’re certainly not going to do it in last 60.
There’s certainly plenty of GOP politicians and supporters that are still holding out hope he’ll make good on promises and don’t want to piss him off. It’s like killing someone because they owe you money. You probably weren’t going to get your money back before, but you’re for sure not going to now.
How does the party do that? They don’t have the ability to keep him off the primary ballots, and if he stirs up his voters and they vote for him, what’s the party going to do about it?
Trump’s M.O. has never been to fight back. It’s to INSULT back or, in private business, let his lawyers just run out the clock.
In actual confrontations, as President, he’s been the least combative President of my lifetime; he throws insults a lot but rarely actually sticks with a plan of action through opposition.
If they invoked the 25th he’d go to Mar-A-Lago and tweet about it a lot. Many insults would be tweeted.
I am now entertaining a fantasy where Kamala Harris runs as the Democratic candidate in 2024 (Biden deciding he’s too old), and the Republicans run someone very middle-of-the-road and inoffensive, with a good chance of winning-- except Trump decides to run as an independent, siphons off about a 1/3 of the Republican votes, and Harris wins by well over 300 electoral votes.
David Allen Green who is a British legal expert I follow I think has made the most penetrating insight into Trump’s motivations for refuse to concede or cooperate:
From his personal selfish perspective, what possible incentive has he to concede this valuable thing for nothing in return? None
And this is the key to understanding the man…The constant pursuit of leverage
While he does not concede, he retains power, attention and money, can promote possibility of running again, keeps a hold over Republicans in Congress, can seek a deal, cause mayhem…Concession, loses all this. With Trumpite assumptions, it would be irrational for him to concede
That’s been my feeling for the past few years. The difference between then and now is that until now he has been doing his job as president (at least in the eyes of those who like his policies) but by refusing to allow Biden in the intelligence briefings, he is now actively interfering with the transition of power, a/k/a obstructing the running of the government. That’s why I thought this might be the tipping point.
Yes, they want him on the ballots. Well the early contests are not always ballot votes, but you want him there building excitement and creating a spectacle. But the party has the contacts and the money, they also have long relationships with party stalwarts like precinct chairs and captains of legislative districts.
They can lay back for a while, give him a chance to fail on his own. But if he starts picking up momentum they will use non running, lower profile party influencers to turn the tide. To plant a seed of doubt, to knock the shine off his armor. To say he is no longer favored by God. Whatever it takes; he hasn’t been able to raise money recently, Biden out raised him by a ton. People love to go see him and wave flags – I am betting fewer people are willing to send him checks.
Near the end of the Democratic primaries in this recent cycle, when it looked like Bernie Sanders was going to be the last candidate standing (and he was posed to lose every crossover and moderate voter including me), why do you think Biden got a huge influx of cash and won primary after primary? Have you considered the possibility that Obama and other party statesmen (and women) moved behind the scenes to give the moderate who could win the crown?
Personally I love RivkahChaya’s scenario where Trump does not come close to gaining the Republican nomination so he runs as a Third Party Candidate.