If Trump really is the stooge of Putin that so many accuse him of being, will he nakedly intervene if it looks like Russia is about to get kicked out of eastern Ukraine and/or Crimea?
First, let me say I don’t think that losing Crimea is on the table, even if Trump is in Putin’s basket. I think the most that could happen is a return to the pre-War state, and maybe not even the breakaway sections. I honestly believe Putin would use nukes before losing Crimea given his pride.
Okay, back to NOT fighting the hypothetical. If Putin has actual dirt on Trump, and not just Trump’s idolization as a Strong Man just like He Is, I am 100% positive that he’ll involve himself.
Heck, given Trump’s desire for the Peace Prize and his insistence on inserting himself into everything to claim the credit, I’m 95% certain he’d insert himself into any Ukrainian settlement WITHOUT Putin’s request.
Ukraine is, sadly, going to need ongoing international support to recover and rebuild, as well as allies to secure their independence even if the Russians withdraw to the prior borders.
Even most of the supporters in the EU aren’t going to push hard for the return of Crimea (obviously IMHO), probably just the return of the status quo. Given the probable lukewarm support at that point, Trump has any number of tools and levers to heavily Pressure Ukraine at that point.
He could easily announce on the eve of such losses that he made a call to Putin and secured “Peace in Our Time” and present it as another fait accompli (and still screw it up) where Ukraine is pressured to stop, even though it shouldn’t have been America/Trump’s choice to declare the war over.
No.
Unlikely scenario anyway (Russia getting kicked out of Ukrainian territory it already possesses).
Trump is too much of a coward to do anything openly. He might make it harder for Ukraine to get US war materiel, but Europe is pretty much covering what the US did at the beginning anyway.
What exactly could Trump do to sabotage such a victory? The Ukrainians are already operating mostly independent of US support at this rate, although still getting a few missiles and things from America. If Trump were to order the American military to somehow wage war on Russia’s behalf, not even the most brainwashed officer would do so. The rest of Europe has steeply stepped up defense spending, and although their gears will take years to turn, they too have become more American-independent.