Yeah, but the thing is, there are going to be plenty of white people, especially newly impoverished white people, in that throng. That’s going to make the Republican messaging a lot more difficult.
Fully aware of that. “Step aside” was meant as stepping aside as the presumptive nominee which is exactly what LBJ. “Declining to run“ would be clearer.
No way he pulls out. He’s going to get what he wants- out of the White House. He never wanted the job and never actually did it. Sitting on the toilet and tweeting is not the same as being president. So he keeps running and loses. Then he gets to claim the election was rigged and then start the MAGA TV network where his supporters can tune in and watch his sycophants whine about perpetual victimhood. He cleans up on the advertising dollars and gets out of the job he never wanted. Win win for him. He doesn’t give any more flying fucks about what this does to the GOP than he gives flying fucks about Russian bounties on the heads of US soldiers.
Very true (and yes, plenty of white people are going to be in major economic trouble by November 3—and not all of them are going to be able to find a way to blame it on Obama). (Though many will try.)
Conceivable, except then he gives the Senate to the Democrats, who might ratify the judge who rules against his self-pardon.
The rational problem with giving up is that the public mood can change. I don’t think it would take that many highly publicized murders, not committed by police, to swing a lot of white Americans back towards Trump.
Plus, no one knows whether GOP legislatures might treat the popular vote in their state as advisory, and then send a list of Trump electors to D.C., where the final result is scheduled to be announced by Mike Pence on the important date of January 6, 2021. Do I really think this is going to happen? No. Do I think Trump will try it mainstream media says he lost? Yes.
Trump’s best strategy is to hope for a legitimate surprise win and then try some sort of Hayes-Tilden style manipulation if he doesn’t. Trump may not know who Tilden was, but someone on his staff is already planning for Biden to be the next Tilden.
One thing that concerns me is that Trump’s numbers are actually holding up better than I would have expected. He’s still pulling 41% approval according to the RCP polling averages, which I think is even better than what GW Bush was polling toward the end of his presidency if memory serves me correctly.
People may just get used to the virus. I would have thought that the Heartland would have abandoned him long ago over China tariff policy, but that largely hasn’t happened - at least not yet. He’s definitely taken a standing 8-count in recent months, but he’s not out yet by any means.
What will be interesting is in the fall how many people running for house or senate show up at his rallies. If he looks like he is going to lose many may not want to show up to support him.
For example In 2004 Kerry/Edwards had a rally in Raleigh and very few other Dems showed up to support them. I believe a few guys with safe seats showed up.
I think this might be Trump’s plan (to the extent he has a plan). He may be hoping a race war will cause white people to rally to him.
There are a few problems with this plan (putting aside the immorality of pushing for a race war). First, Trump is running against Joe Biden. Biden doesn’t scare white voters. Second, even if Trump does succeed in causing enough racial problems that fear of it becomes an election issue, he won’t benefit from it. Voters will see him as the cause of the problem rather than the solution.
This was my thought as well. For all the reasons outlined in the posts above, there is no way that Trump is actually going to bow out. But the fact that its Fox News that is bringing this story out is very interesting. Usually this is the sort of story that Fox would suppress, or immediately discount as fake news. But in this case they are the the ones taking a lead on this. So the question is why. I see three possibilities.
- It would be shocking news if true, so they are just putting it out there as sensationalist clickbait to win eyeballs
- Their guys are the ones that had the contacts and got the scoop so they are just engaging in standard independent journalistic practice performing, their duty to keep the US citizenry informed. (Bwa ha ha ha had you going there for a second didn’t I)
- They see the writing on the wall and are beginning the process of distancing themselves from Trump before he completely implodes.
Supporting Trump is like a bubble market. You can make a lot of money at it so long as you get out before everyone else does. If Fox news is starting to get cold feet that could be the beginning of the end for Trump. The only way that Trump has kept his 40% is that they live in a media bubble that only tells them the good things about Trump and tells them that any bad stuff they hear about him is lies. If Fox stops carrying his water he’s done for.
You forgot possibility #4:
- Fox’s real backers (Koch? etc.) have now lined up a competent RW tyrant to succeed Trump, a guy who sorta ran off the ranch once they’d assisted him into the WH. “Leaking” Trump having second thoughts now is step one of switching him out for the new guy. Who’ll be just as much a favorite of the MAGA crowd but a lot more dangerous.
If soon you see Fox, Hannity, Limbaugh et al coalescing behind one new RW standard bearer be afraid. Be very afraid. And be sure to vote.
I could be wrong, but it’s probably too late for the Republicans to switch to a new candidate.
Trump still has his base very much in tact. Yes, he may only have just that - his base - in November, and he may lose the election because 35-38% of the electorate isn’t enough.
But the strategy may be to let the presidency go and save the senate, but keep the base intact regardless of what happens. Trump still has his base, and he is doing everything in his power to keep them in the fold. Republicans cannot challenge Trump publicly because they made a deal with the devil of xenophobia between 2012 and 2016, and Trump was the product of that pact.
As I’ve alluded to before, we sometimes put too much focus on Trump while ignoring the bigger picture, which is the political alignment between the American aristocracy and white Christian nationalists. I don’t think this goes away with Trump’s absence.
For this reason, I expect Trump to be at his absolute worst between now and January 2021, whatever the result. He will be one nasty little wannabe tyrant.
Trump will not quit. He will make every effort to finish out at least one term because:
- The second he leaves office, he faces a real possibility of indictment and all that entails.
- He won an upset victory in 2016 (by a wide margin, in his mind) and thinks he can do it again.
- He’s been rescued from all of his screwups in the past, so his mind cannot process the fact that the world might allow him to suffer a public and humiliating defeat.
- Republicans (and Trump) himself have never been punished for their double-down strategy, so they’ll keep doing it until it does fail.
- He doesn’t mind being President. All he does is eat cheeseburgers, hold rallies, play golf and tweet from the toilet. He likes the power and prestige, and he’s indifferent to whether he’s doing a good or bad job.
No way Trump quits. Not unless he can duck out a side door at the next Helsinki summit and seek asylum in Russia.
Romney is 100% sure to lose; Trump I’d put at 90%. (If the election were held next week Trump would be 99% likely to lose, but it’s not until November.) A Romney candidacy would mean the really hardcore Trumpists would all stay home. It would be a white flag, not a real nomination.
Trump has something Romney doesn’t have; genuinely enthusiastic followers.
I wonder about the possibility of Trump quitting after the election and before Biden’s inauguration. Something like tossing the WH keys to Pence and telling him “lock up when you leave”, then he and Melania fly off to the other side of the world.
That seems like Trump could still see it as ‘taking his ball and going home’ and since he doesn’t give a shit about political “norms” then I don’t see how anything he does could be a complete shock.
Other than sticking around, riding it out, and having a genuine “passing of the torch” to Biden on January 20th - THAT would be a complete shock, at least to me.
Yeah there’s no way there’ll be a sporting concession and orderly transition of power. That’s simply not happening.
If he does lose the election, I see him contesting it strongly for as long as Republicans let him. I expect some (or many) Republicans are so dirty that they can’t afford to cross Trump under any circumstances. But an electoral mandate would empower any moderates/principled R’s to stop putting up with his shit.
To reiterate, there will be no orderly transition of power. Anybody’s guess whether it actually gets violent or veers into constitutional crisis territory. I have no idea what levers of power Bill Bar can pull when it’s his ass on the line.
I’ve been wondering something about this as it ties into Trump’s business history. When a business of his has gone badly, he has bailed and declared bankruptcy (mostly losing other peoples’ money) before the loss could really damage him. I’ve been trying to make this pattern fit the current situation, but it doesn’t seem to quite work. The presidency is his biggest prize (for the prestige and power, not for the negligible accomplishments nor for his place in history). I can’t see him giving it up willingly until there is absolutely no way out and he is being forcefully escorted out of the building. And maybe not even then.
By the way, not the topic, but please everyone, please don’t start taking his defeat at the polls for granted. Do whatever you can to get out the vote, because you know that’s what they are doing.
But you can’t ignore the opposite side of that; Trump also has genuinely enthusiastic opponents. There are plenty of people who won’t vote for Trump but would vote for an ordinary Republican like Romney. And there are people who are only willing to vote for Biden because it’s the only way to get Trump out of office.
You and I view this upcoming transition nightmare exactly the same. We’re in for a very rough ride, even if the election is a landslide and decisive.
I’d like to see Bill Barr disbarred. Tout de suite.
A girl can dream.
If Biden wins, what are the chances Trump even attends the inauguration?