I would prefer that people focus on the ACTUAL ways Trump is trying to meddle with democracy - voter suppression, gerrymandering, voter ID laws, media capture, politically motivated prosecution, etc - instead of conjuring up fantasies about armed coups and cancelled elections.
IMO, concerns about both are not at all unreasonable. But, you do you.
Is there any point in discussing whether he will run for re-election if you’re thinking that he’s going to have a coup?
Yup. Do you think that civil wars are impossible?
The means by which he would seize power illegally are the same as the means by which every dictator in history has seized power: By getting the military to support him, and then telling the military who supports him to shoot anyone who doesn’t support him. It’s not complicated, and it’s certainly not impossible.
I don’t think a man who’s too terrified of American military casualties to send ground troops into Iran is going to have the balls to start a war on American soil where mass death would be GUARANTEED.
I think the time not to worry about what Trump might do is so far behind us that it isn’t even visible in the strongest rear view mirror allowed by law.
Sending in ground troops to Iran isn’t necessary to keep his own power, so he’s not compelled to do it. If he had to put tanks on the streets and kill millions of Americans for his own power, he’d do it. The dude let COVID spread on purpose at first because he thought it would hurt more of the people who hated him than people who loved him.
It’s possible, but it’s not certain. A coup may very well succeed - in fact, it’s likely to succeed - but things can always go wrong. If his coup fails, Trump may find himself hanging from a lamppost, and I think he’s too chickenshit to take that risk.
So why didn’t he five years ago?
He probably thought his attempt to kill democrats in congress and/or his false electors plan was sufficient. I’m not saying he’s brave or his foresight is perfect, I’m saying that literally nothing is more important to him than his own self-aggrandizement. He wouldn’t be stopped by any law, any sense of reason, proportionality, or morality. That doesn’t necessarily mean he would jump to the most extreme solution right off the bat if he thought a less risky one would do.
Stray thought regarding the “bank robbery” analogy…
Say Billie Joe and his crew robs the bank. They take hostages and a security guard gets shot and killed. Possibly other people including customers and bank employees. The cops show up and a stand off ensues. The bank robbers eventually give up and surrender.
The security guard is still dead. People are in the hospital. Innocent people are still irrevocably traumatized. The banks operating costs go up in the aftermath. (Insurance, more security guards, etc…) The damage has already been done and is very real just from the attempt. Even if the criminals didn’t get away with it.
Not that it was really “his plan” or anything, but after it didn’t work, he didn’t escalate - he just gave up and slinked back to Florida.
Because he hadn’t made preparations for escalation. He’s making those preparations now, though. Like Hegseth’s purges in the military.
No, he won’t run. He’ll be dead.
If he’s not, for some reason, Heritage Foundation will make that decision of whether or not they can sway SCOTUS once again. They’re the brains (sort of), Trump’s the stooge of distraction.
This is a fair point, but may explain why he’s much more aggressive about filling the military with his cronies this time around. It wouldn’t shock me if Trump did try to escalate and there were enough people who actually served their country to stop him, though this is pure speculation. If you recall, the military did feel it necessary to release an internal memo that said that it was not going to interfere in the election. A really unusual move that should’ve been very worrying that was sanewashed away by the media like the rest of it.
He’ll have to get started about 30 years ago. One term simply isn’t long enough to change an institution as long-established and small-c conservative as the US military into being loyal to one man over the Constitution, and the changes Hegseth is making are weakening the military rather than strengthening it because he’s an incompetent boob who values macho-man performative masculinity over actual readiness.
My answer to the OP is No, for a variety of reasons: his health (or lack of life), his sagging popularity, the legal barriers, it’s all too much trouble for a prize of dubious utility. He has already grafted more than he ever “earned” in his entire business career. I think he will, in his own view, go out a winner and exult in his victory over the suckers.
You need to read the 12th Amendment again. If no candidate has a majority of electors (for whatever reason), each House delegation gets one vote, with the candidate getting 26 or more votes becoming president. California gets one vote; Wyoming gets one vote.
FYI, here is a gift link to a recent New York Times article on how the Heritage Foundation is in an internal struggle, as I understand it, over whether it should support Tucker Carlson, who is seen as antisemetic.
In short, the Heritage Foundation isn’t as powerful as it once was. (I think the Koch brothers are similarly sidelined lately, after having been powerful influencers for a long time.)
Well, not that I think it’s possible, but…
Instead of sending in a bunch of freakin’ idiots with horn-hats and MAGA shirts who wander around and shit on desks in the Capitol, he might just try to send in troops to seize “illegal ballots” or whatever shit he can think up. Instead of 400 whack-jobs wandering around, picture 40,000 heavily armed troops with attack helicopters.
Again, not likely to happen.