Will Trump's conviction affect the election

I’ve wavered on this.

The wrongdoing in this particular case is much milder from a legal point of view than the other cases. And not even that comprehensible to the lay person (i.e. me).

So initially I figured this is a win for MAGA; they can use this as evidence for the “trump as victim” narrative, and no one actually cares about the crime itself.

But right now I’m more inclined the other way.

Firstly, because of the whole porn star angle.
I know it shouldn’t matter and that it’s irrelevant to the case really, but there’s a lot of shoulda’s and oughta’s that are broken around Trump; this is one time it’s working in the favor of good.
It’s embarrassing, and Trump can never admit to it, so his apologists just don’t know what to do with it. It’s also a big part of why his defence was a joke.

Which brings me to the second part: there is no defence for this, no alternative description of events. Of course, this is true of all the cases, but this is the one on the table right now.
When I’ve spoken to MAGAts about this case, they usually present no story of what “really” happened at all. The few that try some kind of defence usually can’t answer the question: “So Cohen shouldn’t have got to jail then?”

From what I’ve seen of the MAGA TV pundits, they are exploding with rage at everybody, and not talking any specifics of the case. I’ve got to think that to the average person, who is not tuned into politics or this case, they will just see them as the lunatics they are.